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Yemen ballistic missile attack shows why time is not on Israel’s side – comment
Time might have been on Israel’s side for significant portions of the current war, but it no longer is and likely has not been since April-May.
Yemen’s ballistic missile attack on Israel on Sunday made this clearer than ever.
Too much of the conversation about how long the war should go revolves around whether more military pressure can crack Hamas and get the Israeli hostages back versus whether a deal must be cut now, even if Hamas remains in power, so as to get the hostages back as time runs out for them.
Too little of the conversation takes into account how much more vulnerable Israel is becoming to attack on new fronts. Regarding these new fronts, Israel might never have taken direct hits or might have avoided taking direct hits for years or decades more if not for the length of this war, gradually exposing additional asymmetric holes in Israel’s military power.In order of current severity, Israel is facing seven fronts of attack: Lebanon, Iran, Yemen, the West Bank, Gaza, Syria, and Iraq.
That’s right: Gaza is now probably only the fifth most dangerous front militarily, even though Israel is still treating it as the most important in terms of military resources (and diplomatically, it may be the most important front.)
Originally, when longer meant from October until January, part of the purpose of being willing to drag out the war longer was to take the necessary time to defeat Hamas in different pockets of Gaza while leaving time to move the Palestinian civilian population from place to place in between invasions.
Another part was to use the mix of ongoing pressure and threats of continued impending military invasions and pressure to wear Hamas down into cutting a deal to return the Israeli hostages.
A third part was that a slower war using strategic air strikes, tanks, and artillery as a prelude to infantry invasions of various areas meant fewer infantry casualties.
The theory was that Israel’s air defense was strong enough to withstand whatever Hamas could fire on the home front up until the point that the IDF destroyed most of Hamas’s rocket firing capability around December-January.
But all of this was assuming the war with Hamas would end around January – the official estimate of all defense officials in October-November – and that the other fronts would stay relatively quiet.
But as the war drew on, Hezbollah started firing on a larger number of northern towns and cities; Yemen joined the war, at first only against Eilat, but eventually also striking Tel Aviv, and now aiming again for central Israel.
Iran started pushing much harder to threaten Israel from the West Bank, Syria, and Iraq, as well as encouraging its proxies in Lebanon and Yemen to take more risks against Israel.
Israel’s increasing tolerance for terrorism
Prior to the war, Israel had come to terms with a horrible, nearly 20-year-long conceit that it would be “ok” with low-level rocket and other attacks on its Gaza corridor villages as long as this did not touch the rest of the country.
From March 2022 until October 7, 2023, most of Israel came to terms with it being “ok” for significant waves of terror against Jews in the West Bank as long as not too much of it crossed the Green Line.
Starting on October 8, 2023, Israel decided it was “ok” for 60,000 northern residents to be evacuated from their homes and for whole towns and cities to be ghost towns, not just for a few weeks, but for nearly a year and counting with no deadline in sight.
Then, it was “ok” for Eilat to be attacked from time to time by the Houthis as long as the missiles were shot down outside of Israeli airspace.
On April 13-14, it became “ok” for Iran to launch over 300 aerial threats at Israel as long as a remarkable number of the threats were shot down, people were not killed, and Israel got to “deter” Tehran in a retaliatory strike against its S-300 anti-aircraft missile system on April 19.
It was “ok” that Israel got into a huge fight about a partial arms freeze with the US in May and that the International Criminal Court and International Court of Justice, which had warned Israel but stayed on the sidelines from October to May, went more all out after the Jewish state in May.
It was “ok” that Hezbollah in August wanted to target 11 IDF bases and northern Tel Aviv key intelligence headquarters as long as the military preemptively struck hard enough on August 25 that Hezbollah’s main goals were thwarted.
The truth is that many of Israel’s nuanced approaches would have worked if the war had ended a long time ago or shortly after the nuanced retaliation.
And there were critics of Israel bashing it from November onward.
But when time continues to drag on, Israel’s enemies on many fronts have more time to dissect the way the IDF operates and when and where it lets its guard down more, and then get lots of chances to test the many potential holes. When time drags on, Israel’s legitimacy problems move from critics to its top allies like the US, UK, and France and metastasize with the international courts from a minor problem to a major crisis.
On Thursday of last week, I was in Rafah in Gaza. There were no Palestinians to be seen. No battles. No gunfire. I had my helmet and flak jacket, and they moved us around in a Namer armored vehicle. I felt as safe as could be. Of course, there are still thousands of Hamas terrorists in Gaza, and if anyone ignores them as we did on October 7, there could be another disaster in Israel’s future.
