world news
Why IDF hitting terrorists in schools made sense before, but not anymore – analysis
If you look objectively and without emotions at the black-and-white letter law of the laws of war, there is no question that there are some circumstances where a military can attack a school or a religious place of worship if enemy forces are using it for military purposes.
This has been Israel’s mantra in explaining to the world why it has the right to target dozens if not some hundreds, of schools and other civilian locations in Gaza: Hamas is using them so Jerusalem can target them.
Of course, there are questions of proportionality, such as that one cannot blow up a school that has one low-grade terrorist while killing 20 civilians.
But the basic principle that the IDF – at least as a matter of law – can kill terrorists in such locations if the proportional balance of terrorists to civilians is reasonable remains unimpeachable.However, the law is only the first prong of analyzing such a military action.
Even if something is legal, the maybe more important question is: is it smart, does it make sense, do the broader benefits outweigh the costs?
If the answer to that question in the war’s early months, and maybe even at least until defeating Hamas in Khan Yunis by early February was an emphatic yes, at some point it probably shifted to a ‘no’, and by May, it probably shifted to an emphatic ‘no.’
Until February, the IDF needed to erase October 7 from Hamas’s and its other enemies’ worldview as a paradigm for a helpless and weak Israel.
The IDF needed to make it clear to Hamas and other enemies that Hamas was defeated as a national military organization, that it could take control of any area of Gaza at will, and that any enemy who made a similar mistake to Hamas going too far could face the same scenes of military defeat and destruction.
In order to do that, the IDF had to defeat Hamas’s two most powerful arms, its northern Gaza battalions and its Khan Yunis battalions.
Also, defeating Hamas in northern Gaza led to a return of over 100 hostages, and there was a real chance that defeating Hamas in Khan Yunis might lead to another hostage deal.
In order to do that, the IDF could not allow Hamas to conceal itself among human shields or civilian locations.
Anywhere in northern Gaza and Khan Yunis where Hamas hid, the IDF needed to attack it, as long as proportionality was followed, even if it meant ancillary civilian casualties sometimes.
The only path forward to defeat Hamas
This was the only way to defeat and take apart Hamas’s battalions.
Also, certainly until December, and to some extent until mid/late March, Israel had strong and consistent US backing and did not yet face significant intervention from international courts.
March saw Israel make a number of errors, such as mistakenly killing seven aid workers from the World Central Kitchen organization.
There is an ongoing debate among top defense officials about how necessary or not it was for the IDF to invade Rafah, though most are happy that the IDF took over the Philadelphi Corridor.
In any case, as soon as Israel invaded Rafah, the Biden administration froze some weapons sales publicly, the International Criminal Court Prosecutor requested arrest warrants for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, and a variety of Israeli allies started discussions about sanctions or at least weapons sales freezes.
Why did everything shift so much? It could be Hamas’s Health Ministry reporting 30,000, then 35,000, then 40,000 Palestinian civilians dead and over 90,000 wounded.
Israel can absolutely reduce those numbers by noting that 16,000 or more were probably Hamas and maybe that the number of dead is 5,000-10,000 less, given at least one UN organization admitting in May that they had collected 10,000 bodies less than the death count, so far.
But in the best-case scenario, that means Israel probably still killed 15,000 civilians, and the number could easily be closer to 25,000.
At those numbers, Israel has essentially no allies who will continue to support strikes that kill a mix of terrorists and civilians. Each such strike makes more arms embargoes, war crimes charges, and broader sanctions more likely.
Moreover, it has become abundantly clear that invading Rafah did not break Hamas much more than invading northern Gaza-Khan Yunis. Each time Hamas is attacked, they do lose some forces, but they have a significant number of forces that are just hiding and waiting patiently until Israel’s attention from “mowing the grass” in Gaza fades.
So attacking one more school and killing 20 more terrorists is not really going to make a large difference in the broader goal of getting the hostages back or bringing an end to Hamas’s political identity.
And while the IDF legal division finally started to make some headlines after 10 months, there is still almost no information about its 300 operational probes, nor is there much more about its 135 accelerated criminal and operational probes. Aside from a few indictments from Sdei Teiman, Israel has presented little to the world to assuage its doubts about Israeli justice, even regarding high-profile cases like the mistaken killing of Reuters journalists in Lebanon back in October 2023.
