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Forest carbon storage has declined across much of the Western U.S., likely due to drought and fire

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Forest carbon storage has declined across much of the Western U.S., likely due to drought and fire


Forests have been embraced as a natural climate solution, due to their ability to soak up carbon dioxide from the atmosphere as they grow, locking it up in their trunks, branches, leaves, and roots. But a new study confirms widespread doubts about the potential for most forests in the Western US to help curb climate change.

Published in Earth’s Future, the paper analyzed trends in carbon storage across the American West from 2005 to 2019. Led by Jazlynn Hall, a forest and landscape ecologist at Cary Institute of Ecosystem Studies, the team found that throughout most of the region, climate change and fires may be causing forests to store less carbon, not more.

“There’s a lot of momentum to use forests as natural climate solutions,” said Hall. “Many climate mitigation pathways rely in part on additional forest carbon storage to keep warming below 1.5 degrees C this century. We wanted to provide a baseline for how much carbon is currently stored in Western forests, how it’s changing, and how disturbances like fire and drought pose a threat to climate mitigation targets.”

The authors warn that many Western forests could see a rapid acceleration of carbon loss in the coming years or decades. “These challenges have the potential to compromise carbon storage capacity and undermine our ability to mitigate climate change,” Hall cautions.

By providing an unprecedented view of threats at landscape and regional levels, Hall and colleagues provide a framework that could help forest managers adapt site-specific strategies to strengthen forest resilience. They also identify the remaining areas with the lowest risk and highest potential to store carbon, such as the Pacific Northwest.

A new way to track forest carbon storage

Using survey data collected by the US Forest Service, Hall and colleagues estimated how much carbon was stored in living and dead trees in 19 ecoregions across the West. These ecoregions correspond to the diverse climatic and ecological areas ranging from the hot and dry Southwest to the wet and cool Pacific Northwest.

Forest Service data enabled the team to derive trends in carbon storage between 2005 and 2019. Machine learning was used to understand which factors — including human activities, wildfire, topography, and climate — were most likely driving those trends.

“Our study develops new methods to carefully estimate forest-carbon storage at a regional level, track it over time, and diagnose the causes of changes over time,” said co-author Park Williams, a hydroclimatologist at UCLA. He expects the methods will be useful in monitoring carbon storage levels going forward, as well as assessing the carbon impacts of management efforts such as forest thinning and prescribed burning.

Senior author Winslow Hansen, a forest ecologist at Cary Institute, said one of the study’s strengths is that it covers a broad geographic area at high resolution, making it possible to guide forest stewardship and climate solution projects at both the local and regional levels.

Climate solution, or carbon source?

The study revealed that carbon stored in living trees declined across much of the Western US between 2005 and 2019. Dead carbon — the carbon stored in dead trees and woody debris — increased. Standing dead trees and fallen logs do not provide long-term carbon storage, instead releasing it back into the atmosphere through decomposition or combustion in forest fires.

After analyzing the data, a machine learning algorithm identified climate and fire as the major potential drivers of these disturbing carbon trends. Climate (here measured as precipitation, temperature, and air moisture) was the most important driver of live carbon trends for eight of 19 ecoregions, and the second most important driver for nearly all the other ecoregions. Fire was the first or second most important driver in two-thirds of the ecoregions surveyed.

Also concerning is the fact that current carbon storage levels in many western forests are likely artificially high, due to the fire suppression practices of recent centuries. These practices have made fuels more dense in forests, contributing to recent record-breaking fires.

“Dry forests in the Western US may be acutely vulnerable to carbon loss without strong and immediate investment in proactive forest management [such as thinning and prescribed burning],” the scientists write.

The study also reveals different trends and drivers at the regional, ecoregional, and even local levels (see map below). Bucking the declining carbon trend, the Pacific Northwest contained some of the only ecoregions where carbon storage increased during the study period.

“That was the outlier,” Hall explained. “It offers a glimmer of hope that we can change things, especially in human-dominated areas. The Pacific Northwest has seen large-scale efforts to reduce harvesting in old-growth forests and expand protected lands. So, even if some of the regrowth may be on tree farms and destined to be harvested later, some of the regrowth may be permanent.”

