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Lebanon’s presidential election: Testing Hezbollah’s influence after losing to Israel – analysis
By decimating Hezbollah, weakening Iran, and indirectly contributing to Bashar Assad’s ouster in Syria, Israel has gifted Lebanon with an opportunity to reclaim its sovereignty. Whether Lebanon can seize this moment will be tested on Thursday when its Parliament convenes for the 13th time in over two years to attempt to elect a new president.
The election, called for by Lebanese Parliament Speaker Nabih Berri of Amal, a faction allied with Hezbollah, immediately after the ceasefire with Israel went into effect on November 27, comes at a critical juncture and indicates a desire to put an end to the logjam that has prevented the country from voting in a president.
A newly elected president could play a key role in ensuring the continued implementation of the ceasefire, which calls for Hezbollah to cease operations against Israel and to move north of the Litani River, for Israel to withdraw from Lebanese territory, and for the Lebanese Army – along with the United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL) – to take control of southern Lebanon where Hezbollah long held sway. The 60-day ceasefire is set to end on January 26.
A new president committed to implementing these terms could steer Lebanon toward stability and reinforce the fragile truce.Lebanon has been without a president since October 2022, with Parliament – roughly divided into pro- and anti-Hezbollah camps – unable to reach an agreement the previous 12 times because of a lack of consensus and an inability to compromise.
As a result, the country – already grappling with severe economic and political crises even before Hezbollah began firing missiles, rockets, and drones at Israel in October 2023 – is now governed by an interim administration.
Without a president, Lebanon cannot appoint a new prime minister, leaving it governed by a caretaker government and paralyzed at a moment when international support, including massive financial support, hinges on functional governance. This financial support, including a massive agreement with the International Monetary Fund, is more crucial now than even before the war since the reconstruction costs in Lebanon – in Beirut as well as in southern Lebanon – are staggering.
In a sign of the changing strategic landscape, a Saudi delegation was in Beirut this week to discuss the elections with Lebanese officials, something not seen in the past when Iran was the outside force with the most sway.
Previous election attempt
The last time Lebanon’s Parliament tried to elect a president was in June 2023, with Hezbollah’s candidate being Suleiman Franjieh, a former lawmaker and ally of Assad. He is not believed to be in the running this time.
Instead, the leading candidate is Joseph Aoun, the commander of the Lebanese Army, who is being supported by the US and whose candidacy is bolstered by his image as a unifying, patriotic figure. His election could signal stronger state control over national security.
On a recent visit to Saudi Arabia, which is also believed to be backing his candidacy, Aoun said he did not intend to confront Hezbollah. Hezbollah has indicated it would not use the veto power it has in Parliament to prevent his election.
Other top challengers are International Monetary Fund Middle East Director Jihad Azour, a former finance minister, and Samir Geagea, the leader of the Lebanese Christian Forces Party, but both are opposed by Hezbollah, which, while severely weakened, still has considerable parliamentary power.
The Lebanese presidency holds both symbolic and constitutional importance. According to the Taif Agreement of 1989, the president is the head of state and supreme commander of the armed forces. Executive power, however, is in the hands of government ministers.
Nevertheless, the president, if he chooses, could play a key role in shaping military and foreign policy, including efforts to disarm Hezbollah. According to Lebanon’s constitutional framework, the president must be a Maronite Christian, the prime minister a Sunni Muslim, and the speaker of the Parliament a Shia Muslim.
The 128-seat Parliament selects the president, and a two-thirds majority of 86 members must be present for the election to take place. In the first round, a candidate must secure 86 votes to win. In subsequent rounds, a minimum of 65 votes is necessary. No single political alliance holds enough seats to impose its choice, and because of Hezbollah’s strength in the Parliament, no candidate will be elected without its agreement.
For Israel, the outcome of Lebanon’s presidential election carries significant implications.
A president aligned with reformist forces could bolster the Lebanese Army’s presence in the south, limiting Hezbollah’s operational freedom and reinforcing the ceasefire.
Hezbollah may go along with such a candidate, knowing that the reconstruction of Lebanon will only happen with massive aid from abroad, and this will only come about with the type of political stability that a president can help provide. Hezbollah’s sponsor, Iran, is in no position to pour the kind of money into Lebanon that will now be needed for reconstruction.
On the other hand, continued political paralysis or the election of a Hezbollah-backed figure could heighten tensions and risk renewed conflict.
Lebanon is at a crossroads. This election offers a chance for the country to reclaim sovereignty, strengthen state institutions, and ensure significant foreign aid. Whether it takes that path or remains mired in political paralysis and division will shape not only its future but also the fate of the fragile truce on the northern border.
