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‘Any small incident could spiral into big explosion’ as ceasefire nears
After lengthy negotiations, a cease-fire between Israel and Hamas that includes the release of hostages was approved by both warring sides early Wednesday. The announcement was made by the Foreign Ministry of Qatar, the main mediator of the agreement.
The Israeli government approved the deal—which would see the release of approximately 50 Israeli children and women—after an extended cabinet meeting. In return for the 50 hostages, Israel will release 150 Palestinian prisoners and stop its offensive on the Gaza Strip for four days. During this period, the hostages will be released gradually.
The deal is to begin implementation on Thursday. It will also include an increase in humanitarian aid to the Gaza Strip.
The gradual nature of the agreement and the elusive character of Hamas make the deal a highly sensitive one that could easily be derailed and unfulfilled.
“Any argument against the deal is valid,” Dr. Michael Milstein, head of the Palestinian Studies Forum at the Moshe Dayan Center for Middle Eastern and African Studies, told The Media Line. While Milstein believes the deal is necessary, he cautions that “Hamas is going to use the cease-fire to prepare itself for the next phase of the war.”
Hamas is not the only one holding hostages. The Palestinian Islamic Jihad has admitted to holding some Israelis, and other Gaza warlords are believed to be keeping others in hiding.
“Not all of these elements are under Hamas control. Any small incident could spiral into a big explosion,” said Milstein. “[Also], Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar is not to be trusted. At any given moment, he can renege and decide to operate against the Israeli military.”
Families of hostages poised for tension-filled days
The families of those hostages set to be released are now poised for tension-filled days, holding their breath until they see their loved ones. The order of the release of the hostages is unknown, making the coming days almost impossible to bear.
Seven weeks into the fighting, there are also concerns that the lull could pose a grave danger for Israeli soldiers in Gaza. The forces are expected to remain inside the territory, putting them at risk, neck-to-neck with Hamas terrorists. But Israel has decided to take the risk.
“The government of Israel is committed to bringing all of the hostages home. Tonight, the government approved the outline for the first stage of achieving this goal,” read a statement by the Office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, released after the approval of the deal.
The Netanyahu government has been under intense pressure from the public to secure the release of the hostages. Three ministers voted against the deal, led by extreme right-wing National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir, who said it was a “dangerous outline that changes the equation.” Ben Gvir raised concerns that the deal would encourage more abductions.
According to Dr. Omer Zanany, Lt. Cl. (Res.), director of the Israeli-Palestinian Peacemaking Program at Mitvim, the Israeli Institute for Regional Foreign Policies, and head of the “Day After” Program of Mitvim and the Berl Katznelson Center, there are tactical risks that Israel took into consideration before agreeing to the deal.
“There is no question that the hostage issue is unparalleled to any other strategic issue on the agenda,” Zanany told The Media Line. “The cost of the pause and the ability of Hamas to regroup is one that is tolerable in order to achieve the main goal of releasing them.”
Israel has experience in botched cease-fires and lopsided prisoner deals. Hamas still holds the body of an Israeli officer whom it killed in a 2014 war, during a cease-fire between the sides.
Until today, Israelis are divided about the deal that brought the release of one Israeli soldier in 2011 in return for over 1,000 Palestinian prisoners. Not only was the price deemed too high by many, but also the identity of those released was controversial. Many of the prisoners were murderers who had killed Israelis.
Moreover, one of the released murderers came to be Hamas’ leader in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar. Sinwar is believed to be the mastermind behind the surprise and murderous offensive that started the current war. He is also the one Israel negotiated with, albeit indirectly, on the current deal.
Israeli officials, including Netanyahu, have not ruled out the assassination of Sinwar. Senior military officers have said they are searching for him “round the clock” as troops scour Gaza.
The current deal is only a partial one that is intended to release 50 or so of the 240 people abducted as part of Hamas’ Oct. 7 attack.
“The hostages are Hamas’ and Sinwar’s insurance policy,” said Zanany. “As long as we are in some kind of a journey to release all of the hostages, any thoughts of assassination are in question. Whoever says there is no connection between the military operation and hostage release deals is lying. There is a price to pay for the release of hostages, but there is no other choice.”
By approving the current deal, which could be the first in a series of deals to release the hostages, Israel has perhaps forfeited its goal of destroying Hamas—a goal that Netanyahu has repeatedly promised the Israeli public he will deliver.
