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Hamas emerges from Gaza’s tunnels, showing it never lost control – analysis
Hamas appears to be emerging from tunnels and rubble in Gaza to show that it never lost control of most of the area despite fifteen months of war. While Hamas suffered many blows from the Israel Defense Forces, it was able to recruit new members, and it even kept trucks and vans ready to return to the streets and show its presence.
Videos purported to be from Gaza show the group in white pickup trucks driving around. The videos show large groups of armed men waving to crowds or standing and sitting on vehicles that are parading them through the streets. Hamas police, which are an arm of the terrorist group, are also re-appearing. They have been around throughout the war, but their presence has not been as clear in some areas.
Throughout the war, some NGOs and other international organization officials complained that the lack of Hamas police, or their being targeted by the IDF, was leading to a breakdown in law and order. In essence, many groups linked to the international community that work in Gaza prefer working with Hamas and its police.
Palestinian media, such as Quds, has shown images and videos from Gaza, depicting this as a Hamas victory. They portray the videos as showing “Palestinian factions,” and not just Hamas. They also show civilians celebrating alongside the gunmen.Shehab media, which is linked to Hamas, also has put out videos showing the “victory” they claim in Gaza. One shows masses of Hamas gunmen in a stylized video, clearly produced for this moment, with the men appearing to emerge from a kind of tunnel.
Another image Shehab put out shows October 7 with Hamas pulling a wounded Israeli soldier out of a tank that Hamas destroyed and contrasts it with Hamas holding aloft rifles on top of white trucks in Gaza, declaring victory.
Many other local and international media outlets and activists are showing images of Gaza. This includes Al-Jazeera and also local Gazans.
The videos may be meant for propaganda in some cases, but the overall message is clear. Hamas has emerged from tunnels in Gaza and from the rubble in some areas and is clearly in control. The group never disappeared and was never dismantled.
Back in March 2024, The Washington Post reported that “the IDF says it has ‘dismantled’ 20 of the original 24 Hamas battalions. Dismantled does not mean destroyed.” Indeed, dismantled did not mean destroyed. Hamas has re-emerged quickly. This is not a group that seems to have suffered nearly as many losses as depicted, or it has been able to replace most of the losses and maintain command and control.
History repeating itself
This is not surprising; Hamas has done the same thing after other rounds of fighting. Hamas emerged in the late 1980s, mostly in Gaza. It continued to gain support in the 1990s, opposing the Oslo peace deal. After the Second Intifada, it emerged stronger despite losing many of its leaders to Israeli airstrikes.
Hamas then took over Gaza in 2007 after winning the Palestinian elections. It then went on to re-emerge after the 2009 and 2014 war. In May 2021, a brief conflict with Israel once again showed how Hamas is often underestimated by Israel. At the time, the IDF was portrayed as having an impressive track record of striking Hamas tunnels.
One report claimed that Israel had “pulverized” Hamas’ underground “metro” of tunnels. Another report at Israel HaYom said that Israel had destroyed 100km of Hamas tunnels and eliminated 25 “top” operatives. Hamas actually emerged unscathed from this conflict.
Hamas is emerging in Gaza quickly to take control and showcase its abilities. It wants to portray this as a major victory, even if it suffered many losses. It doesn’t want any vacuum to emerge or any areas to emerge where it loses control.
As the IDF withdraws, Hamas wants to enter quickly. It doesn’t want anyone in Gaza to get the idea that Hamas is weak or to have room to critique the group. Hamas will mobilize masses to come out and cheer. Then, it will try to exploit this. Hamas will want to begin to tackle reconstruction and invite the media to try to showcase the destruction.
Each step of the way will be choreographed by Hamas’ media machine. Hamas has impressive control over every aspect of Gaza, from local media to hospitals and schools. It will galvanize all of this to help portray this as a victory for the group.
Israel’s political echelon, led by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, has ordered the IDF to prepare for an “immediate” return to fighting in Gaza, KAN News reported on Friday evening.
The Jerusalem Post reported earlier this week that Israeli officials estimated that if no agreement was reached between Israel and Hamas, Israel would return to fighting in Gaza in about a week and a half.
“Hamas is currently rejecting [US Middle East envoy Steve] Witkoff’s proposal, so it is very difficult to make progress,” one official said.