A harbinger of the future

When the researchers began the study, data was only available up until 2019. As a result, the analysis did not include the record-shattering wildfire years of 2020 and 2021. The team plans to re-run the analysis when newer data is made public.

“It’s likely that the decline in live carbon that we calculated has already become more pronounced,” said Hall.

Can western forests still serve as a viable climate solution?

“I don’t think we can rely on increasing carbon storage in Western US forests,” said Hansen. With stored carbon already on the decline, followed by the devastating fire seasons of 2020 and 2021, he suspects these ecosystems may have reached a tipping point.

However, he added, “I do think we can get to a place where we increase the stability of carbon in western dry forests with mechanical thinning and prescribed burning, but at a lower carbon carrying capacity.”

Toward a more strategic and targeted approach

Hansen is leading a large research program called the Western Fire and Forest Resilience Collaborative, to inform new ways to live sustainably with fire. He says the Collaborative will use the baseline established in this study to track how forest carbon is changing now and over the next five to 10 years. “We will also compare our computer simulations of future trajectories to this baseline,” he said, “to understand how increasing fire and drought may alter forest carbon decades into the future.”

The study’s baseline will also help to track future progress toward climate-mitigation targets, and inform forest management strategies tailored to local conditions.

“This information could serve as the foundation for forest management strategies to maximize carbon storage where we can,” said Hansen, “and to avoid catastrophic emissions of carbon elsewhere.”

A contribution of the Western Fire and Forest Resilience Collaborative, this study was made possible, in part, by support from the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation (GBMF11974), Environmental Defense Fund, Three Cairns Group, the National Science Foundation (2003205 and 2216855), the US Department of Energy (DE-SC0022302), the USDA Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Research Station, and the Aldo Leopold Wilderness Research Institute. Findings and conclusions are those of the authors and should not be construed to represent any official USDA or US government determination or policy.



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Early dark energy could resolve cosmology’s two biggest puzzles

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Forest carbon storage has declined across much of the Western U.S., likely due to drought and fire


A new study by MIT physicists proposes that a mysterious force known as early dark energy could solve two of the biggest puzzles in cosmology and fill in some major gaps in our understanding of how the early universe evolved.

One puzzle in question is the “Hubble tension,” which refers to a mismatch in measurements of how fast the universe is expanding. The other involves observations of numerous early, bright galaxies that existed at a time when the early universe should have been much less populated.

Now, the MIT team has found that both puzzles could be resolved if the early universe had one extra, fleeting ingredient: early dark energy. Dark energy is an unknown form of energy that physicists suspect is driving the expansion of the universe today. Early dark energy is a similar, hypothetical phenomenon that may have made only a brief appearance, influencing the expansion of the universe in its first moments before disappearing entirely.

Some physicists have suspected that early dark energy could be the key to solving the Hubble tension, as the mysterious force could accelerate the early expansion of the universe by an amount that would resolve the measurement mismatch.

The MIT researchers have now found that early dark energy could also explain the baffling number of bright galaxies that astronomers have observed in the early universe. In their new study, reported in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, the team modeled the formation of galaxies in the universe’s first few hundred million years. When they incorporated a dark energy component only in that earliest sliver of time, they found the number of galaxies that arose from the primordial environment bloomed to fit astronomers’ observations.

You have these two looming open-ended puzzles,” says study co-author Rohan Naidu, a postdoc in MIT’s Kavli Institute for Astrophysics and Space Research. “We find that in fact, early dark energy is a very elegant and sparse solution to two of the most pressing problems in cosmology.”

The study’s co-authors include lead author and Kavli postdoc Xuejian (Jacob) Shen, and MIT professor of physics Mark Vogelsberger, along with Michael Boylan-Kolchin at the University of Texas at Austin, and Sandro Tacchella at the University of Cambridge.

Big city lights

Based on standard cosmological and galaxy formation models, the universe should have taken its time spinning up the first galaxies. It would have taken billions of years for primordial gas to coalesce into galaxies as large and bright as the Milky Way.