“We are at war, and we will continue the war,” Netanyahu said just before the approval of the deal. “We will continue until we achieve all our goals.”
Israel holds approximately 6,000 Palestinian prisoners in its jails. On Wednesday morning, the Justice Ministry released the names of those eligible for release as part of the deal. Most of them are males aged 18 and under, being held for rioting or rock-throwing. There are also several adult women, convicted of attempted stabbings of Israelis. Few are from the Gaza Strip.
In the statement released by the Israeli government regarding the terms of the deal, it added that the truce would be extended an extra day for every additional 10 hostages released by Hamas.
A longer pause in the fighting could lead to pressure on Israel to end its war without achieving its goal of toppling Hamas.
“Israel’s motive will remain after this deal, and there will still be hostages to release,” said Zanany. “However, Israel could lose momentum. It also depends on whether Hamas will continue firing rockets into Israel.”
Since the beginning of the fighting, Hamas has continued to fire rockets towards Israel. However, once Israel began its ground invasion over three weeks ago, the number of rockets fired into Israel has been reduced drastically.
“The army will know how to maintain its operational achievements,” said Israeli Defense Forces Spokesman Rear Adm. Daniel Hagari when asked about the cease-fire.
As part of the deal, Israel has also agreed to daily pauses in drone surveillance over the Gaza Strip.
“This is one of Hamas’ greatest achievements,” Milstein said. “This will give it enough time to rearm, mobilize rockets, and reposition Hamas forces in Gaza City, where Israel has not gained full control of yet.”
Israel has focused most of its military activity in the northern Gaza Strip, directing the Palestinian civilian population to the south of the territory. The army has said the next phase of the fighting will focus on Gaza’s southern area. This will be an especially tricky phase, given the large number of displaced civilians there along with Hamas senior leadership believed to be in hiding there.
“Southern Gaza and the continuation of cleansing Gaza of Hamas are the next steps for Israel,” said Zanany. “Everyone in Israel agrees that there is still need to fight and realize the military goals.”
There are many stumbling blocks to be surpassed in the sensitive deal reached between Hamas and Israel.
“As long as Hamas feels like the agreement is beneficial to the rehabilitation of its military activities, the cease-fire will continue and the hostage releases will progress,” said Milstein. “This is the only criterion.”
With so many things that could go wrong, the region and its people are holding their breath.
The United States is deferring the removal of certain Lebanese citizens from the country, President Joe Biden said on Friday, citing humanitarian conditions in southern Lebanon amid tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.
The deferred designation, which lasts 18 months, allows Lebanese citizens to remain in the country with the right to work, according to a memorandum Biden sent to the Department of Homeland Security.
“Humanitarian conditions in southern Lebanon have significantly deteriorated due to tensions between Hezbollah and Israel,” Biden said in the memo.
“While I remain focused on de-escalating the situation and improving humanitarian conditions, many civilians remain in danger; therefore, I am directing the deferral of removal of certain Lebanese nationals who are present in the United States.”Increased attacks since Oct.7
Israel and Hezbollah have been trading fire since Hezbollah announced a “support front” with Palestinians shortly after its ally Hamas attacked southern Israeli border communities on Oct. 7, triggering Israel’s military assault in Gaza.
The fighting in Lebanon has killed more than 100 civilians and more than 300 Hezbollah fighters, according to a Reuters tally, and led to levels of destruction in Lebanese border towns and villages not seen since the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war.
On the Israeli side, 10 Israeli civilians, a foreign agricultural worker and 20 Israeli soldiers have been killed. Tens of thousands have been evacuated from both sides of the border.
Hezbollah is an Iran-backed terrorist group and the most powerful military and political force in Lebanon.
world news
Preparing for war: Haifa mayor describes city’s infrastructure changes tensions in North escalate
Haifa mayor Yona Yahav spoke this past Monday with Lior Rosenfeld on Radio North 104.5FM about the escalation of the war in the North and his entry into political office amidst the security situation.
Yahav began, “I cannot speak on behalf of the North as I don’t know exactly what’s happening there. No one updates me, as if we are not the largest and most important city in the North. Tomorrow, the Home Front Command is coming to see us for the first time, and we will see what they have to say. We are doing everything to ensure that the city itself and our residents are safe and know what to do in case, God forbid, missiles fall on us. They are more accurate than those in 2006.”