According to the Prime Minister’s Office, Witkoff’s plan involves the release of half of the living hostages and the return of half of the bodies on the first day of the continued deal. The rest of the hostages and bodies would be returned on the 42nd day, which would be the final day of the ceasefire.However, some claim that the terrorist organization has not rejected the proposal. According to a source familiar with the negotiations, “Hamas has neither accepted nor rejected the Witkoff proposal.”
Eyal Zamir to Gaza border community heads: We’re preparing to fight
On his first day as the new IDF chief of staff on Thursday, Lt.-Gen. Eyal Zamir told heads of local councils from the Gaza border communities that “we are preparing to return to fighting” in Gaza.
“We must defeat Hamas,” Zamir said. “We are also preparing to resume fighting. The hostages are our top priority.”
Amichai Stein contributed to this report.
Negotiations over the continued release of hostages held in Gaza have stalled, and “right now there is nothing happening,” sources familiar with details of the talks admitted in conversation with The Jerusalem Post on Monday.
“Right now, there’s nothing happening,” an Israeli official told the Post, adding that “Hamas is currently rejecting the Witkoff proposal, so it is very difficult to make progress.”
According to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office, the Witkoff plan involves the release of half of the living hostages and the return of half of the bodies on the first day of the deal. The second half of the hostages and bodies would be returned on the 42nd day, which would be the final day of the ceasefire.
On the other hand, some claim that Hamas has not rejected the proposal. “Hamas has neither accepted nor rejected the Witkoff proposal,” said a source with knowledge of the negotiations with the Post.“Hamas has said it is willing to negotiate and has not rejected the plan. Since Israel currently states that this is the proposal on the table, from Israel’s perspective, Hamas has rejected it.”
Trump envoy Steve Witkoff not expected to visit Israel soon, source says
An Israeli source told the Post that there is no expectation for Trump’s envoy, Steve Witkoff, to visit the region at the moment, adding, “He will only come to finalize a deal. And since there is no real progress right now, it is unclear when or if he will arrive.”
Without an agreement on the release of additional hostages in the coming days, Israeli sources say Israel is preparing to escalate its actions against Hamas. After the decision on Sunday to stop humanitarian aid, Israel is preparing to cut off water and electricity to the Gaza Strip, as well as resume fighting – some say this might happen, without a deal, as early as next week.
Israeli officials suggest that even without accepting the Witkoff initiative, Hamas might agree to release additional hostages in the near future in exchange for the release of terrorists from prison and the entry of caravans and humanitarian aid, but they add that this also depends on other issues.
“The Israeli government needs to decide what will be negotiated with Hamas and what they will receive in exchange for the release of hostages in the coming weeks,” said an Israeli source. “Hamas’s agreement to release more hostages depends on the answers to these questions.”
Israeli Defense Minister Israel Katz said on Monday that Israel responded to the mediators’ request to allow a few more days of negotiations. Katz added,d “If Hamas does not release the hostages soon, the gates of Gaza will be locked and the gates of hell will be opened – we will return to fighting, and they will face the IDF with forces and methods they have never encountered before.”
Israeli officials suggest that even without accepting the Witkoff initiative, Hamas might agree to release additional hostages in the near future in exchange for the release of terrorists from prison and the entry of caravans and humanitarian aid, but they add that this also depends on other issues. “The Israeli government needs to decide what will be negotiated with Hamas and what they will receive in exchange for the release of hostages in the coming weeks,” said an Israeli source. “Hamas’s agreement to release more hostages depends on the answers to these questions.”
No progress has been made in the ceasefire talks in Cairo, and Israel is reaching a dead end, a source familiar with the details of the negotiations told The Jerusalem Post Saturday.
There were lots of technical discussions but no results, the source added.
Israel and mediating countries believe that only the Trump administration can perhaps break the talks out of the impasse.
“When [US Middle East envoy Steve] Witkoff arrives, things may happen. Everyone is waiting for him,” the source said.Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will convene a meeting on the hostage deal in the next several hours with senior officials and the negotiation team, an Israeli official told the Post.
Hamas refusing Israeli proposal to extend phase one of deal
Hamas is refusing the idea of extending the first phase of the deal, Israeli officials said.
The Israeli and Qatari delegations arrived in Cairo on Thursday. The delegation is led by Coordinator for the Hostages and the Missing Persons, Brig.-Gen. (Res.) Gal Hirsch, as well as “M,” an anonymous officer from the Shin Bet. M is the former deputy of Shin Bet chief Ronen Bar, who is reportedly no longer part of the hostage deal negotiating team.
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