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Ex-CENTCOM chief: Lower Iranian officials can push nuke breakout without Khamenei – interview
Lower Iranian officials could potentially push the country to break out to a nuclear weapon even without consulting their Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, former CENTCOM chief and JINSA distinguished fellow General Kenneth “Frank” McKenzie has told the Jerusalem Post.
In a recent interview, McKenzie was asked about recent reports by the Jerusalem Post and others, including US and Israeli officials, that the Islamic Republic is finally advancing its nuclear “weapons group” activities, such as nuclear detonation issues, and not only its uranium enrichment activities.
He responded, “I think they are flirting with breaking out, but they have not made a decision to do it. The command and control in Iran is so rickety, that you cannot assume a decision by the Supreme Leader. This could happen at a lower level.”
“The Iranians routinely have taken military action at lower levels without approval of the Supreme Leader. There is no reason not to apply this to other elements as well and I would not be surprised,” said McKenzie.The former CENTCOM chief and JINSA distinguished fellow added that his analysis on this point was based “on actions we have seen in the military sphere.”
McKenzie’s comment were extremely significant because the conventional wisdom tends to be that Khamenei has tight control over nuclear policy, buy former IDF intelligence chief Tamir Hayman has told the Post in the past that the best way to track any potential Iranian decision to breakout to a nuclear bomb would be to follow nuclear scientists and officials at the lower levels.
With all of the focus on the Iranian nuclear threat, McKenzie had some other interesting views on the Islamic Republic, including that its ballistic missiles threat is currently more dangerous than the nuclear threat.
“My argument about Iran, which is contrary to lots of people, is that Iran doesn’t want to possess a nuclear weapon, but wants to be able to possess a nuclear weapon. They are flirting with breakout. They can produce enough fissile material in a matter of weeks. But they have not chosen to do it. By not crossing that line, from which they could never come back from, they can work on the US and the Europeans for concessions,” he said.
Further, he stated, “The other half of the equation, the Iran nuclear weapons problem is not a physics problem, because they are so close…But they must have a missile to take it there [to the target] and a warhead which can survive reentry into the atmosphere. It will take months, perhaps many months. The physics problem can be solved quickly. This is an aeronautical engineering problem.”
Regarding, “the other half of the equation – we [the US and Israel] agreed that Tehran should not be allowed to possess nuclear weapons. However, what the Iranians have done over the last 10-15 years is improve their ballistic missile, drone, land attack cruise missile capabilities” against the Saudis, the UAE, Bahrain, and Qatar, such that Iran “can gain overmatch [overpower] against them.”
The Iran missile attack
On April 13-14, Iran fired around 120 ballistic missiles, 170 drones, and dozens of cruise missiles at Israel.
“What is new to the equation? They tasted their template in mid-April. By any objective situational assessment, the attack [against Israel] failed.” Then explaining why Iran’s April attack failed, he said, “the Israelis are pretty good, the US assisted, neighbors in the region assisted, geography assisted given that Iranian missiles had to travel a long way. This gave Israel strategic depth in which to intercept those weapons. So Iran must recalculate,” how much it can threaten Israel.
McKenzie recounted that former Iranian president Ebrahim Raisi said after US President Joe Biden was elected and “there was talk about returning to the JCPOA and there was talk also about other weapons,” being limited within the deal. The Iranians said, “we are never going to give up our ballistic missiles. They represent the center of gravity of Iranian capabilities – not necessarily the nuclear program.”
Further, McKenzie argued that Iran’s April attack on Israel had nothing to do with Gaza. Rather, he said it was a show of how desperate Iran was to do something to stop Israel from pummeling it in the “shadow war” between the countries.
Digging into the details of the ballistic missile threat Iran posed in April versus the threat they could pose going forward, he explained that out of around 3,000 total ballistic missiles, the Iranians have around 1,000 total ballistic missiles which have sufficient range to reach Tel Aviv.
