Indian Defense
Pakistan’s Chokehold On Taliban May Be Slipping
The pot is boiling over and the first few shots of a civil war have already been fired in Afghanistan; Islamabad is in a dilemma, as its calculations go awry
by Col Satish Tyagi
The veritable arm of the ISI, the Taliban were nurtured in the cradle and nursery of terrorism in Pakistan, whose involvement with the Taliban and the pressure on them continue unabated even after the last US troops have left the soil of Afghanistan. Pakistan continues to apply its chokehold on Taliban lest they wiggle out, once they are firmly settled in the seat of governance in Afghanistan for the second term. The quick dash and jump landing in Kabul by the head of Pakistan’s premier intelligence agency, ISI, Lieutenant General Faiz Hameed, immediately after the Taliban took control of the power and before the interim government was announced, is a grim reminder of the same. The frontrunner for the top post and almost the obvious choice of the Taliban—barring the opposition of Sirajuddin Haqqani and his cohorts—Abdul Ghani Baradar was relegated to the post of Deputy Prime Minister. A lot of calculations and negotiations went in from the luxuries and comforts of Serena Hotel in Kabul to place favourable cards at the right places. But Sirajuddin Haqqani, the man who bombed the Indian embassy, bagged for the Interior Ministry, a clear sign of what the ISI is looking at in the coming days.
On the one hand, Pakistan was gleefully successful in displaying its hold on its protégé Taliban to the rest of the world, but on the other hand, it also became amply clear to keen watchers that Taliban 2.0 are not the same as Taliban 1.0 when it comes to their venerations, deference, and obeisance to the dictates of Islamabad. Shots were fired in the compound where Abdul Ghani Baradar was made to forcefully stay in Kabul; he ultimately left for Kandahar, perhaps not only injured physically but in his soul too. Reportedly, the new crop of younger Taliban is averse to Pakistan meddling in the affairs of Afghanistan. The conduct of the ISI chief in the close confines of the Serena Hotel too did not go unnoticed by not only the watchful eyes of the people around but also the Pakistan Army hierarchy itself.
In a joint news conference with the British Foreign Secretary, Foreign Minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi termed the Afghan Taliban as a “new reality”, adding about the so-called helplessness of Pakistan, which is left with no other option but to work with the neighbouring country. Yes, the new realities in the sense he didn’t mention are a pointer to a perception that all is not well between the two of them. It is worth noting that the ISI chief was unable to meet the senior leadership of the Taliban on his recent visit to Kabul.
The Taliban are mostly Pashtuns who have historically been the ruling group in Afghanistan and have dynamically fought to keep their predominance throughout Afghan history. The desire to reunite with the Pashtuns across the Durand Line in Pakistan and all Pashtuns joining hands is stronger now than ever before, especially amongst the Kandahar faction of the Taliban. A large number of Pashtuns from Afghanistan also took refuge in various regions of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces in Pakistan during the time of war. Voices of independent Pashtuns have been reverberating in Pakistan after the Pakistan Army carried out excesses such as abduction, torture and collective punishment against entire villages and tribes in the Pashtun tribal areas. The main role in uniting the Pashtuns has been played by the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement, which is a social movement based in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan for protecting Pashtuns and their rights. The movement was founded in May 2014 by eight students of Dera Ismail Khan. It organized a protest march from Dera to Islamabad for a sit-in there sometime ago. It gathered huge support from the people who joined in on the way as it progressed, and Islamabad had to send in a minister to intervene.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Balochistan provinces have been on the boil for quite some time, but now with the Taliban in power again in the Pashtun dominated Afghanistan, the hopes to reunite have been refuelled. As per one report, there have been many incidents of people protesting against the government in Pakistan. Media is blocked and most of the news from the region is not available. There have been numerous incidents of armed conflicts in both Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa provinces ever since Taliban has come to power.
The Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) is yet another worrying factor for Pakistan as 36 TTP related incidents toom place in the last one month itself. These incidents have claimed more than 50 lives of Pakistani soldiers. Seeing the gravity of the situation, Pakistan has sought the Taliban’s support in resolving this issue.
Not only this, but there are also reports of the killing of ISIS (Khorasan) and counter killing of Taliban. ISIS(K) militants reportedly fired at a Taliban vehicle in Khwaja Sayaran district of Parwan province in Afghanistan, killing four members of Taliban on Tuesday. In addition, local sources reported a terrorist attack on a Taliban checkpoint in Kunar province’s Chawkai district on the same day, killing 2 Taliban and wounding another.
There are also reports of explosions and gunfire in the city of Jalalabad, with no confirmation of casualties. It was also learned that an intelligence officer was among the dead Taliban fighters in the city’s first district, in a September 25 bombing. Members of the agency are directly involved in killing civilians in the city, as part of a crackdown on the undesirable Salafists.
It is worth noting that at the moment ISIS(K) is making its presence felt in Nangarhar, Kunar, Kabul and Parwan provinces, and the list is likely to grow very soon as they are spreading their footprints to other provinces too.
All these reports indicate that the pot is boiling over and the first few shots of a civil war have already been fired in Afghanistan; Islamabad is in a dilemma, as its calculations go awry. In a media report, Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley maintains that the relationship between Pakistan and Taliban is going to become “increasingly complex”. Similarly, General Frank McKenzie, commander of US Central Command recently said that Pakistan will find it not easy to deflect the pressure coming from Afghanistan because the pressure from the US and its allies no longer exists.
