world news
Hamas’s Sinwar is gone, so who’s next in their leadership? – analysis
Yahya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas in Gaza, will be remembered as the fighter whose war ultimately cost him his life. It would be premature to suggest that Sinwar’s death means the war in Gaza is over. Both Sinwar and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had hidden agendas throughout the conflict.
Sinwar had a false vision from the outset. He thought the war he triggered on October 7 would bring about the end of Israel, defeat its army, and open the road to a liberated Jerusalem. He bit off more than he could chew and paid with his life and the lives of 42,000 Palestinians—a price he couldn’t have imagined or expected.
Netanyahu was similarly vague about his intentions. He couldn’t tell the military commanders exactly what he wanted to achieve through the war on Gaza. Commanders repeatedly tried to clarify the war’s objectives so their soldiers would know what they were supposed to achieve. Netanyahu never responded, raising questions about what sort of leader he was, taking his country into a war that the army became deeply engaged in without knowing where to go and what to achieve other than Kill Them All and Come Back Alone, as the 1968 Western action movie was titled.
Both men had reasons for extending the war because they felt their political careers and survival would end the day it ended. Sinwar thought the Israeli captives would become his wild card in pressuring Israel into meeting his demands. He erred. He never expected Netanyahu to turn his back on the captives, placing his political survival and that of his government ahead of the captives’ lives and fate.Sinwar thought the rising death toll among Palestinian civilians would force the international community to intervene, pressure Israel, and stop the war on his terms. He erred in this too. The miscalculated war brought more havoc on the Palestinians than on the Israelis. Assuming that the ratio of deaths among Palestinians and Israelis in almost every showdown was about 10 Palestinians for each Israeli, Sinwar thought that when the number of Palestinians killed in Israel’s airstrikes crossed the threshold of 12,000 civilians, the world would jump to its feet and demand an immediate ceasefire. That didn’t happen. The ratio went up to 40:1, and the numbers kept increasing.
At the same time, the war seems to be in its beginning as the Israeli army runs in circles, displacing Palestinians from one place to another, changing tactics and goals, and returning to the northern Gaza Strip to mop it up, disregarding earlier announcements that the area had been cleansed of Hamas fighters in the first weeks of the Israeli ground assault.
In his recent interview with the Haredi weekly Mishpacha, Netanyahu argued he was right in standing by his intention to continue the war. He defended his stubborn stand in the face of army generals, public opinion, and international pressure in stalling any deal with Hamas because, as he said, history will remember him as Israel’s savior.
Therefore, for him, the ends always justify the means. That was the lesson he learned from his late father, who advised him to hand over parts of Hebron to the Palestinian Authority after the Wye River Memorandum if that would allow him to safeguard the rest of the “land of Israel.” In this war, Netanyahu behaved like a drunken driver who knew nothing about traffic lights and the meaning of a red light. To his credit, he made it, but at what price, other than gaining more egoism and costing both Israelis and Palestinians dearly?
When both leaders, Netanyahu and Sinwar, become hostages to their zero-sum addiction, the end is clear. Sinwar paid with his life. Netanyahu will eventually pay with his political career. No state commission of inquiry would ever disregard Netanyahu’s behavior before, during, and after October 7. The Israeli public will wake up from its intoxication from the tactical successes in the field to the ugly reality of how bad the war was for Israel and the region. The same applies to the Palestinians, even in Gaza.
Even though Sinwar was seen as personally responsible for the agony and plight of the 2.2 million Palestinians in Gaza, words of mourning spread all over the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. In Arab culture, people believe in honoring the dead no matter how profound their differences with the deceased are. The images and videos that filled social networks of Sinwar’s last moments of life gave the man a prestige he may not have dreamed of among his people. An Israeli soldier who sent his drone into a building to check its interior spotted three armed Palestinians and suspected that Sinwar was one of them. The orders were given to the tank to hit that building. The drone returned to film and showed Sinwar, wounded and seated on an armchair, waving a wooden bar and throwing it at the drone. These images gave Sinwar a prestige none of the movement’s political leaders abroad ever had.
