Indian Defense
From India To China, The Taliban’s Return Leaves Afghanistan’s Neighbours Scrambling To Adjust
The Taliban’s swift return to power after two decades has left Afghanistan’s neighbours scrambling to figure out how to adjust to a shifting geopolitical outlook, experts told CNBC
As U.S. military presence wound down, the Taliban made rapid battlefield advances before entering Afghan capital Kabul on Sunday.
Eurasia Group analysts said in a note last week that neighbouring countries are worried about political instability, likely refugee inflows and the prospect of Afghanistan becoming a haven for terrorist activities again.
a group of people standing around a plane: Afghan people sit as they wait to leave the Kabul airport in Kabul on August 16, 2021, after a stunningly swift end to Afghanistan’s 20-year war, as thousands of people mobbed the city’s airport trying to flee the group’s feared hardline brand of Islamist rule.
The Taliban’s swift return to power after two decades has left Afghanistan’s neighbours scrambling to figure out how to adjust to a shifting geopolitical outlook, experts told CNBC.
President Joe Biden in April ordered the Pentagon to withdraw U.S. troops from Afghanistan by Sept. 11, effectively ending America’s longest war. As U.S. military presence wound down, the Taliban made rapid battlefield advances despite being outnumbered by the Afghan military. In recent weeks, the group seized major cities and provincial capitals before entering capital Kabul on Sunday and taking control of the presidential palace.
“Much is in geopolitical flux right now, as Afghanistan’s neighbours figure out how to adjust to an emerging Taliban regime,” Michael Kugelman, deputy director of the Asia program at the Woodrow Wilson Centre, told CNBC.
Political risk consultancy Eurasia Group said in a note last week that neighbouring countries are worried about political instability, likely refugee inflows and the prospect of Afghanistan again becoming a haven for terrorist activities.
Pakistan
Pakistan held a significant amount of leverage and influence over the Taliban in the past, according to Eurasia Group analysts. It was one of the few countries that recognized the group as a legitimate government when they were last in power.
Pakistan has also long been accused of covertly aiding the Taliban in Afghanistan — a charge that the country denies.
The analysts said, however, Islamabad’s influence has waned over the years and Pakistan would likely be on guard over potential violence on its borders. Reports said the Taliban’s return in Afghanistan could potentially embolden terror groups in Pakistan, including the Pakistani Taliban, which could affect the country’s security.
“More broadly, Pakistan will see the rise of the Taliban as a major setback for its arch-rival India, and thus a positive outcome,” the Eurasia Group analysts said.
Pakistan’s foreign minister Shah Mahmood Qureshi said on Twitter that the country is working to evacuate diplomats and other personnel from Afghanistan. He also called on the international community to “remain engaged and involved in Afghanistan in a constructive manner.”
India
India has had a stable relationship with the civilian Afghan government over the last two decades, providing the latter with development assistance. The shift in power has left New Delhi in a “tough strategic state,” Wilson Centre’s Kugelman explained.
“Not only has the Taliban, traditionally an anti-India group, seized power, but India’s Chinese and Pakistani rivals are now poised to deepen their footprints in Afghanistan,” he said.
Eurasia Group analysts pointed out that India has made efforts to engage with the Taliban but has effectively shuttered most of its diplomatic operations in Afghanistan.
“India is especially worried because the last time the Taliban were in power, they sheltered pro-Pakistani militants,” the analysts said. New Delhi is concerned that “an emboldened Pakistan will use this as an opportunity to hit India; doing so would raise the potential of a broader India-Pakistan conflict.”
India’s foreign ministry in a statement said it has advised Indian nationals in Afghanistan to immediately return to India. It also said Tuesday that the ambassador to Kabul and his Indian staff will return to India promptly.
China
While countries like the U.S., U.K. and India have been rushing to evacuate diplomats and citizens from Afghanistan, China decided to keep its embassy in Kabul open. But, it is advising Chinese citizens to stay indoors.
Chinese foreign ministry spokesperson Hua Chunying said Beijing expects a smooth transfer of power and called for crime and terrorism to be contained.
Kugelman said that China will be in a strong position to seek the Taliban’s cooperation for its two main interests in Afghanistan: a secure environment for Chinese infrastructure projects, and the isolation of Uyghur militants.
Beijing has been widely accused of detaining more than 1 million Uyghur Muslims in re-education camps in the north-western region of Xinjiang, conducting invasive surveillance on people there and using forced labour. China has repeatedly denied mistreatment of the ethnic minority and has characterized its efforts in Xinjiang as “counterterrorism and de-radicalization.”
But some analysts allege the treatment of Muslim minorities in China has strengthened the hand of Uyghur militants, who view China as an oppressor. Militants have sought a haven in the Afghanistan-Pakistan border regions for years, and China has reportedly attempted to negotiate with local parties in both countries to deprive them of that refuge.
Russia
Like China, Russia kept its embassy in Kabul open, but will reportedly move some of its personnel.
Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov reportedly said Tuesday that Russia is in no hurry to recognize the Taliban as legitimate authorities in Afghanistan and called for the formation of an inclusive government. Both China and Russia still have reasons to worry about the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan.
