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Israel forgot about Iran’s nuclear threat – will it pay the price?
Israel is very ready to defend against a massive Iranian conventional missile and drone strike, against a massive rocket and drone strike from Hezbollah, it has for now mostly neutered Hamas in Gaza, has terrorists on the run in the West Bank, and is ready for attacks from Syria, Yemen, or Iraq.
But sources have given the Jerusalem Post mixed signals about how ready Israel is to stop an Iranian nuclear weapons breakout.
In several high level briefings the Post has been part of where discussion of Iran’s nuclear weapons threat used to take up a significant amount of the time, the issue is often not mentioned at all or only discussed briefly as a response if the issue is pushed.
The last significant briefing on the IDF’s capabilities in this area was given before the war. For several months, the Post has sought to consult on the issue with a special Iran desk within military intelligence which was revealed to the public in mid-2023, but has been denied access.Is it because the division is so busy (almost every part of the IDF’s normally classified units have been repeatedly shown off to reporters during the current war), because the IDF does not think its work is important enough to be covered, or to avoid drawing attention to the unit being distracted by other threats?
The fact is that when your attention is diverted to seven fronts, there is no way you can focus as much on the eighth front – the nuclear front.
Also, all of those seven fronts are actually threatening right now.
The nuclear weapons threat from Iran has hovered over Israel on different levels for around 25-30 years, but there has never been a point where the Jewish state felt that the sword might come down on it within a period of months, let alone weeks or days.
Threats from every direction
There is another major distraction.
Usually, Israel’s lead in combating Iran’s nuclear threat is the Mossad.
Israeli military intelligence and the air force also play important roles, but it is a given that their attention is always divided elsewhere even during peacetime, which is why the Mossad has been the “point-person” on Iran for so long.
But Iran has not been Mossad Director’s main job now for 10 months.
He has been distracted by being the lead Israeli negotiator to recover the Israeli hostages from Hamas.
This is not a guess or a brilliant scoop.
There have been literally dozens of Barnea’s trips abroad, once hidden in veils of secrecy, which have been publicly announced.
No matter how hooked in we can be to foreign areas using modern communications, there is no way Barnea can focus as much on some hidden nuclear move in Iran when he is off globe trotting to Doha, Cairo, Paris, and elsewhere.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu – who used to be “the” harbinger of doom on Iran – almost never talks about the nuclear threat, other than with a generic line drop.
No one in Israel has publicly campaigned globally about Iran’s recent progress in installing huge numbers of advanced centrifuges at its underground Fordow facility. This change is the first time that Iran could enrich enough uranium for a nuclear weapon entirely underground without even using other nuclear sites like Natanz.
If before, Iran’s nuclear breakout would be easier to watch because many components would need to be moved around more from site to site above ground, now that is less true.
Further, the Post reported from Institute for Science and International Security President David Albright on Wednesday along with an Iran International report, that Iran is making real progress in the nuclear detention arena.
If at one point, worries about an Iranian breakout could be assuaged by saying that all of their uranium enrichment progress still left them two years away from addressing “weapons group” issues – that time may now have shrunken to less than six months and may be shrinking even more.
The IAEA is the most blind it has been in around a decade, freely publicly admitting that it may not even be able to restore what it has missed over the last few years since the Islamic Republic shut off or removed various surveillance cameras and kicked out some key inspectors.
Israel’s domestic political arena is mostly focused on being pro or anti a hostage deal and ceasefire with Hamas, with some temporary headspace for Iran’s and Hezbollah’s conventional threats, but none of the government’s critics attacking the government for its silence on the nuclear issue.
The Post has heard from some sources that Israel is always acting on this issue behind the scenes, but when so much progress has been made by Tehran, one worries if these activities are enough especially compared to the 2020-2022 period when numerous Iranian nuclear facilities publicly went up in smoke.
The US has not had any policy on Iran’s nuclear program since fall 2023 when its unofficial deal with Tehran of a partial nuclear progress freeze for partial sanctions relief fell apart.
