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‘Any small incident could spiral into big explosion’ as ceasefire nears
After lengthy negotiations, a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas that includes the release of hostages was approved by both warring sides early Wednesday. The announcement was made by the Foreign Ministry of Qatar, the main mediator of the agreement.
The Israeli government approved the deal—which would see the release of approximately 50 Israeli children and women—after an extended cabinet meeting. In return for the 50 hostages, Israel will release 150 Palestinian prisoners and stop its offensive on the Gaza Strip for four days. During this period, the hostages will be released gradually.
The deal is to begin implementation on Thursday. It will also include an increase in humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip.
The gradual nature of the agreement and the elusive character of Hamas make the deal a highly sensitive one that could easily be derailed and unfulfilled.
“Any argument against the deal is valid,” Dr. Michael Milstein, head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, told The Media Line. While Milstein believes the deal is necessary, he cautions that “Hamas is going to use the cease-fire to prepare itself for the next phase of the war.”
Hamas is not the only one holding hostages. The Palestinian Islamic Jihad has admitted to holding some Israelis, and other Gaza warlords are believed to be keeping others in hiding.
“Not all of these elements are under Hamas control. Any small incident could spiral into a big explosion,” said Milstein. “[Also], Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is not to be trusted. At any given moment, he can renege and decide to operate against the Israeli military.”
Families of hostages poised for tension-filled days
The families of those hostages set to be released are now poised for tension-filled days, holding their breath until they see their loved ones. The order of the release of the hostages is unknown, making the coming days almost impossible to bear.
Seven weeks into the fighting, there are also concerns that the lull could pose a grave danger for Israeli soldiers in Gaza. The forces are expected to remain inside the territory, putting them at risk, neck-to-neck with Hamas terrorists. But Israel has decided to take the risk.
“The government of Israel is committed to bringing all of the hostages home. Tonight, the government approved the outline for the first stage of achieving this goal,” read a statement by the Office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, released after the approval of the deal.
The Netanyahu government has been under intense pressure from the public to secure the release of the hostages. Three ministers voted against the deal, led by extreme right-wing National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who said it was a “dangerous outline that changes the equation.” Ben Gvir raised concerns that the deal would encourage more abductions.
According to Dr. Omer Zanany, Lt. Cl. (Res.), director of the Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking Program at Mitvim, the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, and head of the “Day After” Program of Mitvim and the Berl Katznelson Center, there are tactical risks that Israel took into consideration before agreeing to the deal.
“There is no question that the hostage issue is unparalleled to any other strategic issue on the agenda,” Zanany told The Media Line. “The cost of the pause and the ability of Hamas to regroup is one that is tolerable in order to achieve the main goal of releasing them.”
Israel has experience in botched cease-fires and lopsided prisoner deals. Hamas still holds the body of an Israeli officer whom it killed in a 2014 war, during a cease-fire between the sides.
Until today, Israelis are divided about the deal that brought the release of one Israeli soldier in 2011 in return for over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners. Not only was the price deemed too high by many, but also the identity of those released was controversial. Many of the prisoners were murderers who had killed Israelis.
Moreover, one of the released murderers came to be Hamas’ leader in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar. Sinwar is believed to be the mastermind behind the surprise and murderous offensive that started the current war. He is also the one Israel negotiated with, albeit indirectly, on the current deal.
Israeli officials, including Netanyahu, have not ruled out the assassination of Sinwar. Senior military officers have said they are searching for him “round the clock” as troops scour Gaza.
The current deal is only a partial one that is intended to release 50 or so of the 240 people abducted as part of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack.
“The hostages are Hamas’ and Sinwar’s insurance policy,” said Zanany. “As long as we are in some kind of a journey to release all of the hostages, any thoughts of assassination are in question. Whoever says there is no connection between the military operation and hostage release deals is lying. There is a price to pay for the release of hostages, but there is no other choice.”
By approving the current deal, which could be the first in a series of deals to release the hostages, Israel has perhaps forfeited its goal of destroying Hamas—a goal that Netanyahu has repeatedly promised the Israeli public he will deliver.