The bottom line is that by May, if not by February, the costs to Israel’s legitimacy of killing mixes of terrorists and civilians – even if legally permissible – have likely shifted to become not worthwhile given the negligible impact that each individual incident has on achieving the war’s broader goals.
The sooner the IDF shifts strategies, the sooner it can start the process of restoring Israeli legitimacy and cutting off the threat of arms embargoes, global war crimes prosecutions, and sanctions.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s briefing to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Monday put him at odds with the IDF regarding how many haredi the military can absorb in a short amount of time.
Netanyahu said that while he was in favor of increasing haredi integration into the IDF, in practicality, the military needed more time to establish haredi-tailored programs and environments for this to be successful.
The prime minister’s remark comes days after top IDF officials presented a series of highly specific, customized programs for the ultra-Orthodox that are either already open or are “ready to go” as soon as the haredi respond to their military summons. This directly contradicts the prime minister’s words during the briefing.
Netanyahu spoke to the committee in a closed and classified hearing, but portions of what he said were, nevertheless, publicized, including his comments regarding haredi integration into the IDF.
When asked about the issue, Netanyahu said, “We would prefer that anyone who is not studying [in a yeshiva] share the burden [of military service.] But right now, there is a gap between what the army says it can absorb and what it can absorb, so the absorption capacity of the IDF needs to be increased.”
He added that there were intentions to create new frameworks that would allow the haredi to maintain their way of life as well as to respond to operational needs, such as establishing an ultra-Orthodox base along the border with Jordan that would be responsible for defense there.
How to fulfill the IDF’s need for more soldiers
Besides that example, Netanyahu said that the army’s need for more soldiers could be filled by extending the service of mandatory service soldiers as well as calling up a variety of reservists from among the population living in border communities who never responded to their call-ups or were given exemptions.
In contrast to Netanyahu’s statements, seeming to indicate that the IDF cannot absorb a significant increase of haredi men, the military has said repeatedly, dating back to August, that it has been ready to receive an additional 3,000 haredi per year, on top of the approximately 1,800 per year it has already been absorbing.
The announcement in August and the sending of summons to 3,000 members of the ultra-Orthodox community came after months of extensive work and the investment of significant resources to prepare both personnel and bases for a new, major influx.
One new option for service that the IDF has already added for the haredi to make their service more attractive is serving in technical and logistical capacities at hardened aircraft shelters at an air force base section where only men will serve.
Another new option is called the Yoav Track in logistics command centers, which includes fulfilling a wide variety of technical and logistic roles throughout the military, and not just in the Israel Air Force.
Also, though Netanyahu said that the IDF should look into forming a new haredi brigade, the military had already announced last week that on December 26, it would open one, distinct from Netzach Yehuda.
Netzach Yehuda had been the brigade that most of the haredi wanted to join to date. However, it has turned off many of the ultra-orthodox because it has a reputation for being more religious Zionist in nature than haredi.
Additionally, there is a recently established unit of haredi serving at the Ofer detention center, and that program is expected to grow.
Further, a Lt.-Col. with a hassidic Chabad background, who has joined the army. He will be focused on haredi affairs and making sure new inductees are comfortable and are having their needs addressed.
Despite a detailed presentation last week about all of these new service mediums as being already established for haredim, a spokesperson for Netanyahu doubled down on the claim that the IDF was still lacking in its capacity to absorb a major influx of haredi soldiers.
Tovah Lazaroff contributed to this report.
British rocker Paul Weller, Scottish band Primal Scream, and Irish rappers Kneecap will headline a ‘Gig For Gaza’ charity show at London’s O2 Academy Brixton on Dec. 13.
Weller, the former frontman for 1970s punk pioneers The Jam, is curating the show, with all proceeds going to organizations Medical Aid For Palestinians and Gaza Forever, which purportedly provide essential aid – including food, medical supplies, and emergency shelter – for Gazans who have been forced to flee their homes due to the Israel-Hamas War.
“This is an opportunity to enjoy a night of powerful music and make a tangible difference in the lives of people facing unimaginable hardship,” a press release for the show said. The concert will also feature guest speakers and short films.