There has been zero new public US campaigning to put the Islamic Republic’s nuclear program “back in a box” even as the US intelligence community in July made strong implied warnings of Iran’s progress with its nuclear weapons group.
And why would America spend time or energy on a nuclear Iran when it is so distracted by Russia’s war on Ukraine, competition with China, and the multi-front Middle East war.
The current presidential candidates are not talking about it at all. If they did, what would they say? Neither the Trump nor the Biden-Harris administrations succeeded in blocking Iranian nuclear progress.
The Trump administration certainly tried harder using coercive means and the Biden administration using diplomatic means, but at best each of them sometimes temporarily slowed the nuclear progress, and some of their actions may have led to that progress speeding up.
All of this means that Iran may be closer for real to a nuclear bomb than at any prior time at the exact moment that Israel is most distracted – about as dangerous a recipe as there could be.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s briefing to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Monday put him at odds with the IDF regarding how many haredi the military can absorb in a short amount of time.
Netanyahu said that while he was in favor of increasing haredi integration into the IDF, in practicality, the military needed more time to establish haredi-tailored programs and environments for this to be successful.
The prime minister’s remark comes days after top IDF officials presented a series of highly specific, customized programs for the ultra-Orthodox that are either already open or are “ready to go” as soon as the haredi respond to their military summons. This directly contradicts the prime minister’s words during the briefing.
Netanyahu spoke to the committee in a closed and classified hearing, but portions of what he said were, nevertheless, publicized, including his comments regarding haredi integration into the IDF.
When asked about the issue, Netanyahu said, “We would prefer that anyone who is not studying [in a yeshiva] share the burden [of military service.] But right now, there is a gap between what the army says it can absorb and what it can absorb, so the absorption capacity of the IDF needs to be increased.”
He added that there were intentions to create new frameworks that would allow the haredi to maintain their way of life as well as to respond to operational needs, such as establishing an ultra-Orthodox base along the border with Jordan that would be responsible for defense there.
How to fulfill the IDF’s need for more soldiers
Besides that example, Netanyahu said that the army’s need for more soldiers could be filled by extending the service of mandatory service soldiers as well as calling up a variety of reservists from among the population living in border communities who never responded to their call-ups or were given exemptions.
In contrast to Netanyahu’s statements, seeming to indicate that the IDF cannot absorb a significant increase of haredi men, the military has said repeatedly, dating back to August, that it has been ready to receive an additional 3,000 haredi per year, on top of the approximately 1,800 per year it has already been absorbing.
The announcement in August and the sending of summons to 3,000 members of the ultra-Orthodox community came after months of extensive work and the investment of significant resources to prepare both personnel and bases for a new, major influx.
One new option for service that the IDF has already added for the haredi to make their service more attractive is serving in technical and logistical capacities at hardened aircraft shelters at an air force base section where only men will serve.
Another new option is called the Yoav Track in logistics command centers, which includes fulfilling a wide variety of technical and logistic roles throughout the military, and not just in the Israel Air Force.
Also, though Netanyahu said that the IDF should look into forming a new haredi brigade, the military had already announced last week that on December 26, it would open one, distinct from Netzach Yehuda.
Netzach Yehuda had been the brigade that most of the haredi wanted to join to date. However, it has turned off many of the ultra-orthodox because it has a reputation for being more religious Zionist in nature than haredi.
Additionally, there is a recently established unit of haredi serving at the Ofer detention center, and that program is expected to grow.
Further, a Lt.-Col. with a hassidic Chabad background, who has joined the army. He will be focused on haredi affairs and making sure new inductees are comfortable and are having their needs addressed.
Despite a detailed presentation last week about all of these new service mediums as being already established for haredim, a spokesperson for Netanyahu doubled down on the claim that the IDF was still lacking in its capacity to absorb a major influx of haredi soldiers.
Tovah Lazaroff contributed to this report.
British rocker Paul Weller, Scottish band Primal Scream, and Irish rappers Kneecap will headline a ‘Gig For Gaza’ charity show at London’s O2 Academy Brixton on Dec. 13.