“We are at war, and we will continue the war,” Netanyahu said just before the approval of the deal. “We will continue until we achieve all our goals.”
Israel holds approximately 6,000 Palestinian prisoners in its jails. On Wednesday morning, the Justice Ministry released the names of those eligible for release as part of the deal. Most of them are males aged 18 and under, being held for rioting or rock-throwing. There are also several adult women, convicted of attempted stabbings of Israelis. Few are from the Gaza Strip.
In the statement released by the Israeli government regarding the terms of the deal, it added that the truce would be extended an extra day for every additional 10 hostages released by Hamas.
A longer pause in the fighting could lead to pressure on Israel to end its war without achieving its goal of toppling Hamas.
“Israel’s motive will remain after this deal, and there will still be hostages to release,” said Zanany. “However, Israel could lose momentum. It also depends on whether Hamas will continue firing rockets into Israel.”
Since the beginning of the fighting, Hamas has continued to fire rockets towards Israel. However, once Israel began its ground invasion over three weeks ago, the number of rockets fired into Israel has been reduced drastically.
“The army will know how to maintain its operational achievements,” said Israeli Defense Forces Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari when asked about the cease-fire.
As part of the deal, Israel has also agreed to daily pauses in drone surveillance over the Gaza Strip.
“This is one of Hamas’ greatest achievements,” Milstein said. “This will give it enough time to rearm, mobilize rockets, and reposition Hamas forces in Gaza City, where Israel has not gained full control of yet.”
Israel has focused most of its military activity in the northern Gaza Strip, directing the Palestinian civilian population to the south of the territory. The army has said the next phase of the fighting will focus on Gaza’s southern area. This will be an especially tricky phase, given the large number of displaced civilians there along with Hamas senior leadership believed to be in hiding there.
“Southern Gaza and the continuation of cleansing Gaza of Hamas are the next steps for Israel,” said Zanany. “Everyone in Israel agrees that there is still need to fight and realize the military goals.”
There are many stumbling blocks to be surpassed in the sensitive deal reached between Hamas and Israel.
“As long as Hamas feels like the agreement is beneficial to the rehabilitation of its military activities, the cease-fire will continue and the hostage releases will progress,” said Milstein. “This is the only criterion.”
With so many things that could go wrong, the region and its people are holding their breath.
An American-Irish citizen who traveled to Lebanon and Syria in an attempt to join the Hezbollah terrorist organization and fulfill his desire to kill Jews was arrested on Monday for making false statements to FBI agents, the Western District of Pennsylvania US Attorney’s Office announced.
Jack Danaher Molloy, 24, had converted to Shia Islam in February and traveled to Lebanon in August. According to an affidavit, Molloy was in contact with several individuals who sought to help him with his quest to join the terrorist organization.
Molloy had difficulty in enlisting with Hezbollah because he didn’t know Arabic, and the terrorist organization wasn’t recruiting foreigners during the October 7 War with Israel in the wake of intelligence failures like the September pager bomb attacks.
Molloy told an associate that he had been “told very politely that Hezb isn’t recruiting anymore” because “They can’t even trust Lebanese at this point” because of “too many security breaches.”
Contact warned him that his attempts to join might “escalate” to the point of him being suspected of being a Mossad agent.
“There are a lot of divisions you can apply for, but right now, they are not recruiting, they’re not accepting anyone, and due to the high number of Mossad agents and moles, appearing inside, sadly, so it’s gonnatake a while,” one contact told Molloy.
Molloy was also advised that boot camps and recruiting had been disrupted and that when the current “circumstances” were over, it would take three to four months before the group was organized enough to reopen to recruits.
Beginning training at a ‘young age’
An associate explained that Hezbollah operatives started with the organization at a “very young age,” going on to train at several different locations before being asked if they wished to become official members in the Shiite group’s military force. Joining Foreign brigades was difficult, requiring current members to vouch for him.
On October 9 Molloy went to Syria to join Hezbollah or another militia, but was told that the dynamics between armed groups in Syria made it “not very ethical” to join some Syrian resistance factions “due to the things that happened in Syria.”
