Solar Energy

Tripling renewable energy by 2030 ‘ambitious but doable’

Published

1 year ago

November 30, 2023

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Tripling renewable energy by 2030 ‘ambitious but doable’

By Catherine HOURS

Paris (AFP) Nov 30, 2023

Host United Arab Emirates wants nearly 200 nations attending the COP28 climate summit starting Thursday to commit to tripling installed renewable energy capacity worldwide by 2030, a goal experts say is “ambitious but achievable”.

If the UN forum sets that target in stone, it could become a key marker of COP28’s success, especially if coupled with a pledge to drawn down fossil fuel use.

– Why triple renewable energy? –

In September, the G20 — accounting for 80 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions — broke new ground in endorsing the goal of tripling renewable energy capacity by the end of the decade.

The club of major economies remained silent, however, on the need to reduce fossil fuel use, which will also be on the table during the two-week meeting in Dubai.

For Dave Jones, an expert with think tank Ember, the G20’s statement has helped push renewables back to centre stage.

“We were too busy worrying about hydrogen and carbon capture,” he told AFP. “Those technologies are going to help solve the problem, but they are not going to be the driving force behind the solution.”

All credible pathways for achieving global carbon neutrality by mid-century depend on massively scaling up wind, solar, hydroelectric and other renewable energies, such as biomass.

This is “the single most important lever” for reducing carbon pollution from burning fossil fuels, and capping warming under the Paris Agreement threshold of 1.5 degrees Celsius compared with the pre-industrial period, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has said.

“Achieving net zero emissions from the energy sector by 2050 rests on the world’s ability to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030,” the intergovernmental body said in a recent report.

Doing so would avoid some seven billion tonnes of CO2 emissions over the next seven years, putting a big dent in the 37 billion tonnes that the world currently emits every year.

Rapid expansion of renewables would cover skyrocketing demand for electricity linked to transport, heating and especially air conditioning.

It would also cut in half the amount of electricity generated by coal, the number one source of CO2.

– How much energy? –

“Concretely, we’d need to increase from 3,600 gigawatts (GW) from renewables at the end of 2022 to 11,000 GW in 2030,” explained Jones.

That would mean adding 1,500 GW of new installed capacity every year by 2030, up from 300 GW in 2022 and an estimated 500 GW in this year.

Progress is visible. Between 2015 and 2022, renewable capacity increased 11 percent per year, on average.

Against a backdrop of soaring oil prices and energy insecurity linked to the war in Ukraine, the IEA forecasts unprecedented growth of about 30 percent in 2023.

China could reach its 2030 target of 1,200 GW capacity from photovoltaics five years early. A surge in the supply of components — mostly from China — could help ensure an additional 1,000 GW of solar capacity by the end of next year, Jones said.

Wind power, however, has hit obstacles in the form of rising costs and interest rates.

Not all countries will have to make the same efforts to slash emissions. Of 57 nations analysed, more than half were on track to meet or exceed their 2030 targets, the Ember analysis points out.

But other large emitters such as Australia, Japan, South Korea and United Arab Emirates still have lots of room for improvement.

– How can this be achieved? –

Last year, 1,000 GW of wind and solar power capacity in the pipeline failed to materialise due to underdeveloped electricity grids and obstacles to permitting, according to the Ren21 research network.

Another bottleneck is finance. Wind and solar are the cheapest way to generate energy and are quick to deploy, but require investment to get off the ground, particularly in emerging and developing countries.

And yet only two percent of energy transition investment between 2000 and 2020 went to Africa, where half the population still lacks electricity, according to the Renewable Energy Agency (Irena).

“We need four trillion dollars a year and we’re a long way from that,” said Ren21 director Rana Adib. “We know that the energy transition also means stopping new investment in fossil fuels”.

In 2022, hydrocarbons were subsidised twice as much as in 2021 to the tune of nearly $1.3 trillion in G20 countries alone, according to BloombergNEF.

This “could have financed 1,900 GW of solar power plants, or ten times the capacity installed by the G20 last year,” the energy think tanks calculated.

The consequence of this situation is clear, insisted Adib, with oil, gas and coal still accounting for more than 80 percent of the world’s final energy consumption, a rate that has not changed for years.

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Solar Energy

Vietnam ups wind, solar targets as energy demand soars

Published

2 days ago

April 20, 2025

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Vietnam ups wind, solar targets as energy demand soars

by AFP Staff Writers

Hanoi (AFP) April 17, 2025

Vietnam has dramatically increased its wind and solar targets as it looks to up its energy production by 2030 to meet soaring demand, according to a revised version of its national power plan.

