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Israel approaching full-scale conflict with Hezbollah as tensions rise – analysis
Right now is the closest Israel has been to a full war with Hezbollah since October 7.
This is true even in comparison to the period between July 30 and August 25, probably the second most dangerous period between the sides.
How do we know that the coming days, weeks, and months or two before the coming winter are so potentially explosive?
It is not just the statement that Defense Minister Yoav Gallant issued on Monday about his talk with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin in which he said that the possibility for a diplomatic solution with Hezbollah in the North is running out.It is not just the rumors that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu intends to replace Gallant with Gideon Saar as defense minister in order to have greater support for a major operation against Hezbollah.
It is not even just that Netanyahu’s main political opposition, Benny Gantz, continues to pound the prime minister as being too scared to risk a major battle in the North, which has left the 60,000 evacuated northern residents abandoned for nearly a year.
Confidence for major Hezbollah operation
These are the open and obvious signs – and frankly, much of Israel’s political and military class has been threatening to send Hezbollah back to the Stone Age since late early spring 2024.
It is also that the Jerusalem Post has received indications behind the scenes at both the political and military levels from sources who before were pouring cold water on the public statements, who are now signaling that the public statements are serious.
The reasons they give show how realities have changed a lot throughout the war.
For most of the war, the main reason not to get into a big fight with Hezbollah was to avoid distractions that might handicap the IDf from taking apart all 24 of Hamas’s battalions in Gaza.
As of August 21, Gallant declared Hamas’s last battalion in Rafah defeated.
Despite Netanyahu’s publicly threatening words and tone, another major reason that a big war with Hezbollah was not likely going to really happen until now was that the prime minister was privately terrified of how many Israelis might die from the expected Hezbollah onslaught of 6,000-8,000 rockets per day in the event of such a war.
That seems to have changed as of August 25.
On August 25, Hezbollah planned to launch several hundred and maybe up to 1,000 rockets on Israel, including on critical Israeli intelligence headquarters bases just North of Tel Aviv.
Netanyahu and the war cabinet instructed the IDF not to launch a full preemptive war on Hezbollah because, among other reasons, he was still worried about the impact on the Israeli home front.
However, something changed radically as a result of the events of August 25.
Since October 7, Netanyahu has doubted the IDF in areas where the objective risk was higher, even if the military supposedly would have the upper hand.
Sources have indicated that behind closed doors he was initially hesitant for each of the three invasions of Gaza; northern Gaza in late October, Khan Yunis in December, and Rafah in May.
Yet on August 25, the IDF did not just beat Hezbollah – it cleaned house.
Despite IDF’s substantive victories over Hamas and small tactical victories against Hezbollah, this was the first time that the IDF won a major and complex strategic victory over Hezbollah during this war.
It blew up the vast majority of the rockets and drones Hezbollah intended to attack Israel with before these threats could even be launched.
Hezbollah neither killed nor damaged anyone or anything of significance, while the IDF destroyed thousands of Hezbollah rockets.
Suddenly, Netanyahu has a newfound confidence that he can afford a major operation against Hezbollah with much fewer losses to the home front than he had expected.
What if – instead of 5,000 to 10,000 dead Israelis from tens of thousands of Hezbollah rockets over several weeks – he could hit Hezbollah harder than it’s ever been hit before – and destroy so many of its rocket launchers on the ground, that Israeli casualties might be not just smaller, but exponentially smaller?
Another factor was until now there was a good chance that Hamas would agree to a ceasefire and that such a deal would lead Hezbollah to unilaterally stop attacking Israel, just as it did during the November 23-30 ceasefire with Hamas.
While this is not impossible, the chances of a ceasefire with Hamas now are lower than they have been in several months after both sides have dug in on various issues after having seemed to have navigated around 90% of the obstacles.
All along, the only other option that has been discussed if diplomacy failed was a major Israeli operation.
And Hezbollah’s Hassan Nasrallah is still furious about the killing of his military chief Fuad Shukr by the IDF on July 30, so no one views him as being more flexible now than in other periods.
Finally, the winter comes into play.
Sources have told the Post that if more than 4-6 weeks pass without an operation, it may be impossible or much harder to carry out such an operation until Spring 2025.