But right now, they can barely pose a threat to IDF forces a block away from them – and that only if the forces are not in Namers and lack air and tank support – let alone to anyone outside of Gaza.
This morning, waking up at 6:21 a.m. in Modiin to rocket sirens after months of quiet, not knowing whether Hezbollah or Iran was firing missiles at us, only to then learn that it was the Houthis, I felt far less safe than I had in Gaza.
When I traveled to Paatei Modiin Train Station Platform 4 this morning and saw the impact of shrapnel on an escalator I have walked on a thousand times, it was clear how many people could have been killed if the Houthis had fired an hour or two later than 6:21 a.m. This is without even getting to the mass mayhem and death that even one ballistic missile getting through to a populated area could cause.
How the war should end, and whether it should be with a quick ceasefire to get back the hostages or with a relatively quick but intense major invasion of Lebanon, synchronized with major strikes on other parties threatening Israel, is an important debate.
Yet, whichever direction is chosen, Israel should pick a direction and act to wrap things up rapidly and decisively.
And anyone who thinks that the war can just continue with no price on these other fronts beyond Gaza until after the US elections in November is kidding themselves and ignoring the writing on the wall on a grossly negligent and serial basis.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s briefing to the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Monday put him at odds with the IDF regarding how many haredi the military can absorb in a short amount of time.
Netanyahu said that while he was in favor of increasing haredi integration into the IDF, in practicality, the military needed more time to establish haredi-tailored programs and environments for this to be successful.
The prime minister’s remark comes days after top IDF officials presented a series of highly specific, customized programs for the ultra-Orthodox that are either already open or are “ready to go” as soon as the haredi respond to their military summons. This directly contradicts the prime minister’s words during the briefing.
Netanyahu spoke to the committee in a closed and classified hearing, but portions of what he said were, nevertheless, publicized, including his comments regarding haredi integration into the IDF.
When asked about the issue, Netanyahu said, “We would prefer that anyone who is not studying [in a yeshiva] share the burden [of military service.] But right now, there is a gap between what the army says it can absorb and what it can absorb, so the absorption capacity of the IDF needs to be increased.”
He added that there were intentions to create new frameworks that would allow the haredi to maintain their way of life as well as to respond to operational needs, such as establishing an ultra-Orthodox base along the border with Jordan that would be responsible for defense there.
How to fulfill the IDF’s need for more soldiers
Besides that example, Netanyahu said that the army’s need for more soldiers could be filled by extending the service of mandatory service soldiers as well as calling up a variety of reservists from among the population living in border communities who never responded to their call-ups or were given exemptions.
In contrast to Netanyahu’s statements, seeming to indicate that the IDF cannot absorb a significant increase of haredi men, the military has said repeatedly, dating back to August, that it has been ready to receive an additional 3,000 haredi per year, on top of the approximately 1,800 per year it has already been absorbing.
The announcement in August and the sending of summons to 3,000 members of the ultra-Orthodox community came after months of extensive work and the investment of significant resources to prepare both personnel and bases for a new, major influx.
One new option for service that the IDF has already added for the haredi to make their service more attractive is serving in technical and logistical capacities at hardened aircraft shelters at an air force base section where only men will serve.
Another new option is called the Yoav Track in logistics command centers, which includes fulfilling a wide variety of technical and logistic roles throughout the military, and not just in the Israel Air Force.
Also, though Netanyahu said that the IDF should look into forming a new haredi brigade, the military had already announced last week that on December 26, it would open one, distinct from Netzach Yehuda.
Netzach Yehuda had been the brigade that most of the haredi wanted to join to date. However, it has turned off many of the ultra-orthodox because it has a reputation for being more religious Zionist in nature than haredi.
Additionally, there is a recently established unit of haredi serving at the Ofer detention center, and that program is expected to grow.
Further, a Lt.-Col. with a hassidic Chabad background, who has joined the army. He will be focused on haredi affairs and making sure new inductees are comfortable and are having their needs addressed.
Despite a detailed presentation last week about all of these new service mediums as being already established for haredim, a spokesperson for Netanyahu doubled down on the claim that the IDF was still lacking in its capacity to absorb a major influx of haredi soldiers.
Tovah Lazaroff contributed to this report.
British rocker Paul Weller, Scottish band Primal Scream, and Irish rappers Kneecap will headline a ‘Gig For Gaza’ charity show at London’s O2 Academy Brixton on Dec. 13.