Yahav also discussed the city’s preparations for a war in the North.
“We are now changing the entire method of building public structures,” Yahav said. “We are preparing them for prolonged stays. The minimum will be four consecutive days in shelters and such buildings, which require preparation. For example, installing toilets, which we don’t have today, and we have given instructions to build them in places close to where new houses are being built. This has been fully understood, and developers have begun to understand that the talk about evacuation and reconstruction has undergone drastic changes in light of the security situation. For example, road width needs to be maintained for the sake of evacuating residents on these roads. These are things that were not considered until now and must now be taken into account.”
Yahav’s plans for the success of Haifa’s future
Yahav then discussed his appeal to the transportation minister to stop the Highway 23 Carmel Tunnels’ toll charge.
“We called on the transportation minister to stop the discrimination. Haifa and the North are always discriminated against compared to central Israel, and there’s no reason for this. There are huge tunnels dug in Jerusalem that do not cost residents any money to pass through. There’s no reason why the tunnels dug in Haifa should include a toll. I speak on behalf of Haifa residents, and we are preparing to petition if we do not receive an answer.”
Regarding his entry into his mayoral role about three months ago, Yahav said, “I found a completely ruined city. They destroyed the municipality, and it’s very difficult to move things around. I don’t understand how residents sat idly by and kept quiet. We are trying to go to government offices to fix relations, to get funds, to move projects to bring in fees – and we are doing all this in a short time.
“The ministers are acting openly and with the goodwill to help. I am now waiting for the money on the table. The casino building in Bat Galim will be a luxurious hotel on the Bat Galim seashore. This neighborhood will undergo a complete transformation and will be the most beautiful neighborhood in the country. It will also be the only neighborhood facing a recognized beach. We came to make a change, and we will succeed.”
In conclusion, he touched on the issue of wild boars: “You won’t be able to follow them because soon you won’t see them anymore.”
world news
‘Psychological operation’: Turkey condemns FM Katz social media post depicting toddler Erdogan
Turkey’s Foreign Affairs Ministry released a statement on Sunday condemning a social media post made by Foreign Minister Israel Katz, in which Katz presented Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan as a toddler on the lap of Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Katz, in a Sunday post on X, wrote “Erdogan @RTErdogan finances and arms terrorist organizations of Hamas to carry out attacks and murder against Israelis. The General Security Service captured a squad of students from Bir Zeit who were employed by the Hamas headquarters in Turkey to carry out murder attacks in Israel, through training and weapons and tens of thousands of dollars provided to them.
“Erdogan turned Turkey into a state that supports terrorism and subjects Turkey to the Iranian axis of evil in the name of extreme ideology and blatant anti-Semitism.”
Katz’s comments were made in reference to a recently thwarted terror attack planned by the student Hamas cell in Bir Zeit University, north of Ramallah. The attempted attack, the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) said, was directed by Hamas’s base in Turkey.ארדואן @RTErdogan מממן ומחמש ארגוני טרור של החמאס לביצוע פיגועים ורצח נגד ישראלים. שירות הביטחון הכללי לכד חוליית סטודנטים מביר זית שהופעלו ע”י מפקדת החמאס בטורקיה לביצוע פיגועי רצח בישראל, באמצעות אימונים ונשק ועשרות אלפי דולרים שסופקו להם.ארדואן הפך את טורקיה למדינה תומכת טרור… pic.twitter.com/R0SCjYdngN
— ישראל כ”ץ Israel Katz (@Israel_katz) July 21, 2024
Turkey condemns the social media post
The Turkish ministry responded “The Israeli Foreign Minister is trying to hide Israel’s crimes against the Palestinians behind a series of lies, slander and disrespect.
“Israel’s dirty propaganda targeting Türkiye and President Erdoğan, and psychological operation attempts will not bear fruit.
“The members of the Netanyahu Government, who have killed nearly forty thousand Palestinians in Gaza and are now trying to start a regional war in order to stay in power, will be tried in international courts and held accountable for their crimes.
“Türkiye will continue to speak the truth and defend the right of the Palestinian people to live in justice and peace.”
The ministry cited data provided by the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry, which does not distinguish between combatants and civilians.
Additionally, Turkey has repeatedly asserted that it does not categorize Hamas as a terrorist organization – despite its western allies acknowledging it as such and its proven attacks on Israeli civilians.
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