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‘Taliban Won’t Pursue The Kashmir Cause’

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‘Taliban Won’t Pursue The Kashmir Cause’

The Taliban’s strength — already considerable — will only increase once the US withdrawal is complete. So, it makes sense for India to try to have relations, even if only modest, with Afghanistan’s most powerful non-State actor.” “All other key regional players had already recognised this earlier on. India was the last to come around to the importance of reaching out to the Taliban.”

Dr Michael Kugelman, deputy director and senior associate for South Asia discusses India’s challenges in dealing with the Taliban.

India has not recognised the Taliban’s legitimacy in the past. What are the challenges confronting India in dealing with the Taliban which has historically been anti-India?

Certainly, it’s a big gamble for New Delhi to have formally reached out to the Taliban, given that the insurgents are no friends of New Delhi. Ideologically, they are about as different as two entities can get. There are several risks associated with India trying to engage with the Taliban.

One is that the Taliban flat out refuses New Delhi’s outreach. Another, if the Taliban is receptive to engagement, is that Pakistan could fear that New Delhi is trying to drive a wedge between Pakistan and the Taliban.

And this could have troubling implications for India-Pakistan relations.

That said, for New Delhi, the potential benefits of opening up communication channels with the Taliban outweigh the potential costs. With Afghanistan set to become more unstable and violent, New Delhi’s core interest will be ensuring the security of its interests and nationals in Afghanistan.

The Taliban has targeted them before. By engaging with the Taliban, India is in a better position to try to gain an understanding with the insurgents that they not attack Indians in Afghanistan.

More broadly, the Taliban’s strength — already considerable — will only increase once the US withdrawal is complete. So, it makes sense for India to try to have relations, even if only modest, with Afghanistan’s most powerful non-State actor.

All other key regional players had already recognised this earlier on. India was the last to come around to the importance of reaching out to the Taliban.

In view of the announcement of a new diplomatic front comprising the United States, Pakistan, Afghanistan and Uzbekistan to enhance regional connectivity and trade — does India face the risk of an erosion of influence in Afghanistan?

So long as the current Afghan government remains in power, New Delhi’s influence will endure.

It arguably has closer relations with Kabul than does any other country in the region. It’s true, though, that India’s influence on regional diplomacy on Afghanistan has to this point been marginal — especially as so much of it has been led by China and especially Pakistan.

New Delhi is trying to step up its game on regional diplomacy, but its role in the peace and reconciliation process will necessarily be limited.

And this is an irony, given that it has such close ties to the Afghan government.

The new four-nation diplomatic initiative is significant because it shows that Pakistan’s efforts to pursue its vision of a more geo-economics-focused foreign policy have legs. It’s also a rare success by the US in trying to encourage more Afghanistan-Pakistan cooperation — long a goal of Washington’s.

But its influence shouldn’t be overstated. It’s more of an aspirational initiative than a formal agreement — the idea is to look toward cooperating on peace, stability, and connectivity.

But so long as Afghanistan remains at war, it’s hard to imagine much forward movement. Those that call it an ‘alternate quad’ are wildly overstating its capacities and influence.

How will an enhanced role of China and Pakistan in Afghanistan be detrimental to India’s strategic interests?

It doesn’t bode well for Indian interests. New Delhi confronts a reality where many of the key regional players are either rivals of India (China and Pakistan) or friends that have lost some momentum in their relations with India (Iran, Russia, Turkey).

This is, in fact, a similar conundrum faced by the US.

New Delhi is intent to get around this problem by ramping up its broader regional diplomatic efforts, and participating on high levels in discussions on Afghanistan within large multilateral forums. The good news for India is that it is a member of many of the key Afghanistan-focused forums — such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation and Heart of Asia-Istanbul Process.

Additionally, India has a short-lived opportunity to play a leadership role on Afghanistan through its brief presidency of the UN Security Council, which began on August 1.

Russia has been developing closer ties with Pakistan. What difficulties does Russia’s growing proximity with Pakistan pose for India?

Growing Russia-Pakistan ties are another indication of India’s diplomatic challenges with Afghanistan. Russia-Pakistan interests align in Afghanistan more than do Russia-India interests. Moscow is less concerned than is New Delhi about the spectre of a Taliban government; for the Russians, ISIS-Khorasan — which counts Central Asian militants among its members — is arguably a greater concern.