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Egypt’s foreign minister on Tuesday it was important to ensure Hamas terrorists can never govern Gaza again, the State Department said, with their call coming after President Donald Trump suggested Egypt and Jordan should take more Palestinians.
Trump on Saturday floated a plan to “clean out” Gaza, where Israel’s war has killed tens of thousands and caused a humanitarian crisis, in comments that echoed long-standing Palestinian fears of being permanently driven from their homes.
The suggestion by Trump was not mentioned in the US State Department statement released on Tuesday after the call between Rubio and Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty.
Jordan and Egypt had pushed back over the weekend after Trump’s comments that they should take in Palestinians from Gaza. Asked if this was a temporary or long-term solution, Trump had said: “Could be either.”“He (Rubio) also reinforced the importance of holding Hamas accountable,” the State Department said after Tuesday’s call.
“The Secretary reiterated the importance of close cooperation to advance post-conflict planning to ensure Hamas can never govern Gaza or threaten Israel again.”
Context
Rubio held a call a day earlier with Jordan’s King Abdullah, and the US statement after that call, too, did not mention Trump’s remarks on Palestinian displacement.
The latest bloodshed in the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict was triggered on Oct. 7, 2023, when Palestinian Hamas terrorists attacked Israel, killing 1,200 and taking about 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
An Israeli aircraft attacked in the Tulkarm area as part of an IDF and Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) joint operation, the military announced on Monday.
Later reports in Israeli media clarified that the airstrike occurred in the Nur a-Shams refugee camp.
Footage from the scene indicates that a car was destroyed, leading to an explosive fire with a pillar of smoke rising into the sky.
Two Palestinians were in the vehicle at the time of the airstrike, according to Palestinians quoted in Israeli media.The Palestinian Health Ministry reported that one of the passengers was killed and the other was moderately injured, according to Israeli media reports.
Wider context
This comes amid the IDF’s Operation Iron Wall, aiming to remove Palestinian terrorists from Jenin and the wider area.
The IDF began a wide-ranging operation on Palestinian terror in Jenin last Tuesday, killing several terrorists in the mission meant to last a minimum of several days and potentially much longer.
The campaign, dubbed “Operation Iron Wall,” includes drones and helicopter air support. There were also reportedly tanks in the vicinity – although not entering Jenin – and the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency), Duvdevan, Egoz, other special forces, and engineering forces from Battalion 90 were all involved.
The Committee to Project Journalists (CPJ) stated that China, Israel, and Myanmar are the “world’s three worst offenders” for imprisoning journalists in 2024, according to a report published by the organization on Thursday.
The report stated that while other egregious offenders, such as China, Myanmar, Belarus, and Russia, “routinely rank among the top jailers of journalists,” Israel rarely appeared in CPJ censuses before the October 7 massacre.
According to the report, Israel rose to second place as it “tried to silence coverage from the occupied Palestinian territories,” adding that “all detained by Israel on the day of CPJ’s census are Palestinian.” The CPJ report claims that 43 Palestinian journalists were held in Israeli custody as of December 1, 2024.
The report did not take into account that Israel has regularly discovered journalists either embedded with Hamas or Palestinian Islamic Jihad terrorists, linked alleged journalists directly as members of terror groups, or killed terrorists whose journalistic ties are later revealed.However, the report did not focus exclusively on Israel but rather on the general increase of authoritarian arrests of journalists across the world, criticizing the authorities in China, Myanmar, Russia, and Belarus, respectively, to an equal extent.
“At least 10 journalists” are held in administrative detention centers where prisoners are subjected to “inhuman conditions,” the report added.
Lawyers who visited some of the detainees told CPJ that Israeli authorities informed the journalists that they were arrested because they had contacted individuals whom Israel wanted information about.
Such arrests are “symptomatic of Israel’s broader effort to prevent coverage of its actions in Gaza,” according to the report. CPJ also reported that Israel banned foreign correspondents from entering Gaza and banned Al Jazeera.
Other CPJ reports discussing Israel
CPJ Program Director Carlos Martinez de la Serna was quoted in a report titled Attacks, arrests, threats, censorship: The high risks of reporting the Israel-Gaza war that “Journalists have been paying the highest price – their lives – for their reporting” since the start of the Israel-Hamas war.
CPJ stated in the report that IDF spokespeople repeatedly tell media outlets that IDF policy does not deliberately target journalists and added that IDF reportedly told news agencies that they cannot guarantee the safety of journalists.
A separate January 17 report by CPJ stated that the journalists’ attorneys claimed their arrests by Israel were in retaliation for their journalism and commentary.
The January 17 report notes that 30 journalists, including three held by the Palestinian Authority, have been released since their arrests over the last 15 months.
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