But both to the Post and in a separate JINSA event, he discussed Iran’s “salvo rate”: meaning that Tehran probably can only fire a couple hundred missiles at a time maximum because it only has around 300 ballistic missile launchers and even fewer TEL (Transporter Erector Launcher] tractors, around 100-250, for moving the ballistic missiles to launch positions. This limits the number of ballistic missiles it could launch at Israel at a time probably to between 100-250, as opposed to the full 1,000.
The former CENTCOM chief said, “This has been a problem for the Iranians throughout. April probably represented the most ballistic missiles they can shoot at any time – based on the number of launchers.”
He did acknowledge that the Islamic Republic “could reload, but it takes time to do that. This is an important technical and tactical distinction.”
Told by the Post that current US defense officials urged Israel not to respond at all to Iran’s April attack, given that Tehran was embarrassed by Israel and its allies’ success in shooting down 99% of the aerial threats, McKenzie said that this approach “was a misunderstanding of the basic relationships in the Middle East. Turning the other cheek does not go a long way in the region.”
“The level of the Israeli response was brilliant and carefully calibrated. They walked a very fine line – it was just enough, but not too much,” referring to Israel’s destruction on April 19 of a key part of Iran’s S-300 antiaircraft missile system meant to protect its critical Natanz nuclear facility.
Next, McKenzie was asked about what lessons should be drawn from the more recent exchange of attacks and threatened attacks between Israel, Iran, and Hezbollah over the killing of Hezbollah military chief Fuad Shukr and the killing of Hamas political chief Ismail Haniyeh while he was visiting Tehran.
Will Iran still launch a new major attack in the near future as its Supreme Leader Khamenei had promised? McKenzie responded, “I think he got cold feet. The Supreme Leader said right after the strike in Tehran, that they would respond in 48 hours. Then nothing happened. Here is why. He listened to his military guys who told him ‘our options against Israel will probably lead to the same result’” as Israel’s embarrassment of Iran in April.
He added, “Israel’s response to [Iran’s aerial attack] on April 13, was brilliant. They went into the Isfahan corridor and caused minimal damage. They used technological superiority with restraint. The Iranians are befuddled by it. They [Israel] didn’t push the US away [by overreacting], they didn’t push other countries away from Israel… and the Iranians don’t have a capability to hurt Israel directly.”
However, he warned “Lebanese Hezbollah does have such a capability [to harm Israel directly], but if they generate a massive attack – such as hundreds of missiles into Tel Aviv and Haifa over a short period of time, the Israeli response would be massive and overwhelming. They [Israel] can hurt Hezbollah deeply and [Hezbollah Chief Hassan] Nasrallah understands that. It will not be a stalking horse for Iran, even though it is supported by it.”
Further, he said, “Nasrallah’s relative position in Lebanon is weaker than in the past. The government is in paralysis. Hezbollah is getting the blame. He is not as strong politically as [during the Second Lebanon War] in 2006. He is committed to destroying Israel, but he won’t engage in strategic combat” if he would face strategic defeat.
Continuing, he said, “There is lower level back and forth and this moved Israeli citizens south [fleeing Hezbollah missile fire in the North]. But Lebanese Hezbollah has no interest in getting into a big war, and they know about Iran’s limited ability” to strike at Israel.
Questioned about whether Iran could adjust its ballistic missile delivery process to achieve greater strategic surprise against Israel, he said, “Nothing stays the same. The Iranians work very hard to get better. They can build more TELS, drones and land [based] cruise missiles to destroy Israeli radars. All air defenses are ineffective against ballistic missiles without radars.”
But no matter how Iran improves, he said Israel would have a long warning time, with the Post noting around a 16 minute warning time in April: “16 minutes is a long time. Iran’s ballistic missiles are more Gulf-oriented. They could go to underground sites and fixed sites. But fixed sites can be destroyed. We should encourage them to do fixed moves,” he said with a sly smile.
