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Why IDF hitting terrorists in schools made sense before, but not anymore – analysis
If you look objectively and without emotions at the black-and-white letter law of the laws of war, there is no question that there are some circumstances where a military can attack a school or a religious place of worship if enemy forces are using it for military purposes.
This has been Israel’s mantra in explaining to the world why it has the right to target dozens if not some hundreds, of schools and other civilian locations in Gaza: Hamas is using them so Jerusalem can target them.
Of course, there are questions of proportionality, such as that one cannot blow up a school that has one low-grade terrorist while killing 20 civilians.
But the basic principle that the IDF – at least as a matter of law – can kill terrorists in such locations if the proportional balance of terrorists to civilians is reasonable remains unimpeachable.However, the law is only the first prong of analyzing such a military action.
Even if something is legal, the maybe more important question is: is it smart, does it make sense, do the broader benefits outweigh the costs?
If the answer to that question in the war’s early months, and maybe even at least until defeating Hamas in Khan Yunis by early February was an emphatic yes, at some point it probably shifted to a ‘no’, and by May, it probably shifted to an emphatic ‘no.’
Until February, the IDF needed to erase October 7 from Hamas’s and its other enemies’ worldview as a paradigm for a helpless and weak Israel.
The IDF needed to make it clear to Hamas and other enemies that Hamas was defeated as a national military organization, that it could take control of any area of Gaza at will, and that any enemy who made a similar mistake to Hamas going too far could face the same scenes of military defeat and destruction.
In order to do that, the IDF had to defeat Hamas’s two most powerful arms, its northern Gaza battalions and its Khan Yunis battalions.
Also, defeating Hamas in northern Gaza led to a return of over 100 hostages, and there was a real chance that defeating Hamas in Khan Yunis might lead to another hostage deal.
In order to do that, the IDF could not allow Hamas to conceal itself among human shields or civilian locations.
Anywhere in northern Gaza and Khan Yunis where Hamas hid, the IDF needed to attack it, as long as proportionality was followed, even if it meant ancillary civilian casualties sometimes.
The only path forward to defeat Hamas
This was the only way to defeat and take apart Hamas’s battalions.
Also, certainly until December, and to some extent until mid/late March, Israel had strong and consistent US backing and did not yet face significant intervention from international courts.
March saw Israel make a number of errors, such as mistakenly killing seven aid workers from the World Central Kitchen organization.
There is an ongoing debate among top defense officials about how necessary or not it was for the IDF to invade Rafah, though most are happy that the IDF took over the Philadelphi Corridor.
In any case, as soon as Israel invaded Rafah, the Biden administration froze some weapons sales publicly, the International Criminal Court Prosecutor requested arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and a variety of Israeli allies started discussions about sanctions or at least weapons sales freezes.
Why did everything shift so much? It could be Hamas’s Health Ministry reporting 30,000, then 35,000, then 40,000 Palestinian civilians dead and over 90,000 wounded.
Israel can absolutely reduce those numbers by noting that 16,000 or more were probably Hamas and maybe that the number of dead is 5,000-10,000 less, given at least one UN organization admitting in May that they had collected 10,000 bodies less than the death count, so far.
But in the best-case scenario, that means Israel probably still killed 15,000 civilians, and the number could easily be closer to 25,000.
At those numbers, Israel has essentially no allies who will continue to support strikes that kill a mix of terrorists and civilians. Each such strike makes more arms embargoes, war crimes charges, and broader sanctions more likely.
Moreover, it has become abundantly clear that invading Rafah did not break Hamas much more than invading northern Gaza-Khan Yunis. Each time Hamas is attacked, they do lose some forces, but they have a significant number of forces that are just hiding and waiting patiently until Israel’s attention from “mowing the grass” in Gaza fades.
So attacking one more school and killing 20 more terrorists is not really going to make a large difference in the broader goal of getting the hostages back or bringing an end to Hamas’s political identity.
And while the IDF legal division finally started to make some headlines after 10 months, there is still almost no information about its 300 operational probes, nor is there much more about its 135 accelerated criminal and operational probes. Aside from a few indictments from Sdei Teiman, Israel has presented little to the world to assuage its doubts about Israeli justice, even regarding high-profile cases like the mistaken killing of Reuters journalists in Lebanon back in October 2023.
The bottom line is that by May, if not by February, the costs to Israel’s legitimacy of killing mixes of terrorists and civilians – even if legally permissible – have likely shifted to become not worthwhile given the negligible impact that each individual incident has on achieving the war’s broader goals.
The sooner the IDF shifts strategies, the sooner it can start the process of restoring Israeli legitimacy and cutting off the threat of arms embargoes, global war crimes prosecutions, and sanctions.
On Tuesday, February 11, Keren Kayemeth LeIsrael – Jewish National Fund (KKL-JNF) will dedicate the Swords of Iron Forest together with bereaved families who have lost their loved ones during the war, since October 7, 2023. This forest will serve as a living tribute to fallen civilians and IDF personnel. The dedication will take place two days before Tu Bishvat, the Jewish “New Year” for Trees.
A Forest of Memory and Renewal
“We are planting the future, renewing the forest, and breathing fresh air into the region,” says Daniel Ben-David, KKL-JNF‘s Western Negev Director. “In a place where life was cut short, we will plant new roots and create a forest of memory and renewal.”