But in 2023, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) made a startling observation. With an ability to peer farther back in time than any observatory to date, the telescope uncovered a surprising number of bright galaxies as large as the modern Milky Way within the first 500 million years, when the universe was just 3 percent of its current age.

“The bright galaxies that JWST saw would be like seeing a clustering of lights around big cities, whereas theory predicts something like the light around more rural settings like Yellowstone National Park,” Shen says. “And we don’t expect that clustering of light so early on.”

For physicists, the observations imply that there is either something fundamentally wrong with the physics underlying the models or a missing ingredient in the early universe that scientists have not accounted for. The MIT team explored the possibility of the latter, and whether the missing ingredient might be early dark energy.

Physicists have proposed that early dark energy is a sort of antigravitational force that is turned on only at very early times. This force would counteract gravity’s inward pull and accelerate the early expansion of the universe, in a way that would resolve the mismatch in measurements. Early dark energy, therefore, is considered the most likely solution to the Hubble tension.

Galaxy skeleton

The MIT team explored whether early dark energy could also be the key to explaining the unexpected population of large, bright galaxies detected by JWST. In their new study, the physicists considered how early dark energy might affect the early structure of the universe that gave rise to the first galaxies. They focused on the formation of dark matter halos — regions of space where gravity happens to be stronger, and where matter begins to accumulate.

“We believe that dark matter halos are the invisible skeleton of the universe,” Shen explains. “Dark matter structures form first, and then galaxies form within these structures. So, we expect the number of bright galaxies should be proportional to the number of big dark matter halos.”

The team developed an empirical framework for early galaxy formation, which predicts the number, luminosity, and size of galaxies that should form in the early universe, given some measures of “cosmological parameters.” Cosmological parameters are the basic ingredients, or mathematical terms, that describe the evolution of the universe.

Physicists have determined that there are at least six main cosmological parameters, one of which is the Hubble constant — a term that describes the universe’s rate of expansion. Other parameters describe density fluctuations in the primordial soup, immediately after the Big Bang, from which dark matter halos eventually form.

The MIT team reasoned that if early dark energy affects the universe’s early expansion rate, in a way that resolves the Hubble tension, then it could affect the balance of the other cosmological parameters, in a way that might increase the number of bright galaxies that appear at early times. To test their theory, they incorporated a model of early dark energy (the same one that happens to resolve the Hubble tension) into an empirical galaxy formation framework to see how the earliest dark matter structures evolve and give rise to the first galaxies.

“What we show is, the skeletal structure of the early universe is altered in a subtle way where the amplitude of fluctuations goes up, and you get bigger halos, and brighter galaxies that are in place at earlier times, more so than in our more vanilla models,” Naidu says. “It means things were more abundant, and more clustered in the early universe.”

“A priori, I would not have expected the abundance of JWST’s early bright galaxies to have anything to do with early dark energy, but their observation that EDE pushes cosmological parameters in a direction that boosts the early-galaxy abundance is interesting,” says Marc Kamionkowski, professor of theoretical physics at Johns Hopkins University, who was not involved with the study. “I think more work will need to be done to establish a link between early galaxies and EDE, but regardless of how things turn out, it’s a clever — and hopefully ultimately fruitful — thing to try.”

We demonstrated the potential of early dark energy as a unified solution to the two major issues faced by cosmology. This might be an evidence for its existence if the observational findings of JWST get further consolidated,” Vogelsberger concludes. “In the future, we can incorporate this into large cosmological simulations to see what detailed predictions we get.”

This research was supported, in part, by NASA and the National Science Foundation.



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Plant-derived secondary organic aerosols can act as mediators of plant-plant interactions

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Forest carbon storage has declined across much of the Western U.S., likely due to drought and fire


A new study published in Science reveals that plant-derived secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) can act as mediators of plant-plant interactions. This research was conducted through the cooperation of chemical ecologists, plant ecophysiologists and atmospheric physicists at the University of Eastern Finland.