Addressing the question of whether Israel has missed the opportunity to normalize with the Saudis due to the current war extending for nearly a year, and given that McKenzie knew Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman personally as CENTCOM chief, he said, “Normalization is inevitable because it is driven by Iranian behavior, which poses an existential threat to the close Saudi and Gulf states. It may be delayed a bit, but it is inevitable that nations must act about what threatens their highest survival.”
Confronting the state of the war in Gaza, McKenzie said, “In 11 months, there has been significant military attrition of Hamas. But I don’t think it is completely finished militarily. If the US or Israel militarily take 20-30% casualties, they become combat ineffective because we maneuver on attack.”
In contrast, Hamas is “fighting in fixed cells and does not maneuver, so it can absorb much larger casualties. They cannot carry out command and control functions, but they can fight until they die. That’s why Hamas on the ground is still a factor in Gaza.”
Signaling an optimistic hope, he said, “My Israeli friends laugh, but I think the future must involve the two state solution. In the future in Gaza, there must be some other force other than the Israeli military. If Israel’s military will fight forever, I don’t think Israel wants that. Hamas does want that.”
“There needs to be in the future some form of limited sovereignty,” noting many “don’t want to talk about that until they finish the campaign.” He added that in some past wars, “the US had campaigns without a clear end state,” which led to many problems. He suggested that in Gaza, “The vision would not necessarily envision a continuous sustained occupation on the ground, though lots of people disagree. But unless they are willing to fight forever, with the trickle of casualties every day and the loss of Gazan lives, they need to find a way forward
On Tuesday, February 11, Keren Kayemeth LeIsrael – Jewish National Fund (KKL-JNF) will dedicate the Swords of Iron Forest together with bereaved families who have lost their loved ones during the war, since October 7, 2023. This forest will serve as a living tribute to fallen civilians and IDF personnel. The dedication will take place two days before Tu Bishvat, the Jewish “New Year” for Trees.
A Forest of Memory and Renewal
“We are planting the future, renewing the forest, and breathing fresh air into the region,” says Daniel Ben-David, KKL-JNF‘s Western Negev Director. “In a place where life was cut short, we will plant new roots and create a forest of memory and renewal.”
Ben-David emphasized that the Swords of Iron Forest is not just another project; it is a testament to resilience, renewal, and the unwavering spirit of the Gaza Envelope’s residents, who have endured unimaginable hardship. This forest will symbolize hope, remembrance, and the promise of new beginnings.
>> Honor Their Memory – Plant a Tree of Remembrance
The site of the Nova Music Festival massacre, recently restored and upgraded by KKL-JNF, now welcomes 5,000 visitors daily. Given the overwhelming response, KKL-JNF expects even greater numbers to visit the new Swords of Iron Forest each year.
Last Tu Bishvat, KKL-JNF held a moving tree-planting ceremony at the Nova Festival site, where families of victims and survivors planted new life in the soil. Now, just a short distance away, the Swords of Iron Forest will take root as part of the vast 11,000-dunam Be’eri Forest, originally planted in the 1950s and 1960s. For over 12 years, and especially on October 7, this region has suffered severe destruction from ongoing rocket fire, incendiary balloons, and terror attacks from Gaza.
“For years, we have been restoring scorched land, rehabilitating wounded trees, and developing nature sites to improve the quality of life for residents,” says Ben-David. “We have built bike paths, hiking trails, and recreation areas.The Swords of Iron Forest is not just about trees – it is about resilience, remembrance, and looking ahead to the future.”
In addition to the tree-planting activities in memory of those who fell during the war, KKL-JNF is also engaged in restoration efforts in Israel’s northern forests. This week, it will hold a large and unique planting event in Biriya Forest, with the participation of hundreds of people, including local municipality leaders from the border communities, senior commanders of the IDF Northern Command, soldiers, local school students, and pre-military academy cadets.