That would mean condemning the northern residents to another 6 months outside of their homes, something becoming increasingly untenable domestically in Israel.
Pressed that the IDF managed a successful invasion of Khan Yunis and the finishing off of Hamas in Shejaia in northern Gaza in the middle of winter 2023-2024, sources responded that the winter in mountainous Lebanon is far more fierce and difficult to manage than in the deserts of Gaza.
None of this means that a new broader war with Hezbollah is certain.
It would still be a massively risky proposition for Israel, Hezbollah, and also for the sides’ sponsors: the US as well as Iran.
The US could be drawn into a regional war or at least be seen as having failed to prevent a larger war after a year of diplomacy, something that could impact the current US presidential election.
Iran could lose Hezbollah as its major potential threat to hold over Israel should the Jewish state dare to think of attacking the Islamic Republic’s nuclear facilities. Hezbollah would undoubtedly remain the main player in Lebanon but might lose many of its most feared capabilities.
But this is clearly the riskiest moment in the North since October 7.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s briefing to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Monday put him at odds with the IDF regarding how many haredi the military can absorb in a short amount of time.
Netanyahu said that while he was in favor of increasing haredi integration into the IDF, in practicality, the military needed more time to establish haredi-tailored programs and environments for this to be successful.
The prime minister’s remark comes days after top IDF officials presented a series of highly specific, customized programs for the ultra-Orthodox that are either already open or are “ready to go” as soon as the haredi respond to their military summons. This directly contradicts the prime minister’s words during the briefing.
Netanyahu spoke to the committee in a closed and classified hearing, but portions of what he said were, nevertheless, publicized, including his comments regarding haredi integration into the IDF.
When asked about the issue, Netanyahu said, “We would prefer that anyone who is not studying [in a yeshiva] share the burden [of military service.] But right now, there is a gap between what the army says it can absorb and what it can absorb, so the absorption capacity of the IDF needs to be increased.”
He added that there were intentions to create new frameworks that would allow the haredi to maintain their way of life as well as to respond to operational needs, such as establishing an ultra-Orthodox base along the border with Jordan that would be responsible for defense there.
How to fulfill the IDF’s need for more soldiers
Besides that example, Netanyahu said that the army’s need for more soldiers could be filled by extending the service of mandatory service soldiers as well as calling up a variety of reservists from among the population living in border communities who never responded to their call-ups or were given exemptions.
In contrast to Netanyahu’s statements, seeming to indicate that the IDF cannot absorb a significant increase of haredi men, the military has said repeatedly, dating back to August, that it has been ready to receive an additional 3,000 haredi per year, on top of the approximately 1,800 per year it has already been absorbing.
The announcement in August and the sending of summons to 3,000 members of the ultra-Orthodox community came after months of extensive work and the investment of significant resources to prepare both personnel and bases for a new, major influx.
One new option for service that the IDF has already added for the haredi to make their service more attractive is serving in technical and logistical capacities at hardened aircraft shelters at an air force base section where only men will serve.
Another new option is called the Yoav Track in logistics command centers, which includes fulfilling a wide variety of technical and logistic roles throughout the military, and not just in the Israel Air Force.
Also, though Netanyahu said that the IDF should look into forming a new haredi brigade, the military had already announced last week that on December 26, it would open one, distinct from Netzach Yehuda.
Netzach Yehuda had been the brigade that most of the haredi wanted to join to date. However, it has turned off many of the ultra-orthodox because it has a reputation for being more religious Zionist in nature than haredi.
Additionally, there is a recently established unit of haredi serving at the Ofer detention center, and that program is expected to grow.
Further, a Lt.-Col. with a hassidic Chabad background, who has joined the army. He will be focused on haredi affairs and making sure new inductees are comfortable and are having their needs addressed.
Despite a detailed presentation last week about all of these new service mediums as being already established for haredim, a spokesperson for Netanyahu doubled down on the claim that the IDF was still lacking in its capacity to absorb a major influx of haredi soldiers.
Tovah Lazaroff contributed to this report.
British rocker Paul Weller, Scottish band Primal Scream, and Irish rappers Kneecap will headline a ‘Gig For Gaza’ charity show at London’s O2 Academy Brixton on Dec. 13.