It is well known that plants release volatile organic compounds (VOCs) into the atmosphere when damaged by herbivores. These VOCs play a crucial role in plant-plant interactions, whereby undamaged plants may detect warning signals from their damaged neighbours and prepare their defences. “Reactive plant VOCs undergo oxidative chemical reactions, resulting in the formation of secondary organic aerosols (SOAs). We wondered whether the ecological functions mediated by VOCs persist after they are oxidated to form SOAs,” said Dr. Hao Yu, formerly a PhD student at UEF, but now at the University of Bern.

The study showed that Scots pine seedlings, when damaged by large pine weevils, release VOCs that activate defences in nearby plants of the same species. Interestingly, the biological activity persisted after VOCs were oxidized to form SOAs. The results indicated that the elemental composition and quantity of SOAs likely determines their biological functions.

“A key novelty of the study is the finding that plants adopt subtly different defence strategies when receiving signals as VOCs or as SOAs, yet they exhibit similar degrees of resistance to herbivore feeding,” said Professor James Blande, head of the Environmental Ecology Research Group. This observation opens up the possibility that plants have sophisticated sensing systems that enable them to tailor their defences to information derived from different types of chemical cue.

“Considering the formation rate of SOAs from their precursor VOCs, their longer lifetime compared to VOCs, and the atmospheric air mass transport, we expect that the ecologically effective distance for interactions mediated by SOAs is longer than that for plant interactions mediated by VOCs,” said Professor Annele Virtanen, head of the Aerosol Physics Research Group. This could be interpreted as plants being able to detect cues representing close versus distant threats from herbivores.

The study is expected to open up a whole new complex research area to environmental ecologists and their collaborators, which could lead to new insights on the chemical cues structuring interactions between plants.



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Folded or cut, this lithium-sulfur battery keeps going

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Forest carbon storage has declined across much of the Western U.S., likely due to drought and fire


Most rechargeable batteries that power portable devices, such as toys, handheld vacuums and e-bikes, use lithium-ion technology. But these batteries can have short lifetimes and may catch fire when damaged. To address stability and safety issues, researchers reporting in ACS Energy Letters have designed a lithium-sulfur (Li-S) battery that features an improved iron sulfide cathode. One prototype remains highly stable over 300 charge-discharge cycles, and another provides power even after being folded or cut.

Sulfur has been suggested as a material for lithium-ion batteries because of its low cost and potential to hold more energy than lithium-metal oxides and other materials used in traditional ion-based versions. To make Li-S batteries stable at high temperatures, researchers have previously proposed using a carbonate-based electrolyte to separate the two electrodes (an iron sulfide cathode and a lithium metal-containing anode). However, as the sulfide in the cathode dissolves into the electrolyte, it forms an impenetrable precipitate, causing the cell to quickly lose capacity. Liping Wang and colleagues wondered if they could add a layer between the cathode and electrolyte to reduce this corrosion without reducing functionality and rechargeability.

The team coated iron sulfide cathodes in different polymers and found in initial electrochemical performance tests that polyacrylic acid (PAA) performed best, retaining the electrode’s discharge capacity after 300 charge-discharge cycles. Next, the researchers incorporated a PAA-coated iron sulfide cathode into a prototype battery design, which also included a carbonate-based electrolyte, a lithium metal foil as an ion source, and a graphite-based anode. They produced and then tested both pouch cell and coin cell battery prototypes.

After more than 100 charge-discharge cycles, Wang and colleagues observed no substantial capacity decay in the pouch cell. Additional experiments showed that the pouch cell still worked after being folded and cut in half. The coin cell retained 72% of its capacity after 300 charge-discharge cycles. They next applied the polymer coating to cathodes made from other metals, creating lithium-molybdenum and lithium-vanadium batteries. These cells also had stable capacity over 300 charge-discharge cycles. Overall, the results indicate that coated cathodes could produce not only safer Li-S batteries with long lifespans, but also efficient batteries with other metal sulfides, according to Wang’s team.

The authors acknowledge funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China; the Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan, China; and the Beijing National Laboratory for Condensed Matter Physics.



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