A Living Tribute: The Tree-Planting Ceremony
Over 10,000 participants are expected to attend the unique and meaningful event on February 11, planting 2,000 trees in memory of their loved ones – creating a lasting tribute and legacy for those they have lost.
The dedication of the Swords of Iron Forest is led by KKL-JNF under the leadership of its Chairwoman, Ifat Ovadia-Luski, with the participation of Bituach Leumi and the Defense Ministry.
>> Forever Growing, Forever Remembered. Plant a Tree.
This article was written in cooperation with KKL-JNF.
After Trump took office as US President, reports were published that the new administration is demanding the deportation of the terrorist Ahlam Tamimi, who was responsible for the attack of the Sbarro restaurant, from Jordanian territory. Tamimi was released in the Gilad Shalit deal in 2011 after being sentenced to 16 life sentences.
In 2017, the US Department of Justice published a criminal complaint and issued an arrest warrant against al-Tamimi. The FBI added her to the top of its most wanted list and offered a cash reward for her extradition and prosecution.
Attorney Nitsana Darshan-Leitner, who represents the family of Channa Nachenberg, an American citizen who was critically injured in the attack at the Sbarro restaurant, is now revealing the actions taken behind the scenes, and that she was even called to an emergency meeting with the US Department of Justice’s counterterrorism task force.
The meeting was at the King David Hotel and attended by U.S. federal prosecutors and the FBI. At the meeting the American officials revealed that they were making public an indictment of Hamas terrorist Ahlam al-Tamimi who had assisted in the bombing of Sbarros.Al-Tamimi had been released from an Israeli prison during a prisoner release in exchange for Israeli soldier Gilad Shalit and was living in Jordan. Al-Tamimi hosted a popular radio talk show where she regularly boasted about her membership in Hamas and the bombing she was involved in in Jerusalem.
Although the U.S. had demanded that Jordan extradite the freed terrorist responsible for the murder of 2 U.S. citizens and the maiming of many others such as Nachenberg, the Hashemite Kingdom refused. Jordan claimed there was no extradition treaty between Amaan and Washington.
Now as a prerequisite to meeting with President Trump the U.S. has demanded that King Hussein either deport the terrorist to a third country or extradite her to the U.S.
According to attorney Darshan-Leitner: “We have been waiting since the terrorist’s release in 2011 for the Americans to really demand her extradition. We were hopeful that this unrepentant terrorist murderer who has much Israeli and American blood on her hands, will finally be locked up, but this time with no chance of freedom. It’s outrageous that she was released by Israel and was allowed to live a life of comfort and freedom in Jordan. God willing she’ll finally face a real punishment for her Jew hatred and the lives she destroyed.”
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told Egypt’s foreign minister on Tuesday it was important to ensure Hamas terrorists can never govern Gaza again, the State Department said, with their call coming after President Donald Trump suggested Egypt and Jordan should take more Palestinians.
Trump on Saturday floated a plan to “clean out” Gaza, where Israel’s war has killed tens of thousands and caused a humanitarian crisis, in comments that echoed long-standing Palestinian fears of being permanently driven from their homes.
The suggestion by Trump was not mentioned in the US State Department statement released on Tuesday after the call between Rubio and Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty.
Jordan and Egypt had pushed back over the weekend after Trump’s comments that they should take in Palestinians from Gaza. Asked if this was a temporary or long-term solution, Trump had said: “Could be either.”“He (Rubio) also reinforced the importance of holding Hamas accountable,” the State Department said after Tuesday’s call.
“The Secretary reiterated the importance of close cooperation to advance post-conflict planning to ensure Hamas can never govern Gaza or threaten Israel again.”
Context
Rubio held a call a day earlier with Jordan’s King Abdullah, and the US statement after that call, too, did not mention Trump’s remarks on Palestinian displacement.
The latest bloodshed in the decades-old Israeli-Palestinian conflict was triggered on Oct. 7, 2023, when Palestinian Hamas terrorists attacked Israel, killing 1,200 and taking about 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
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