IDN believes that the Ababeel Missile is just a routine Pakistani propaganda bluster to counter the substantive threat India’s Advanced Ballistic Missile Defence program poses its security. Program AD has taken decades to accomplish and mature as a credible deterrence mainly against Chinese belligerence, Pakistan in all likelihood is just an afterthought in this equation for India’s policy makers. How can a country which buys its missiles from rouge suppliers develop such a sophisticated piece of weapon in less than 5 years. Its laughable to even consider its viability. Hence, we at IDN feel that there’s no cause  for concern on this big piece of balderdash

Last month, Pakistan successfully test-fired a medium-range ballistic missile, designed to penetrate India’s developing air defence system. The Ababeel weapon system is designed to deliver multiple warheads in a single flight. Once deployed, they can effectively hit targets anywhere in India. China-provided optical tracking equipment played a critical role in the launch of the Ababeel medium range ballistic missile last month.

Ababeel’s second test, first being in 2017, was conducted from the Sakhi Sarwar range in Pakistan’s Punjab province on October 18 for “re-validating various design, technical parameters and performance evaluation of different sub-systems of the weapon system”, according to Pakistan’s public broadcaster.

In a blog post, Antoine Levesques, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS), said that Ababeel is capable of carrying independently targetable re-entry vehicles (MIRVs).

What Is MIRV?

A MIRV is a sophisticated missile technology that allows a single ballistic missile to carry multiple warheads, each capable of being aimed at hitting a different target. This technology is significant in strategic nuclear warfare, as it enables a single missile to effectively target several locations simultaneously.

MIRVs were developed as part of the arms race during the Cold War, primarily to increase the effectiveness of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs). The concept of MIRV involves launching multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicles (ICBMs and SLBMs) carrying nuclear warheads.

The United States was the first country to have deployed MIRV technology on an ICBM in 1970. Today, the US, the UK, and France use MIRV technology on SLBMs while China has integrated this technology with its ICBMs. Russia is the only country to have MIRVed both its ICBMs and SLBMs, as per the Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation.

India’s MIRV Program

So where does India stand in the MIRV race? Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) is developing its indigenous MIRV technology. Though New Delhi has not officially revealed its plan, media reports talk of at least two tests of Agni Prime missile with MIRV technology.

Agni-P, the latest but miniaturized version of Agni missiles, reportedly carried MIRVs or its decoys during its first test flight in June 2021 and during pre-induction night launch conducted by the Strategic Forces Command – the authority responsible for the management and administration of the country’s tactical and strategic nuclear weapons stockpile in India.

However, the South Asian giant has not officially confirmed it. The Centre for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation says India is still seeking this capability.

While Agni-P has a range of 1,500-2,000 km, Agni VI – another missile being developed with MIRV integration – can strike targets up to 9,000 kms and 12,000 kms capable of carrying up to ten nuclear/thermonuclear warheads.

The short answer is no. But MIRV’s capability to deliver warheads hundreds of km apart, experts say, can overwhelm India’s Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) – currently protecting capital New Delhi and economic hub Mumbai.

Speaking to IT, former Indian Air Force (IAF) Group Captain UK Devnath said: “Normally, surveillance radar can track multiple missiles. However, with MIRV missiles, the challenge is different. The warheads of a MIRV missile are released late in the missile’s trajectory, during the reentry phase.

This timing means that the tracking radar and its operators have a very limited window to analyze the trajectory of each individual warhead. Consequently, they have less time to react and launch separate anti-missile defenses against each warhead, significantly complicating the interception process.”

However, he believes that Russia-made S-400 batteries – currently deployed along the borders with China and Pakistan – are “perfectly capable of tackling any threat from any Pakistani MIRV missile”.

Former director general of the Indian Army Infantry, Lt Gen Sanjay Kulkarni (Retd) echoes similar views. “With three mobile batteries (of S-400) in location and two more expected early 2025, the Pakistan Air Force stations feel threatened,” he weighed in.

IISS researcher Levesques says the Russian-made surface-to-air missile defence system “presents an immediate challenge to Pakistan’s ability to penetrate Indian airspace, with the subsonic Ra’ad and Babur land-attack cruise missiles being especially vulnerable”.

India’s ballistic missile defence operates on a two-layered approach, comprising the Prithvi Air Defence Vehicle (PAD) or Prithvi Defence Vehicle (PDV) and the Ashwin Advanced Air Defence (AAD) interceptors.

The PAD/PDV is designed to engage targets at Exo-atmospheric heights ranging from 50 to 180 kms whereas the AAD system can neutralize threats at altitudes between 20 and 40 kms. Both interceptor types have undergone multiple successful tests.

Islamabad believes that India’s rapid development, test and deployment of land and sea-based missiles defences will give Indian armed forces an edge in nuclear strike capabilities, and deprive Islamabad of retaliation.

Pakistan-based analysts argue that Ababeel’s second test was prompted by the successful test by India of the warship-based “endo-atmospheric interceptor missile” defence system in April this year.

On paper, a BMD system looks like a defensive matter, but it is in actuality an offensive development. In this case, BMD is a cardinal part of the Indian nuclear strategy of launching pre-emptive strikes on Pakistan’s counterforce targets while remaining immune from Pakistan’s retaliatory nuclear response,” Pakistani researchers Usman Haider and Abdul Moiz Khan argue in The Diplomat piece.