Weller, the former frontman for 1970s punk pioneers The Jam, is curating the show, with all proceeds going to organizations Medical Aid For Palestinians and Gaza Forever, which purportedly provide essential aid – including food, medical supplies, and emergency shelter – for Gazans who have been forced to flee their homes due to the Israel-Hamas War.
“This is an opportunity to enjoy a night of powerful music and make a tangible difference in the lives of people facing unimaginable hardship,” a press release for the show said. The concert will also feature guest speakers and short films.
Weller of Primal Scream performed with Palestinian flag
During a recent tour of the US, Weller, a longtime advocate for leftwing causes, performed with a Palestinian flag draped over his guitar amplifier. Speaking onstage from Glasgow, Scotland, last month, Weller said, “I would like to dedicate that last song to all the tens of thousands of women, children, babies, men, civilians in Palestine and Gaza. I would ask you one question. It’s really simple. There is no grey area. Are you for genocide, or are you against it? It’s a f–-king yes or no question…”
Over the summer, Primal Scream, which formed in the 1980s, gave their support for a jersey design for a Palestinian refugee football team based on their classic record ‘Screamadelica.’
In March, Kneecap withdrew from performing at the SXSW Festival in Austin, Texas, after it was revealed that the US Army was a “super sponsor” of the event as well as defense contractor RTX Corporation.
“It is done in solidarity with the people of Palestine and to highlight the unacceptable deep links the festival has to weapons companies,” the group explained of their decision via Instagram. “This will have a significant financial impact on Kneecap… but it isn’t an iota of hardship when compared with the suffering being inflicted on the people of Gaza.
None of the artists appearing nor promo material for the concert mentioned the 101 Israeli hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza, nor the October 7 massacre that killed over 1,200 Israelis and sparked the current war aimed at toppling Hamas.
David Brinn contributed to this report.
Support for a two-state solution in the Middle East among Arab Americans and Palestinians residing in the West Bank and Gaza is on the rise, according to two recent surveys.
The more recent survey from YouGov and Arab News was published on Tuesday. The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) published the other in September.
A survey of Arab Americans leading up to the US presidential elections found that half of those polled (50%) believed in seeking a two-state solution.
The poll touched upon the future of the conflict and possible resolutions to see its conclusion. Half of Arab-Americans polled believed in seeking a two-state solution with shared governance over Jerusalem. 34% believe that there should be one state where Israelis and Palestinians have equal rights, and 9% stated that they were unsure.A separate poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in September found that support for the concept of the two-state solution among Palestinians continues to rise and has the support of 39% of those polled.
According to PSR, three months prior, support for two states stood at around 32%. Figures were taken from Gaza and the West Bank, at 39% and 38%, respectively.
However, when asked about a separate Palestinian state not linked to the “two-state solution” and when state borders are identified as those of 1967, support rises to 59%, PSR found.
Half of the respondents prefer the two-state solution based on the 1967 borders, while 19% prefer a confederation between the two states of Palestine and Israel. Only 10% prefer establishing a single state with equality between Israelis and Palestinians.
When asked about solving the conflict and reaching statehood, nearly half of Palestinian respondents (48%) said they would choose “armed struggle” as a way to achieve it (50% in the West Bank, 36% in Gaza).
However, a third said they preferred negotiations to end the conflict, and 15% said they would like to see popular peaceful resistance.
International calls for two-states
Recent US administrations and other global actors have called for the end to the ongoing war and to reach a two-state solution between Israelis and Palestinians.
The Biden administration has attempted to broker a hostage and ceasefire deal as a first step. In remarks made ahead of the 79th session of the UN General Assembly in September, US President Joe Biden reiterated his support for a two-state solution.
“As we look ahead, we must also address the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank and set the conditions for a better future, including a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalized relations with all its neighbors, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own,” Biden said.
The survey conducted by Arab News and YouGov was conducted using a sample of 500 Arab Americans across the United States from September 26 to October 1, 2024. The survey data have a margin of error of +/- 5.93%.
The poll conducted by PSR comprised a sample size of 1,200 people, of whom 790 were interviewed face-to-face in the West Bank and 410 in Gaza. The margin of error stood at +/-3.5%.
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