It’s no coincidence that Pakistan-Russia relations have grown closer at the same time that US-India relations have really taken off, and US-Russia relations have continued to get worse. But what’s notable in the Afghanistan context is that the US has decoupled its tensions with Russia from broader regional diplomacy efforts in Afghanistan.

It’s no small matter that the US has participated in the Afghanistan-focused ‘Troika Plus’ initiative that also features Pakistan, China, and Russia. Ultimately, this grouping underscores the challenges India faces in becoming a more influential regional player on Afghanistan issues.

India has played a vital role in rebuilding Afghanistan — roads, bridges, hospitals, its parliament etc. How can India preserve its interests?

The best bet is to do everything possible to push for a political settlement that ends the war. But for now at least, New Delhi has limited ability to do so. The next best option, which India is likely already pursuing, based on its recent outreach to the Taliban, is to find a way to convince the Taliban not to target Indian interests in Afghanistan.

Afghans perhaps have the greatest regard for Indians. What advantage does that bring to India’s attempts at reshaping its Afghan policy?

It’s definitely an asset. But I fear it’s a misplaced asset, given that it doesn’t help India with its prime goal of the moment: Becoming a more influential player in regional diplomatic efforts focused on peace and reconciliation.

The strong support that India enjoys among Afghans can potentially be helpful with New Delhi’s initial outreach to the Taliban. If New Delhi is in a position to convey to the Taliban its desire that Indian interests not be targeted, it can argue that the Taliban risks alienating local communities if it tries to undermine or otherwise imperil Indian activities and interests in Afghanistan.

To be sure, the Taliban isn’t exactly beholden to Afghan public opinion. But if it truly cares about legitimacy and wants to demonstrate that it really has the interests of common Afghans in mind, then it should acknowledge the Afghan public’s high regard for Indians and refrain from doing anything against India.

Will the ascent of the Taliban embolden terror groups operating in PoK and Afghan mercenary jihadi activity across the LoC into India?

The Taliban is an Afghanistan-focused group, and so it won’t call on regional militants to pursue the Kashmir cause. But the Taliban’s advances and territorial seizures are inspiring these regional militants, and an overthrow of the government would really embolden these other groups in a big way.

So there’s certainly cause for concern. The likes of LeT (Lashkar e Tayiba) and JeM (Jaish e Mohammad) could be emboldened, and prompted to replicate in Kashmir what the Taliban did in Afghanistan. The big question here is Pakistan. Would it try to keep these groups on a tight leash, as it generally has in recent years amid strong pressure from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) and other international bodies?

Or would it encourage them to act?

The answer depends on what Pakistan’s status within FATF would be. Islamabad is less likely to collude with India-focused militants if it’s still trying to get itself off the FATF watch list.

The answer also depends on the state of India-Pakistan relations. If tensions are deep, Islamabad will have less to lose by sending militants across the border.

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INS Arihant’s Nuke-Capable K-4 Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile ‘Ready To Roll’

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INS Arihant’s Nuke-Capable K-4 Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile ‘Ready To Roll’


NEW DELHI: India tested its nuclear capable K-4 submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM), designed to have a strike range of 3,500 km, for the second time in six days on Friday. The missile test, as the one conducted on January 19, was undertaken from an undersea platform in the shape of a submersible pontoon off the coast of Andhra Pradesh according to a report by Rajat Pandit of TOI.

The solid-fuelled K-4 missile is being developed by DRDO to arm the country’s nuclear-powered submarines in the shape of INS Arihant and its under-development sister vessels. INS Arihant, which became fully operational in November 2018 to complete India’s nuclear triad, is currently armed with the much shorter K-15 missiles with a 750 km range.

“The K-4 is now virtually ready for its serial production to kick-off. The two tests have demonstrated its capability to emerge straight from underwater and undertake its parabolic trajectory,” said a source.

India has the land-based Agni missiles, with the over 5,000-km Agni-V inter-continental ballistic missile now in the process of being inducted, and fighter jets jury-rigged to deliver nuclear weapons. But INS Arihant gives the country’s deterrence posture much more credibility because nuclear-powered submarines armed with nuclear-tipped missiles are considered the most secure, survivable and potent platforms for retaliatory strikes.