Ben-David emphasized that the Swords of Iron Forest is not just another project; it is a testament to resilience, renewal, and the unwavering spirit of the Gaza Envelope’s residents, who have endured unimaginable hardship. This forest will symbolize hope, remembrance, and the promise of new beginnings.
>> Honor Their Memory – Plant a Tree of Remembrance
The site of the Nova Music Festival massacre, recently restored and upgraded by KKL-JNF, now welcomes 5,000 visitors daily. Given the overwhelming response, KKL-JNF expects even greater numbers to visit the new Swords of Iron Forest each year.
Last Tu Bishvat, KKL-JNF held a moving tree-planting ceremony at the Nova Festival site, where families of victims and survivors planted new life in the soil. Now, just a short distance away, the Swords of Iron Forest will take root as part of the vast 11,000-dunam Be’eri Forest, originally planted in the 1950s and 1960s. For over 12 years, and especially on October 7, this region has suffered severe destruction from ongoing rocket fire, incendiary balloons, and terror attacks from Gaza.
“For years, we have been restoring scorched land, rehabilitating wounded trees, and developing nature sites to improve the quality of life for residents,” says Ben-David. “We have built bike paths, hiking trails, and recreation areas.The Swords of Iron Forest is not just about trees – it is about resilience, remembrance, and looking ahead to the future.”
In addition to the tree-planting activities in memory of those who fell during the war, KKL-JNF is also engaged in restoration efforts in Israel’s northern forests. This week, it will hold a large and unique planting event in Biriya Forest, with the participation of hundreds of people, including local municipality leaders from the border communities, senior commanders of the IDF Northern Command, soldiers, local school students, and pre-military academy cadets.
A Living Tribute: The Tree-Planting Ceremony
Over 10,000 participants are expected to attend the unique and meaningful event on February 11, planting 2,000 trees in memory of their loved ones – creating a lasting tribute and legacy for those they have lost.
The dedication of the Swords of Iron Forest is led by KKL-JNF under the leadership of its Chairwoman, Ifat Ovadia-Luski, with the participation of Bituach Leumi and the Defense Ministry.
>> Forever Growing, Forever Remembered. Plant a Tree.
This article was written in cooperation with KKL-JNF.
After Trump took office as US President, reports were published that the new administration is demanding the deportation of the terrorist Ahlam Tamimi, who was responsible for the attack of the Sbarro restaurant, from Jordanian territory. Tamimi was released in the Gilad Shalit deal in 2011 after being sentenced to 16 life sentences.
In 2017, the US Department of Justice published a criminal complaint and issued an arrest warrant against al-Tamimi. The FBI added her to the top of its most wanted list and offered a cash reward for her extradition and prosecution.
Attorney Nitsana Darshan-Leitner, who represents the family of Channa Nachenberg, an American citizen who was critically injured in the attack at the Sbarro restaurant, is now revealing the actions taken behind the scenes, and that she was even called to an emergency meeting with the US Department of Justice’s counterterrorism task force.
The meeting was at the King David Hotel and attended by U.S. federal prosecutors and the FBI. At the meeting the American officials revealed that they were making public an indictment of Hamas terrorist Ahlam al-Tamimi who had assisted in the bombing of Sbarros.Al-Tamimi had been released from an Israeli prison during a prisoner release in exchange for Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit and was living in Jordan. Al-Tamimi hosted a popular radio talk show where she regularly boasted about her membership in Hamas and the bombing she was involved in in Jerusalem.
Although the U.S. had demanded that Jordan extradite the freed terrorist responsible for the murder of 2 U.S. citizens and the maiming of many others such as Nachenberg, the Hashemite Kingdom refused. Jordan claimed there was no extradition treaty between Amaan and Washington.
Now as a prerequisite to meeting with President Trump the U.S. has demanded that King Hussein either deport the terrorist to a third country or extradite her to the U.S.
According to attorney Darshan-Leitner: “We have been waiting since the terrorist’s release in 2011 for the Americans to really demand her extradition. We were hopeful that this unrepentant terrorist murderer who has much Israeli and American blood on her hands, will finally be locked up, but this time with no chance of freedom. It’s outrageous that she was released by Israel and was allowed to live a life of comfort and freedom in Jordan. God willing she’ll finally face a real punishment for her Jew hatred and the lives she destroyed.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Egypt’s foreign minister on Tuesday it was important to ensure Hamas terrorists can never govern Gaza again, the State Department said, with their call coming after President Donald Trump suggested Egypt and Jordan should take more Palestinians.
Trump on Saturday floated a plan to “clean out” Gaza, where Israel’s war has killed tens of thousands and caused a humanitarian crisis, in comments that echoed long-standing Palestinian fears of being permanently driven from their homes.
The suggestion by Trump was not mentioned in the US State Department statement released on Tuesday after the call between Rubio and Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty.
Jordan and Egypt had pushed back over the weekend after Trump’s comments that they should take in Palestinians from Gaza. Asked if this was a temporary or long-term solution, Trump had said: “Could be either.”“He (Rubio) also reinforced the importance of holding Hamas accountable,” the State Department said after Tuesday’s call.
“The Secretary reiterated the importance of close cooperation to advance post-conflict planning to ensure Hamas can never govern Gaza or threaten Israel again.”
Context
Rubio held a call a day earlier with Jordan’s King Abdullah, and the US statement after that call, too, did not mention Trump’s remarks on Palestinian displacement.
The latest bloodshed in the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict was triggered on Oct. 7, 2023, when Palestinian Hamas terrorists attacked Israel, killing 1,200 and taking about 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
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