Pakistan’s strong clutches would, however, not want the Taliban slip away. Islamabad is now waiting to be done with providing a veneer of stability to Taliban and is looking for some sort of diplomatic recognition for Taliban. Islamabad is near bankrupt but would not change the colour of its coat and is likely to focus on its proxy assets on Indian soil and intensify terror activities and other actions of sabotage in Kashmir as well as other states of India.
Time is running out with the winters fast approaching and the passes in Kashmir closing down within the next one month or so, maximum infiltration attempts are expected during this season of festivities in India.
Indian Defense
INS Arihant’s Nuke-Capable K-4 Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile ‘Ready To Roll’
The solid-fuelled K-4 missile is being developed by DRDO to arm the country’s nuclear-powered submarines in the shape of INS Arihant and its under-development sister vessels. INS Arihant, which became fully operational in November 2018 to complete India’s nuclear triad, is currently armed with the much shorter K-15 missiles with a 750 km range.
“The K-4 is now virtually ready for its serial production to kick-off. The two tests have demonstrated its capability to emerge straight from underwater and undertake its parabolic trajectory,” said a source.
India has the land-based Agni missiles, with the over 5,000-km Agni-V inter-continental ballistic missile now in the process of being inducted, and fighter jets jury-rigged to deliver nuclear weapons. But INS Arihant gives the country’s deterrence posture much more credibility because nuclear-powered submarines armed with nuclear-tipped missiles are considered the most secure, survivable and potent platforms for retaliatory strikes.
Once the K-4 missiles are inducted, they will help India narrow the gap with countries like the US, Russia and China, which have over 5,000-km range SLBMs. The K-4 missiles are to be followed by the K-5 and K-6 missiles in the 5,000-6,000 km range class.
The 6,000-ton INS Arihant, which is propelled by an 83 MW pressurised light-water reactor at its core, in turn, is to be followed by INS Arighat, which was launched in 2017. The next generation of nuclear submarines, currently called S-4 and S-4*, will be much larger in size.
Indian Defense
After Upgradation, Sukhoi Su-30MKI Indigenisation To Reach 78%
India has received clearance to upgrade 84 Sukhoi Su-30MKI fighter jets, which will result in 78% indigenization after the upgrade
In a significant step towards bolstering its military might with indigenously developed technology, India is poised to witness its Russian-origin Sukhoi Su-30MKI fighter jets evolve into a domestic platform. Speaking at a recent lecture.
The upgrade program is being led by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) in partnership with the Indian Air Force and other partners. The upgrade is expected to cost US$7.5 billion.
This initiative is a part of a larger effort by the Indian Air Force to modernize its ageing fleet. Air Chief Marshal Chaudhari asserted the critical role of an offensive air force as demonstrated in current global conflicts and emphasized India’s move towards an indigenized arsenal. To this end, the IAF has been proactive, from upgrading its Mirage 2000 to enhancing its MiG-29 fleet.
In summary, the IAF’s commitment to updating their combat forces with the latest technology, including shifting to fifth-generation fighter jets, ensures operational preparedness and a strong deterrence capability. The gradual indigenization of its air fleet marks a pivotal shift in India’s defence landscape, reducing dependency on foreign imports and fostering technological sovereignty.
Indian Defense
Akash Weapon System Exports For The Armenian Armed Forces Gathers Pace
According to unconfirmed reports, Armenia is a top contender for an export order for Akash SAM system manufactured by Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL).
The Akash export version will also be slightly different from the one inducted by the armed forces. The 100-km range air-to-air Astra missiles, now entering production after successful trials from Sukhoi-30MKI fighters, also have “good export potential”, said sources.
Akash is a “tried, tested and successfully inducted systems”. Indian armed forces have ordered Akash systems worth Rs 24,000 crore over the years, and MoD inked a contract in Mar 2023 of over Rs 9,100 crores for improved Akash Weapon System
BDL is a government enterprise under the Ministry of Defence that was established in 1970. BDL manufactures surface-to-air missiles and delivers them to the Indian Army. BDL also offers its products for export.
Akash Weapon System
The AWS is a Short Range Surface to Air Missile (SRSAM) Air Defence System, indigenously designed and developed by Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). In order to meet aerial threats, two additional Regiments of AWS with Upgradation are being procured for Indian Army for the Northern borders. Improved AWS has Seeker Technology, Reduced Foot Print, 360° Engagement Capability and improved environmental parameters.
The project will give a boost to the Indian missile manufacturing industry in particular and the indigenous defence manufacturing ecosystem as a whole. The project has overall indigenous content of 82% which will be increased to 93% by 2026-27.
The induction of the improved AWS into the Indian Army will increase India’s self-reliance in Short Range Missile capability. This project will play a role in boosting the overall economy by avoiding outgo of precious foreign exchange to other countries, increasing employment avenues in India and encouraging Indian MSMEs through components manufacturing. Around 60% of the project cost will be awarded to the private industry, including MSMEs, in maintaining the supply chain of the weapon system, thereby creating large scale of direct and indirect employment.
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