Once the K-4 missiles are inducted, they will help India narrow the gap with countries like the US, Russia and China, which have over 5,000-km range SLBMs. The K-4 missiles are to be followed by the K-5 and K-6 missiles in the 5,000-6,000 km range class.

The 6,000-ton INS Arihant, which is propelled by an 83 MW pressurised light-water reactor at its core, in turn, is to be followed by INS Arighat, which was launched in 2017. The next generation of nuclear submarines, currently called S-4 and S-4*, will be much larger in size.





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After Upgradation, Sukhoi Su-30MKI Indigenisation To Reach 78%

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After Upgradation, Sukhoi Su-30MKI Indigenisation To Reach 78%


India has received clearance to upgrade 84 Sukhoi Su-30MKI fighter jets, which will result in 78% indigenization after the upgrade

In a significant step towards bolstering its military might with indigenously developed technology, India is poised to witness its Russian-origin Sukhoi Su-30MKI fighter jets evolve into a domestic platform. Speaking at a recent lecture.

The upgrade program is being led by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) in partnership with the Indian Air Force and other partners. The upgrade is expected to cost US$7.5 billion.

The Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) granted Acceptance of Necessity (AoN) for the upgrade. The upgrade is part of India’s efforts to improve the capabilities of its primary fighter aircraft, it refers to as the “Super Sukhoi”.

This initiative is a part of a larger effort by the Indian Air Force to modernize its ageing fleet. Air Chief Marshal Chaudhari asserted the critical role of an offensive air force as demonstrated in current global conflicts and emphasized India’s move towards an indigenized arsenal. To this end, the IAF has been proactive, from upgrading its Mirage 2000 to enhancing its MiG-29 fleet.

In summary, the IAF’s commitment to updating their combat forces with the latest technology, including shifting to fifth-generation fighter jets, ensures operational preparedness and a strong deterrence capability. The gradual indigenization of its air fleet marks a pivotal shift in India’s defence landscape, reducing dependency on foreign imports and fostering technological sovereignty.





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Akash Weapon System Exports For The Armenian Armed Forces Gathers Pace

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Akash Weapon System Exports For The Armenian Armed Forces Gathers Pace


According to unconfirmed reports, Armenia is a top contender for an export order for Akash SAM system manufactured by Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL).

While there is no official confirmation because of the sensitivities involved, documents suggest that the order for the same has already been placed the report further added.
There are nine countries, in turn, which have shown interest in the indigenously-developed Akash missile systems, which can intercept hostile aircraft, helicopters, drones and subsonic cruise missiles at a range of 25-km. They are Kenya, Philippines, Indonesia, UAE, Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Vietnam and Algeria reported TOI.

The Akash export version will also be slightly different from the one inducted by the armed forces. The 100-km range air-to-air Astra missiles, now entering production after successful trials from Sukhoi-30MKI fighters, also have “good export potential”, said sources.

Akash is a “tried, tested and successfully inducted systems”. Indian armed forces have ordered Akash systems worth Rs 24,000 crore over the years, and MoD inked a contract in Mar 2023 of over Rs 9,100 crores for improved Akash Weapon System

BDL is a government enterprise under the Ministry of Defence that was established in 1970. BDL manufactures surface-to-air missiles and delivers them to the Indian Army. BDL also offers its products for export.

Akash Weapon System

The AWS is a Short Range Surface to Air Missile (SRSAM) Air Defence System, indigenously designed and developed by Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). In order to meet aerial threats, two additional Regiments of AWS with Upgradation are being procured for Indian Army for the Northern borders. Improved AWS has Seeker Technology, Reduced Foot Print, 360° Engagement Capability and improved environmental parameters.

The project will give a boost to the Indian missile manufacturing industry in particular and the indigenous defence manufacturing ecosystem as a whole. The project has overall indigenous content of 82% which will be increased to 93% by 2026-27.

The induction of the improved AWS into the Indian Army will increase India’s self-reliance in Short Range Missile capability. This project will play a role in boosting the overall economy by avoiding outgo of precious foreign exchange to other countries, increasing employment avenues in India and encouraging Indian MSMEs through components manufacturing. Around 60% of the project cost will be awarded to the private industry, including MSMEs, in maintaining the supply chain of the weapon system, thereby creating large scale of direct and indirect employment.





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