Around this time, he told his mother that he was considering joining the Russian forces fighting against Ukraine in order to earn money, but he answered in the affirmative when his mother asked if his “master plan” was ” to join Hezbollah and kill Jews.”
On October 14, Molloy left Syria to return to the United States, assured by contacts that he would likely be able to join Hezbollah next year. Molloy landed at Pittsburgh International Airport on October 20, where he was questioned by FBI agents and lied about his intentions to join a US State Department-designated foreign terrorist organization.
Molloy told an associate that he had enrolled with the Iran-based online Al-Mustafa Open University, knowing its connection to Iran Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps. According to the affidavit, the Office of Foreign Assets Control sanctioned the university in 2020 because its branches facilitate IRGC Quds Force recruitment of international students.
Molloy, who had previously joined the American Reserve Officers’ Training Corps for two months, believed that his Irish background informed his hatred of Zionists and respect for Hezbollah.
The Irish and Hezbollah?
In October, he posted on X that “We Irish love Hezbollah, and personally, they were a major influence in me reverting to Islam and moving to Lebanon.”
“To me, I am continuing the fight my great-grandmother fought against the Zionists, but now Islamically,” he said to someone using Google Translate. “I have a very fierce hatred of these Zionists, and I need to fight…I have thought about this every moment of every day since I was 18, for 7 years now.”
Molloy’s computer and phone contained violent jihadist and Nazi images, including some depicting the execution of Jewish stereotypes. In one image, a character marked with a Nazi swastika shot a Jewish stereotype cartoon, and a similar representation of a Jew on his knees with a red inverted triangle above his head was shot execution-style in the back of his head.
One image on Molloy’s device depicted a Nazi SS soldier and a Jihadi with the slogan “one struggle” in English and Arabic. Another picture displayed Hezbollah fighters performing a Roman salute with the fusion of a Nazi and Lebanese flag in the backdrop. On the anniversary of October 7, Molloy created an email account called “k**ekiller696969” and, in 2019, used the address “glassofjuice88.” The latter phrase is a homophone for “Gas the Jews,” and the number “88” is a reference to a neo-Nazi numerical code for “Heil Hitler.”
The US Attorney’s Office said that Molloy faces the possibility of both a sentence of up to eight years in prison or a $250,000 fine.
On Sunday, I returned to The Jerusalem Post after being drafted as an IDF reservist for almost 80 days for my second tour of duty in Gaza since the October 7 Massacre. My anecdotal experience as an infantryman and perspective as a journalist in civilian life has given me a unique perspective on Gaza war issues, familiar and unexplored alike. These ten takeaways from someone who has been in the mud of the battlefield should be considered by policymakers and citizens in which much of the information about the war is second-hand information and hearsay.
1. The IDF is winning, and needs to be allowed to win
Compared to their operations during my first tour at the end of 2023, a sense that Hamas is collapsing has since developed. The terrorist organization once fielded ambush cells that conducted frequent hit-and-run anti-tank missile attacks and ambushes from a wide network of bunkers and tunnels for a guerilla defense in depth strategy.
Almost a year later, Hamas seems unable to operate on a strategic level, even from areas in which its battalions have remained structurally intact or reconstituted from degraded units. This is exemplified by Hamas’ inability to launch targeted reprisals for the death of military leaders, or even attempt traditional attacks on Jewish holidays or the anniversaries of October 7.
By and large, they do not operate at night or the light of day, clinging even closer to the low visibility of dawn and dusk, whereas their operatives would once more openly operate in daylight hours due to being able to escape underground after an attack. It appears that their tunnel networks have been greatly compromised, as they have had to travel along roads and weave between buildings.
Their legitimate operations focus on IED and lone sniper attacks rather than using heavier munitions, but a greater focus has been filming any engagement so that they can edit the footage so they can claim to foreign supporters and Israeli citizens that they have destroyed Israeli vehicles. Stealing humanitarian aid has apparently not been enough for some Hamas battalions, as in one case they have resorted to sending plainclothes operatives to loot food and supplies from abandoned IDF positions. Their mortar bombs fall far less accurate than they once were, and we did not encounter any enemy drone activity.