Who takes the steering wheel for Hamas?
What matters is not what the Palestinian public feels today about Sinwar’s death as much as the question of who will take over the steering wheel after him. Before discussing the potential successors, it is worth reminding everyone that any leader who fills Sinwar’s shoes will have the onus of proving to his constituency that he is no less harsh against the Israelis than Sinwar. Therefore, in the absence of an Israeli readiness to cut a deal that brings the Israeli captives back home, ends the war, and releases the agreed-upon list of Palestinian prisoners from Israeli jails, no Hamas leader can move forward. Incentives are needed for whoever is going to run Hamas from now on.
If the lives of the Israeli captives mean something to the government of Israel, then everything should be done, and done now, to close the captives’ dossier and move on to a different reality not only in the Gaza Strip but in the region. The region needs a reality based on a political agreement between two states for two peoples to live side by side along the 1967 lines. No matter how long this war goes on, whether in Gaza, Lebanon, or even beyond, a political settlement will always remain the way out. Why not take a shortcut and spare the Palestinians and the Israelis the pain of an ongoing and meaningless war? Honestly, I don’t see this happening soon. The wounds of the current war will take time to heal, if ever.
One dark prophecy about what may happen to the Israeli captives who are still alive is a decision by the local commanders of Hamas in Gaza to kill all the hostages if they are convinced that they don’t count in Israel’s long-term strategy. They might do it to avenge the killing of their commander or even to preemptively avenge their potential assassination by Israel since they see it coming today, tomorrow, or next year. Sinwar, too, understood that this would be the case with him, even if an interim deal were reached for him to leave Gaza and live elsewhere. He was sure that Israel’s long arm would hunt him down no matter where he hid.
The question is, who will take over from Sinwar? His brother Mohammed Sinwar seems to have the highest chance to fill his shoes. Mohammed was the one who kidnapped Gilad Shalit and kept for himself the veto power within Hamas not to sign any exchange deal with Israel if his brother, Yahya, was not on the list of the Palestinian prisoners destined to be released. One day, Mohammed explained that his mother told him she wouldn’t rest until she hugged her son, Yahya, at home. He took an oath to release him. He did it. Mohammed is a stubborn and ruthless commander and his brother’s closest aide and ally. The commander of the Khan Yunis Brigade, Mohammed is not that easy to deal with. Only a generous incentive can bring him on board. In the meantime, he is the one who will take over responsibility for the Israeli captives. Hamas has no intention to declare who the new boss is out of fear that he, too, would be assassinated by Israel.
Nevertheless, the name of Khalil al-Hayya popped up as the successor. He was the closest to Sinwar and his deputy. He belongs to the Iranian camp and is vehemently opposed to most political bureau members who are more affiliated with Turkey and Qatar. It is the fight between the Shia and Sunni camps of Islamism.
Izz al-Din Haddad, the commander of the Gaza Brigade and the one in charge of the entire northern part of the Gaza Strip, is also one of the potential successors. Even if Mohammed takes over, Haddad remains a candidate to take over once Mohammed is assassinated. They all know Israel would hunt them down just as it did with the senior command of Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Muhammad Shabana, the commander of Hamas’ Rafah Brigade, is also one of the prominent commanders in the southern part of the Gaza Strip. He was added to the list of potential commanders to control Gaza during the war. None of these commanders knows or can be confident that he will still be around when the war in Gaza ends.
Regarding Hamas’ leadership abroad, Khaled Mashaal is currently the de facto leader. Living in Doha, Mashaal believes he can take Hamas away from the war in Gaza, transforming it into a political party with a reserved seat in Middle East politics. He did it before when he took over after the assassination in 2004 of Sheikh Ahmed Yassin, the spiritual leader and founder of Hamas. In two years, Mashal took Hamas to the Palestinian Legislative Council elections, which it had boycotted in 1996. The Arab media quoted him as saying that the time has come for Hamas to become political and join the Palestine Liberation Organization, insinuating his acceptance of the two-state solution.