Weller of Primal Scream performed with Palestinian flag
During a recent tour of the US, Weller, a longtime advocate for leftwing causes, performed with a Palestinian flag draped over his guitar amplifier. Speaking onstage from Glasgow, Scotland, last month, Weller said, “I would like to dedicate that last song to all the tens of thousands of women, children, babies, men, civilians in Palestine and Gaza. I would ask you one question. It’s really simple. There is no grey area. Are you for genocide, or are you against it? It’s a f–-king yes or no question…”
Over the summer, Primal Scream, which formed in the 1980s, gave their support for a jersey design for a Palestinian refugee football team based on their classic record ‘Screamadelica.’
In March, Kneecap withdrew from performing at the SXSW Festival in Austin, Texas, after it was revealed that the US Army was a “super sponsor” of the event as well as defense contractor RTX Corporation.
“It is done in solidarity with the people of Palestine and to highlight the unacceptable deep links the festival has to weapons companies,” the group explained of their decision via Instagram. “This will have a significant financial impact on Kneecap… but it isn’t an iota of hardship when compared with the suffering being inflicted on the people of Gaza.
None of the artists appearing nor promo material for the concert mentioned the 101 Israeli hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza, nor the October 7 massacre that killed over 1,200 Israelis and sparked the current war aimed at toppling Hamas.
David Brinn contributed to this report.
Support for a two-state solution in the Middle East among Arab Americans and Palestinians residing in the West Bank and Gaza is on the rise, according to two recent surveys.
The more recent survey from YouGov and Arab News was published on Tuesday. The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) published the other in September.
A survey of Arab Americans leading up to the US presidential elections found that half of those polled (50%) believed in seeking a two-state solution.
The poll touched upon the future of the conflict and possible resolutions to see its conclusion. Half of Arab-Americans polled believed in seeking a two-state solution with shared governance over Jerusalem. 34% believe that there should be one state where Israelis and Palestinians have equal rights, and 9% stated that they were unsure.A separate poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in September found that support for the concept of the two-state solution among Palestinians continues to rise and has the support of 39% of those polled.
According to PSR, three months prior, support for two states stood at around 32%. Figures were taken from Gaza and the West Bank, at 39% and 38%, respectively.
However, when asked about a separate Palestinian state not linked to the “two-state solution” and when state borders are identified as those of 1967, support rises to 59%, PSR found.
Half of the respondents prefer the two-state solution based on the 1967 borders, while 19% prefer a confederation between the two states of Palestine and Israel. Only 10% prefer establishing a single state with equality between Israelis and Palestinians.
When asked about solving the conflict and reaching statehood, nearly half of Palestinian respondents (48%) said they would choose “armed struggle” as a way to achieve it (50% in the West Bank, 36% in Gaza).
However, a third said they preferred negotiations to end the conflict, and 15% said they would like to see popular peaceful resistance.
International calls for two-states
Recent US administrations and other global actors have called for the end to the ongoing war and to reach a two-state solution between Israelis and Palestinians.
The Biden administration has attempted to broker a hostage and ceasefire deal as a first step. In remarks made ahead of the 79th session of the UN General Assembly in September, US President Joe Biden reiterated his support for a two-state solution.
“As we look ahead, we must also address the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank and set the conditions for a better future, including a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalized relations with all its neighbors, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own,” Biden said.
The survey conducted by Arab News and YouGov was conducted using a sample of 500 Arab Americans across the United States from September 26 to October 1, 2024. The survey data have a margin of error of +/- 5.93%.
The poll conducted by PSR comprised a sample size of 1,200 people, of whom 790 were interviewed face-to-face in the West Bank and 410 in Gaza. The margin of error stood at +/-3.5%.
-
Solar Energy3 years agoDLR testing the use of molten salt in a solar power plant in Portugal
-
world news1 year ago
Gulf, France aid Gaza, Russia evacuates citizens
-
Camera1 year agoDJI Air 3 vs. Mini 4 Pro: which compact drone is best?
-
world news1 year ago
Strong majority of Americans support Israel-Hamas hostage deal
-
Camera4 years agoCharles ‘Chuck’ Geschke, co-founder of Adobe and inventor of the PDF, dies at 81
-
Camera1 year agoSony a9 III: what you need to know
-
Solar Energy12 months agoGlencore eyes options on battery recycling project
-
TOP SCEINCE7 months agoCan animals count?