The Netzarim security corridor seems relatively safe, with paved roads, and outposts enjoying electricity provided by power lines. While many soldiers left Gaza positive about the IDF’s advancements, the path of victory is long and the journey should not be confused with its destination. Many soldiers have mixed their sense of Hamas’s significant degradation with the feeling that the military is being held back from decisive action, entering and leaving areas to allow Hamas to retain territorial control.
2. Gaza has suffered heavy damage
The extent of the damage to infrastructure hasn’t been completely appreciated by the general public, and Israeli and international leaders will need to develop extensive plans to rebuild the territory. Whole neighborhoods have been leveled during direct combat, the search and destruction of tunnels and booby traps, and the establishment of defensible positions.
If buildings have not been damaged by their proximity to explosives or pocked by suppressive fire, they have had their outer walls shaved away to reveal the possible presence of terrorists. Concrete rubble and trash are strewn along wide fields in the Gaza Strip and will need to be collected and moved before some areas are traversable, let alone livable. The IDF Spokespeople will also need to prepare to explain the extensive damage to civilian infrastructure.
3. Gaza was far from an ‘open-air prison’
One of the great shames about the extensive damage to Gazan infrastructure is that it was not the desolate “open-air prison” that it had been advertised as in anti-Israel propaganda.
While there certainly were residents living in desperate conditions, the houses, apartments, and villas that we cleared and took position had a decent and even opulent quality of life. All the homes we saw had televisions, computers, refrigerators, decorations, and food stores in line with an Israeli suburb. Our impression was not one of squalor, but normal conditions.
In rural areas villas and mansions oversaw sweeping vineyards on one side and a view of the ocean on the other, and in urban areas large schools, restaurants and other facilities. The lost potential and degraded conditions in Gaza make Hamas’s decision to attack Israel and weaponize their territory rather than develop what they held a shame all the greater.
4. Hamas weaponized Gaza
Much has been said about Hamas’s use of civilians as shields to deter IDF operations — A detained civilian told our troops that he was unable to travel from the North to South along humanitarian corridors because he had to bribe Hamas operatives who were bent on keeping civilians around them as cover. Yet the civilians are just one aspect of Hamas turning Gaza into a weapon to try to destroy Israel.
Tunnel networks are not just placed around or under civilian objects, terrorist infrastructure is integrated into civilian infrastructure in a way that makes the two indistinguishable. Civilian homes are turned into lookout and reconnaissance outposts, with members of families hired by terrorist organizations to provide intelligence, as was exemplified by the capture of spotters captured by a neighboring battalion. Armories are hidden within houses, to be accessed by plainclothes terrorists when they have the need to shed the veneer of being civilians.
Tunnel entrances can be found in the first floor of apartment buildings, not just in their backyards. Other homes are booby-trapped, leading to widespread suspicion of each home as being laced with explosives. With Gaza being weaponized in such a fashion, it has led military units to take precautions and actions that damage buildings and homes so that they can stay alive.
5. The IDF is not conducting a genocide
The purpose of our operations were not geared toward the elimination of Gazan civilians. There were never orders to kill civilians wantonly, and there were debates on if we had enough information to use deadly force and when it was legitimate to open fire. Civilians were allowed to pass by our positions along humanitarian corridors unmolested. These elements would not be found among a force that is devoted to mass murder or genocide. Civilian casualties are tragic, and unfortunately, they always occur in war, which is why such conflict should be avoided in the first place.
6. The IDF needs to restore discipline
While IDF soldiers are not engaged in mass war crimes or genocide, there is inappropriate and even criminal behavior. Other soldiers have shared with me stories of when they have seen looting, and I had to stop someone who had been temporarily attached to our battalion from taking a necklace from a house. While my battalion did not bring our cellphones into Gaza until our last week, when we were moved back to a rearguard outpost, we have seen the widespread use of phones by other neighboring units.
This is all the more shocking not just because posting on social media can be used by enemies to geo-locate positions and gather intelligence, but the violent machismo and inappropriate fooling around in videos and photographs discredits the moral legitimacy of the military and creates an overly relaxed and familiar environment that can get people killed. While journalists have to answer to the IDF censor, it felt to many of us that the IDF has done little to crack down on soldiers who are acting as poor spokespeople and even documenting what appear to be crimes.