Mashal is submitting his credentials as Hamas’ moderate leader with whom the West can do business. Whether the West would believe his words and subsequently embrace him is too early to judge. Most of the keys to a solution are in the hands of Israelis, the overriding military power that controls the flow of events in the region. Only if Israel is convinced that the war must end can it end. Otherwise, the sky is the limit.
Elias Zananiri is a veteran journalist from east Jerusalem who has held several senior positions in the PLO as a political adviser and media consultant over the past two decades.
On Tuesday, February 11, Keren Kayemeth LeIsrael – Jewish National Fund (KKL-JNF) will dedicate the Swords of Iron Forest together with bereaved families who have lost their loved ones during the war, since October 7, 2023. This forest will serve as a living tribute to fallen civilians and IDF personnel. The dedication will take place two days before Tu Bishvat, the Jewish “New Year” for Trees.
A Forest of Memory and Renewal
“We are planting the future, renewing the forest, and breathing fresh air into the region,” says Daniel Ben-David, KKL-JNF‘s Western Negev Director. “In a place where life was cut short, we will plant new roots and create a forest of memory and renewal.”
Ben-David emphasized that the Swords of Iron Forest is not just another project; it is a testament to resilience, renewal, and the unwavering spirit of the Gaza Envelope’s residents, who have endured unimaginable hardship. This forest will symbolize hope, remembrance, and the promise of new beginnings.
>> Honor Their Memory – Plant a Tree of Remembrance
The site of the Nova Music Festival massacre, recently restored and upgraded by KKL-JNF, now welcomes 5,000 visitors daily. Given the overwhelming response, KKL-JNF expects even greater numbers to visit the new Swords of Iron Forest each year.
Last Tu Bishvat, KKL-JNF held a moving tree-planting ceremony at the Nova Festival site, where families of victims and survivors planted new life in the soil. Now, just a short distance away, the Swords of Iron Forest will take root as part of the vast 11,000-dunam Be’eri Forest, originally planted in the 1950s and 1960s. For over 12 years, and especially on October 7, this region has suffered severe destruction from ongoing rocket fire, incendiary balloons, and terror attacks from Gaza.
“For years, we have been restoring scorched land, rehabilitating wounded trees, and developing nature sites to improve the quality of life for residents,” says Ben-David. “We have built bike paths, hiking trails, and recreation areas.The Swords of Iron Forest is not just about trees – it is about resilience, remembrance, and looking ahead to the future.”
In addition to the tree-planting activities in memory of those who fell during the war, KKL-JNF is also engaged in restoration efforts in Israel’s northern forests. This week, it will hold a large and unique planting event in Biriya Forest, with the participation of hundreds of people, including local municipality leaders from the border communities, senior commanders of the IDF Northern Command, soldiers, local school students, and pre-military academy cadets.
A Living Tribute: The Tree-Planting Ceremony
Over 10,000 participants are expected to attend the unique and meaningful event on February 11, planting 2,000 trees in memory of their loved ones – creating a lasting tribute and legacy for those they have lost.
The dedication of the Swords of Iron Forest is led by KKL-JNF under the leadership of its Chairwoman, Ifat Ovadia-Luski, with the participation of Bituach Leumi and the Defense Ministry.
>> Forever Growing, Forever Remembered. Plant a Tree.
This article was written in cooperation with KKL-JNF.
After Trump took office as US President, reports were published that the new administration is demanding the deportation of the terrorist Ahlam Tamimi, who was responsible for the attack of the Sbarro restaurant, from Jordanian territory. Tamimi was released in the Gilad Shalit deal in 2011 after being sentenced to 16 life sentences.