Weller, the former frontman for 1970s punk pioneers The Jam, is curating the show, with all proceeds going to organizations Medical Aid For Palestinians and Gaza Forever, which purportedly provide essential aid – including food, medical supplies, and emergency shelter – for Gazans who have been forced to flee their homes due to the Israel-Hamas War.
“This is an opportunity to enjoy a night of powerful music and make a tangible difference in the lives of people facing unimaginable hardship,” a press release for the show said. The concert will also feature guest speakers and short films.
Weller of Primal Scream performed with Palestinian flag
During a recent tour of the US, Weller, a longtime advocate for leftwing causes, performed with a Palestinian flag draped over his guitar amplifier. Speaking onstage from Glasgow, Scotland, last month, Weller said, “I would like to dedicate that last song to all the tens of thousands of women, children, babies, men, civilians in Palestine and Gaza. I would ask you one question. It’s really simple. There is no grey area. Are you for genocide, or are you against it? It’s a f–-king yes or no question…”
Over the summer, Primal Scream, which formed in the 1980s, gave their support for a jersey design for a Palestinian refugee football team based on their classic record ‘Screamadelica.’
In March, Kneecap withdrew from performing at the SXSW Festival in Austin, Texas, after it was revealed that the US Army was a “super sponsor” of the event as well as defense contractor RTX Corporation.
“It is done in solidarity with the people of Palestine and to highlight the unacceptable deep links the festival has to weapons companies,” the group explained of their decision via Instagram. “This will have a significant financial impact on Kneecap… but it isn’t an iota of hardship when compared with the suffering being inflicted on the people of Gaza.
None of the artists appearing nor promo material for the concert mentioned the 101 Israeli hostages being held by Hamas in Gaza, nor the October 7 massacre that killed over 1,200 Israelis and sparked the current war aimed at toppling Hamas.
David Brinn contributed to this report.
Support for a two-state solution in the Middle East among Arab Americans and Palestinians residing in the West Bank and Gaza is on the rise, according to two recent surveys.
The more recent survey from YouGov and Arab News was published on Tuesday. The Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) published the other in September.
A survey of Arab Americans leading up to the US presidential elections found that half of those polled (50%) believed in seeking a two-state solution.
The poll touched upon the future of the conflict and possible resolutions to see its conclusion. Half of Arab-Americans polled believed in seeking a two-state solution with shared governance over Jerusalem. 34% believe that there should be one state where Israelis and Palestinians have equal rights, and 9% stated that they were unsure.A separate poll conducted by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research (PSR) in September found that support for the concept of the two-state solution among Palestinians continues to rise and has the support of 39% of those polled.
According to PSR, three months prior, support for two states stood at around 32%. Figures were taken from Gaza and the West Bank, at 39% and 38%, respectively.
However, when asked about a separate Palestinian state not linked to the “two-state solution” and when state borders are identified as those of 1967, support rises to 59%, PSR found.
Half of the respondents prefer the two-state solution based on the 1967 borders, while 19% prefer a confederation between the two states of Palestine and Israel. Only 10% prefer establishing a single state with equality between Israelis and Palestinians.
When asked about solving the conflict and reaching statehood, nearly half of Palestinian respondents (48%) said they would choose “armed struggle” as a way to achieve it (50% in the West Bank, 36% in Gaza).
However, a third said they preferred negotiations to end the conflict, and 15% said they would like to see popular peaceful resistance.
International calls for two-states
Recent US administrations and other global actors have called for the end to the ongoing war and to reach a two-state solution between Israelis and Palestinians.
The Biden administration has attempted to broker a hostage and ceasefire deal as a first step. In remarks made ahead of the 79th session of the UN General Assembly in September, US President Joe Biden reiterated his support for a two-state solution.
“As we look ahead, we must also address the rise of violence against innocent Palestinians on the West Bank and set the conditions for a better future, including a two-state solution, where the world — where Israel enjoys security and peace and full recognition and normalized relations with all its neighbors, where Palestinians live in security, dignity, and self-determination in a state of their own,” Biden said.
The survey conducted by Arab News and YouGov was conducted using a sample of 500 Arab Americans across the United States from September 26 to October 1, 2024. The survey data have a margin of error of +/- 5.93%.
The poll conducted by PSR comprised a sample size of 1,200 people, of whom 790 were interviewed face-to-face in the West Bank and 410 in Gaza. The margin of error stood at +/-3.5%.
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