Even small issues such as unsanctioned edgy uniform patches lead to a breakdown in discipline, which may lead to even greater behavior unbecoming of the IDF’s ethics. IDF leadership seems unwilling to want to deal with the overly involved families and loss of manpower that comes with disciplining inappropriate behavior.
7. Trust has been eroded in military leadership
The failures of the October 7 Massacre have led to a distrust of military brass among many soldiers and reservists that I have spoken to. It has become a common refrain among the ranks to not trust anyone above the rank of a battalion commander.
High-ranking officers are viewed critically as out-of-touch “October 6” officers who care more about the advancement of their careers through checking task boxes on their clipboards rather than actually changing the reality on the ground.
Reservists and mandatory soldiers alike are results-oriented, and if they feel that officers are more focused on satisfying their superiors rather than the realities on the ground, their orders will have less validity. Military brass, like the political leadership, need to prove to their men that their sacrifices for victory will not be in vain.
8. Reservists are frustrated with domestic squabbles
As news broke that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had fired Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, fierce debate broke out in the company about the legitimacy of the move. While Netanyahu’s camp claimed that there were professional differences over strategy that could not be overcome, and that the prosecution of the war required Gallant’s firing, too much suspicion and bad blood had been developed about political plays within the current government.
Many believe that the move was done to save the coalition because ultra-orthodox parties threatened to leave because of Gallant’s work towards drafting haredi youth. Such suspicions have been informed by some politicians continuing to pursue their prior political interests, such as major judicial reform proponents calling to renew the process.
While Israeli soldiers are fighting and dying, they don’t feel that politicians are with them and take the war seriously. This distrust extends to the opposition as well — with many of the same actors that were involved in the anti-reform camp pushing for hostage deals at varying cost, many soldiers have expressed to me that they can’t help to wonder if they are motivated by the good of the nation or their own political agendas.
9. The IDF needs more soldiers
As the war and debate about who has drafted has continued, reservists have become increasingly frustrated that some demographic groups are benefitting from the blood and toil of reservists while not contributing to the endeavor themselves. My battalion deputy commander and company commander have become involved in movements calling for a more equal draft.
The need for an increased draft comes as current reservists face multiple tours and are pushed off retirement. Our battalion saw a drop off in reenlistment as some reservists had to deal with crumbling families, businesses, and health. Many reservists came despite these challenges — the sacrifices that they have made are beyond just the risk of death and injury.
10. Soldiers deserve victory
The sacrifices that were made by reservists and mandatory soldiers were made under the implicit promise that they would be in exchange for victory. The state has to consider in its policies and strategic decisions not just the feelings of hostage families and residents who have to return home but also those who have willingly given everything for them and the state.
Reservists want resolution to the problems that led to October 7, they don’t want this war to become yet another round in ongoing conflict. While we will continue to fight for Israel, we don’t want to have to come back to Gaza and Lebanon in a few years time — for not just our sake, but also for that of all Israelis and Palestinians.
Three soldiers became the latest targets of anti-Israel organizations seeking to doxx and level legal challenges against Israeli servicemen abroad.
The Belgium-based Hind Rajab Foundation (HRF) called for the arrest of three Nahal Brigade soldiers for alleged war crimes after they entered the Netherlands on Thursday. The March 30 Movement branch submitted a complaint the same day, charging that the Granite battalion soldiers had been involved in operations in which Gazan homes were burned and the Rafah crossing was damaged without any military necessity.
The disruption of the Rafah crossing constricted the flow of aid in an act of “weaponized famine,” the group said.
The three soldiers were named on social media, and their pictures were shared by the foundation. The doxxing came days after the group filed a complaint to the International Criminal Court against a soldier and called for his arrest while he was visiting the United Arab Emirates.
Many of the foundation’s accusations do not list specific actions by soldiers but place them within Gaza or the West Bank during operations.