In 2017, the US Department of Justice published a criminal complaint and issued an arrest warrant against al-Tamimi. The FBI added her to the top of its most wanted list and offered a cash reward for her extradition and prosecution.
Attorney Nitsana Darshan-Leitner, who represents the family of Channa Nachenberg, an American citizen who was critically injured in the attack at the Sbarro restaurant, is now revealing the actions taken behind the scenes, and that she was even called to an emergency meeting with the US Department of Justice’s counterterrorism task force.
The meeting was at the King David Hotel and attended by U.S. federal prosecutors and the FBI. At the meeting the American officials revealed that they were making public an indictment of Hamas terrorist Ahlam al-Tamimi who had assisted in the bombing of Sbarros.Al-Tamimi had been released from an Israeli prison during a prisoner release in exchange for Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit and was living in Jordan. Al-Tamimi hosted a popular radio talk show where she regularly boasted about her membership in Hamas and the bombing she was involved in in Jerusalem.
Although the U.S. had demanded that Jordan extradite the freed terrorist responsible for the murder of 2 U.S. citizens and the maiming of many others such as Nachenberg, the Hashemite Kingdom refused. Jordan claimed there was no extradition treaty between Amaan and Washington.
Now as a prerequisite to meeting with President Trump the U.S. has demanded that King Hussein either deport the terrorist to a third country or extradite her to the U.S.
According to attorney Darshan-Leitner: “We have been waiting since the terrorist’s release in 2011 for the Americans to really demand her extradition. We were hopeful that this unrepentant terrorist murderer who has much Israeli and American blood on her hands, will finally be locked up, but this time with no chance of freedom. It’s outrageous that she was released by Israel and was allowed to live a life of comfort and freedom in Jordan. God willing she’ll finally face a real punishment for her Jew hatred and the lives she destroyed.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Egypt’s foreign minister on Tuesday it was important to ensure Hamas terrorists can never govern Gaza again, the State Department said, with their call coming after President Donald Trump suggested Egypt and Jordan should take more Palestinians.
Trump on Saturday floated a plan to “clean out” Gaza, where Israel’s war has killed tens of thousands and caused a humanitarian crisis, in comments that echoed long-standing Palestinian fears of being permanently driven from their homes.
The suggestion by Trump was not mentioned in the US State Department statement released on Tuesday after the call between Rubio and Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty.
Jordan and Egypt had pushed back over the weekend after Trump’s comments that they should take in Palestinians from Gaza. Asked if this was a temporary or long-term solution, Trump had said: “Could be either.”“He (Rubio) also reinforced the importance of holding Hamas accountable,” the State Department said after Tuesday’s call.
“The Secretary reiterated the importance of close cooperation to advance post-conflict planning to ensure Hamas can never govern Gaza or threaten Israel again.”
Context
Rubio held a call a day earlier with Jordan’s King Abdullah, and the US statement after that call, too, did not mention Trump’s remarks on Palestinian displacement.
The latest bloodshed in the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict was triggered on Oct. 7, 2023, when Palestinian Hamas terrorists attacked Israel, killing 1,200 and taking about 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
-
Solar Energy3 years agoDLR testing the use of molten salt in a solar power plant in Portugal
-
Camera1 year agoDJI Air 3 vs. Mini 4 Pro: which compact drone is best?
-
world news1 year ago
Gulf, France aid Gaza, Russia evacuates citizens
-
Indian Defense3 years ago
Israeli Radar Company Signs MoU To Cooperate With India’s Alpha Design Technologies
-
Camera1 year agoSony a9 III: what you need to know
-
Solar Energy1 year agoGlencore eyes options on battery recycling project
-
Camera4 years agoCharles ‘Chuck’ Geschke, co-founder of Adobe and inventor of the PDF, dies at 81
-
world news1 year ago
Strong majority of Americans support Israel-Hamas hostage deal
