Hamas believes that inertia now favors Hamas. It likely assumes that only when elections happen in Israel or there is some incentive for Jerusalem to return to fighting, that there might be another war, and otherwise, Hamas can do as it wants. Hamas has already murdered more than 1,000 people, more Jews in one day than at any time since the Shoah, and it continues to run Gaza after 17 months. It thinks Israel is incapable of defeating it or that interests in Israel prefer to keep Hamas in power and not replace it. Hamas will have to wait and see if this is the case. Until then, it will continue to float various hostage release concepts, as it did throughout 2024, to try to create short news cycles and controversy that favor Hamas as it stalls the negotiations. 

Fowler counters the criticism, explaining that UNRWA’s economic and service model is fundamentally different and of significant value. “It was designed as a sustained relief and works program until a viable solution is achieved, much like the 1930s US Tennessee Valley Authority.” Moreover, he adds, “the value for money is extraordinary – hiring locals not only brings local benefits but also costs 40%-50% less than employing internationals.”