Other allegations and doxxing, such as those against an Israeli reservist officer who had to flee Cyprus in mid-November, are based on video and photographs posted by the soldiers on social media. Ynet reported that the officer coordinated his departure from the country with the Israeli Foreign Ministry after the HRF called on Cypriot officials to arrest him over two videos in which he allegedly burned and called to destroy Gazan civilian objects.
Following the November 21 ICC issuance of arrest warrants against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former defense minister Yoav Gallant, the foundation called on the international body to also issue warrants against 1,000 IDF soldiers listed in an October 8 dossier it filed to the ICC.
The HRF claimed that it had gathered 8,000 pieces of documentation detailing the destruction of infrastructure, occupation of civilian homes, looting, participating in a blockade of Gaza, and targeting civilians. The documentation reportedly included soldiers boasting “about their war crimes on social media, sharing photos and videos of their participation in the destruction and occupation of Palestinian homes and properties.”
Some of the soldiers had dual citizenship, including 12 French, 12 American, four Canadian, three British, and two Dutch citizens.
More than one group targeting Israeli soldiers
The HRF is not the only group doxxing IDF soldiers who have participated in the war.
The Israel Genocide Tracker X/Twitter account, which has over 160,000 followers, shares the names and pictures of soldiers who had allegedly been in Gaza. Many of those identified by the account are dual-nationals, such as an American-Israeli Golani Reconnaissance battalion sniper doxxed on Saturday.
“We firmly believe that every soldier who entered Gaza is complicit in the genocide,” the group said in a social media post last Monday, defending their operations from those arguing that the account’s posts interfered in ongoing legal and journalistic investigations.
“We will soon release comprehensive lists of soldiers’ names to support international legal actions. We are already collaborating with various human rights organizations that rely on our data to pursue justice.”
Telegram channels published a file allegedly containing the personal information of several thousand soldiers and security officials last Sunday.
The viability of the legal cases against these soldiers is unclear, according to legal experts, with the main objective being the intimidation of IDF soldiers.
Universal jurisdiction
NGO Monitor legal adviser Anne Herzberg said that it is difficult to know if individual cases are actionable without knowing their specifics, but there was concern that courts in countries with weak judicial systems and inadequate due process could be exploited, and warrants could be issued based on “flimsy evidence” and “no advance notice.”
“Anti-Israel NGOs have pushed universal jurisdiction cases against Israeli military and government officials for years as a complement to their lobbying for ICC proceedings,” said Herzberg.
“The shift by these groups to the targeting of thousands of lower-ranking dual-national Israelis has two purposes. First, these cases are about generating negative PR – to internationally tarnish the IDF by delegitimizing and criminalizing IDF service. The second purpose is to deter dual nationals from serving in the IDF for fear they might be subject to criminal proceedings if they return to their countries of origin.
“This second purpose constitutes a military and national security threat and should be taken very seriously by both Israeli and Western officials. It should come as no surprise that several of these NGOs have links to the Muslim Brotherhood, Hamas, or other terror organizations.”
International Legal Forum CEO Arsen Ostrovsky said that these lawfare campaigns were “entirely without merit and no more than political stunts” but noted that “given the changing political climate and growing hostility against Israel in some parts of Europe, there is no guarantee that some countries will not entertain this charade in the future.”
“As a response to this growing threat, Israel should consider adopting a US-style American Service-Members’ Protection Act, which authorizes the use of all means necessary to secure the release of American soldiers and persons taken captive by, on behalf, or at the request of the International Criminal Court, in this case being equally applicable if IDF soldiers (or former soldiers) were detained on the instructions of the ICC and/or individual countries,” said Ostrovsky.
“The United States, which is currently putting a devastating sanctions framework [together] against the ICC over their issuing of arrest warrants against Prime Minister Netanyahu and Yoav Gallant, should sanction any country that not only seeks to apply the ICC warrants but takes individual actions to arrest IDF soldiers.
“And lastly, Israel should also make it a priority to sign bilateral immunity agreements with other countries, acknowledging the independence of Israel’s judicial system and undertaking not to arrest any IDF soldiers, whether current or former, thereby allowing Israelis the ability to travel freely, without fear of arrest.”
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