Weller, the former frontman for 1970s punk pioneers The Jam, is curating the show, with all proceeds going to organizations Medical Aid For Palestinians and Gaza Forever, which purportedly provide essential aid – including food, medical supplies, and emergency shelter – for Gazans who have been forced to flee their homes due to the Israel-Hamas War.
“This is an opportunity to enjoy a night of powerful music and make a tangible difference in the lives of people facing unimaginable hardship,” a press release for the show said. The concert will also feature guest speakers and short films.
Weller of Primal Scream performed with Palestinian flag
During a recent tour of the US, Weller, a longtime advocate for leftwing causes, performed with a Palestinian flag draped over his guitar amplifier. Speaking onstage from Glasgow, Scotland, last month, Weller said, “I would like to dedicate that last song to all the tens of thousands of women, children, babies, men, civilians in Palestine and Gaza. I would ask you one question. It’s really simple. There is no grey area. Are you for genocide, or are you against it? It’s a f–-king yes or no question…”
Over the summer, Primal Scream, which formed in the 1980s, gave their support for a jersey design for a Palestinian refugee football team based on their classic record ‘Screamadelica.’
In March, Kneecap withdrew from performing at the SXSW Festival in Austin, Texas, after it was revealed that the US Army was a “super sponsor” of the event as well as defense contractor RTX Corporation.
“It is done in solidarity with the people of Palestine and to highlight the unacceptable deep links the festival has to weapons companies,” the group explained of their decision via Instagram. “This will have a significant financial impact on Kneecap… but it isn’t an iota of hardship when compared with the suffering being inflicted on the people of Gaza.
None of the artists appearing nor promo material for the concert mentioned the 101 Israeli hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza, nor the October 7 massacre that killed over 1,200 Israelis and sparked the current war aimed at toppling Hamas.
David Brinn contributed to this report.
Support for a two-state solution in the Middle East among Arab Americans and Palestinians residing in the West Bank and Gaza is on the rise, according to two recent surveys.
The more recent survey from YouGov and Arab News was published on Tuesday. The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) published the other in September.
A survey of Arab Americans leading up to the US presidential elections found that half of those polled (50%) believed in seeking a two-state solution.
The poll touched upon the future of the conflict and possible resolutions to see its conclusion. Half of Arab-Americans polled believed in seeking a two-state solution with shared governance over Jerusalem. 34% believe that there should be one state where Israelis and Palestinians have equal rights, and 9% stated that they were unsure.A separate poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in September found that support for the concept of the two-state solution among Palestinians continues to rise and has the support of 39% of those polled.
According to PSR, three months prior, support for two states stood at around 32%. Figures were taken from Gaza and the West Bank, at 39% and 38%, respectively.
However, when asked about a separate Palestinian state not linked to the “two-state solution” and when state borders are identified as those of 1967, support rises to 59%, PSR found.
Half of the respondents prefer the two-state solution based on the 1967 borders, while 19% prefer a confederation between the two states of Palestine and Israel. Only 10% prefer establishing a single state with equality between Israelis and Palestinians.
When asked about solving the conflict and reaching statehood, nearly half of Palestinian respondents (48%) said they would choose “armed struggle” as a way to achieve it (50% in the West Bank, 36% in Gaza).
However, a third said they preferred negotiations to end the conflict, and 15% said they would like to see popular peaceful resistance.
International calls for two-states
Recent US administrations and other global actors have called for the end to the ongoing war and to reach a two-state solution between Israelis and Palestinians.
The Biden administration has attempted to broker a hostage and ceasefire deal as a first step. In remarks made ahead of the 79th session of the UN General Assembly in September, US President Joe Biden reiterated his support for a two-state solution.
“As we look ahead, we must also address the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank and set the conditions for a better future, including a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalized relations with all its neighbors, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own,” Biden said.
The survey conducted by Arab News and YouGov was conducted using a sample of 500 Arab Americans across the United States from September 26 to October 1, 2024. The survey data have a margin of error of +/- 5.93%.
The poll conducted by PSR comprised a sample size of 1,200 people, of whom 790 were interviewed face-to-face in the West Bank and 410 in Gaza. The margin of error stood at +/-3.5%.
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