Iran
The situation in Afghanistan will demand a high level of attention from Iran, according to Eurasia Group.
“Iran’s aim will be to stem the flood of refugees and drugs and prevent harm to the Hazaras in Afghanistan,” the analysts said.
The Hazaras, who are mostly Shiite Muslims, are the third-largest ethnic group in mostly Sunni Afghanistan. In the past, the Taliban singled them out for persecution.
The Iranian state “will probably mobilize more armed forces to the border and prepare for a number of contingencies, all of which may distract Tehran from the Arab world in the short term,” Eurasia Group analysts added.
Indian Defense
INS Arihant’s Nuke-Capable K-4 Submarine-Launched Ballistic Missile ‘Ready To Roll’
The solid-fuelled K-4 missile is being developed by DRDO to arm the country’s nuclear-powered submarines in the shape of INS Arihant and its under-development sister vessels. INS Arihant, which became fully operational in November 2018 to complete India’s nuclear triad, is currently armed with the much shorter K-15 missiles with a 750 km range.
“The K-4 is now virtually ready for its serial production to kick-off. The two tests have demonstrated its capability to emerge straight from underwater and undertake its parabolic trajectory,” said a source.
India has the land-based Agni missiles, with the over 5,000-km Agni-V inter-continental ballistic missile now in the process of being inducted, and fighter jets jury-rigged to deliver nuclear weapons. But INS Arihant gives the country’s deterrence posture much more credibility because nuclear-powered submarines armed with nuclear-tipped missiles are considered the most secure, survivable and potent platforms for retaliatory strikes.
Once the K-4 missiles are inducted, they will help India narrow the gap with countries like the US, Russia and China, which have over 5,000-km range SLBMs. The K-4 missiles are to be followed by the K-5 and K-6 missiles in the 5,000-6,000 km range class.
The 6,000-ton INS Arihant, which is propelled by an 83 MW pressurised light-water reactor at its core, in turn, is to be followed by INS Arighat, which was launched in 2017. The next generation of nuclear submarines, currently called S-4 and S-4*, will be much larger in size.
Indian Defense
After Upgradation, Sukhoi Su-30MKI Indigenisation To Reach 78%
India has received clearance to upgrade 84 Sukhoi Su-30MKI fighter jets, which will result in 78% indigenization after the upgrade
In a significant step towards bolstering its military might with indigenously developed technology, India is poised to witness its Russian-origin Sukhoi Su-30MKI fighter jets evolve into a domestic platform. Speaking at a recent lecture.
The upgrade program is being led by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) in partnership with the Indian Air Force and other partners. The upgrade is expected to cost US$7.5 billion.
This initiative is a part of a larger effort by the Indian Air Force to modernize its ageing fleet. Air Chief Marshal Chaudhari asserted the critical role of an offensive air force as demonstrated in current global conflicts and emphasized India’s move towards an indigenized arsenal. To this end, the IAF has been proactive, from upgrading its Mirage 2000 to enhancing its MiG-29 fleet.
In summary, the IAF’s commitment to updating their combat forces with the latest technology, including shifting to fifth-generation fighter jets, ensures operational preparedness and a strong deterrence capability. The gradual indigenization of its air fleet marks a pivotal shift in India’s defence landscape, reducing dependency on foreign imports and fostering technological sovereignty.
Indian Defense
Akash Weapon System Exports For The Armenian Armed Forces Gathers Pace
According to unconfirmed reports, Armenia is a top contender for an export order for Akash SAM system manufactured by Bharat Dynamics Limited (BDL).
The Akash export version will also be slightly different from the one inducted by the armed forces. The 100-km range air-to-air Astra missiles, now entering production after successful trials from Sukhoi-30MKI fighters, also have “good export potential”, said sources.
Akash is a “tried, tested and successfully inducted systems”. Indian armed forces have ordered Akash systems worth Rs 24,000 crore over the years, and MoD inked a contract in Mar 2023 of over Rs 9,100 crores for improved Akash Weapon System
BDL is a government enterprise under the Ministry of Defence that was established in 1970. BDL manufactures surface-to-air missiles and delivers them to the Indian Army. BDL also offers its products for export.
Akash Weapon System
The AWS is a Short Range Surface to Air Missile (SRSAM) Air Defence System, indigenously designed and developed by Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO). In order to meet aerial threats, two additional Regiments of AWS with Upgradation are being procured for Indian Army for the Northern borders. Improved AWS has Seeker Technology, Reduced Foot Print, 360° Engagement Capability and improved environmental parameters.
The project will give a boost to the Indian missile manufacturing industry in particular and the indigenous defence manufacturing ecosystem as a whole. The project has overall indigenous content of 82% which will be increased to 93% by 2026-27.
The induction of the improved AWS into the Indian Army will increase India’s self-reliance in Short Range Missile capability. This project will play a role in boosting the overall economy by avoiding outgo of precious foreign exchange to other countries, increasing employment avenues in India and encouraging Indian MSMEs through components manufacturing. Around 60% of the project cost will be awarded to the private industry, including MSMEs, in maintaining the supply chain of the weapon system, thereby creating large scale of direct and indirect employment.
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