The Southeast Asian country has committed to reaching net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 and the latest edition of its Power Development Plan 8 (PDP8), as it is known, maps out how it will reach those goals.

The manufacturing powerhouse has been heavily reliant on coal to meet its rapidly expanding energy needs. But now it wants to “strongly develop renewable energy sources”, according to the plan, which was published Wednesday on the government’s news portal.

With targets set at 73 gigawatts (GW) for solar and 38 GW for onshore wind energy by 2030 — and a significant increase to 296 GW and 230 GW by 2050 — the plan looks “really ambitious”, said Andri Prasetiyo, senior researcher at Senik Centre Asia.

The 2023 version of the PDP8 aimed for 12.8 GW for solar and 21 GW for wind by the end of the decade.

“I think this sends a clear message, Vietnam is positioning itself to maintain leadership in Southeast Asia’s clean energy transition, (even) taking a more prominent role in the region,” he told AFP.

Solar power grew rapidly in Vietnam until 2020 but its success hit a roadblock due to infrastructure limitations.

Prasetiyo said Vietnam’s new targets were “increasingly feasible”, although they far outstrip market projections of what the country can achieve.

– Coal, nuclear –

The latest version of the PDP8, which was approved this week, also re-emphasises the country’s 2023 pledge to end the use of coal by 2050.

Coal will represent nearly 17 percent of its energy mix by the end of the decade, down from a target of 20 percent set in 2023.

Meanwhile, solar will account for 31 percent of the country’s energy by 2030, while onshore wind will be 16 percent.

More than $136 billion will be needed if Vietnam is to get there, the document said.

Under the new plan, the country also aims to open its first nuclear power plant by 2035 at the latest.

It comes after Vietnam and Russia signed an agreement on nuclear energy in January, with Hanoi saying Russian nuclear giant Rosatom was “very interested” in cooperating on a project in central Ninh Thuan province.

Overall, as Vietnam targets an ambitious 10 percent economic growth rate by the end of the decade, it wants to raise its total installed capacity to a maximum of 236 GW by that date.

That’s up by more than 80 GW from the figure outlined in 2023.

Hanoi is also eager to avoid a repeat of the rolling blackouts and sudden power outages in summer 2023 that led to losses among manufacturers. They also prompted massive disruption for residents, as intensely hot weather and unprecedented drought strained energy supplies in northern Vietnam.

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Solar Energy

New system offers early warning of dust storms to protect solar power output

Published

6 days ago

April 16, 2025

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New system offers early warning of dust storms to protect solar power output

by Simon Mansfield

Sydney, Australia (SPX) Apr 10, 2025

A new predictive platform called iDust is poised to transform dust storm forecasting and improve solar energy output in dust-prone regions. Developed by researchers at the Chinese Academy of Sciences, iDust offers high-resolution, fast-turnaround dust forecasts that could help mitigate power losses across solar farms, particularly in arid zones.

The tool was created under the leadership of Dr. Chen Xi from the Institute of Atmospheric Physics and detailed in the Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems (JAMES).

“Dust storms not only block sunlight but also accumulate on solar panels, decreasing their power output.” said Chen, outlining the motivation behind the project. With China’s rapid expansion of solar installations in desert areas, the need for precise and timely dust forecasts has become increasingly urgent to avoid operational disruptions and revenue shortfalls.

Traditional systems like those from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) often lack the spatial resolution and processing speed needed for optimal solar planning. iDust addresses these limitations by embedding dust-related dynamics directly into its forecast engine. This allows the system to generate forecasts with 10-kilometer resolution-a fourfold improvement over previous models-while maintaining near-parity in computational load. Crucially, iDust can deliver 10-day forecasts within six hours of initial observations.

The effectiveness of iDust was put to the test on April 13, 2024, when it successfully tracked a severe dust storm over Bayannur in northern China. Such storms can distort solar energy projections by as much as 25% if unaccounted for, underscoring the value of integrating dust modeling into energy planning.

Designed for practical deployment, iDust aims to assist solar facility operators and grid managers in optimizing power production and reducing losses due to airborne particulates. As China pushes toward its carbon neutrality goals, innovations like iDust will be central to achieving sustainable energy reliability.

Researchers plan to expand the system for global application, allowing other countries with desert-based solar assets to benefit from enhanced dust forecasting.

Research Report:The Efficient Integration of Dust and Numerical Weather Prediction for Renewable Energy Applications

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Solar Energy

Solar park boom threatens Spain’s centuries-old olive trees

Published

6 days ago

April 15, 2025

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Solar park boom threatens Spain’s centuries-old olive trees

By Rosa SULLEIRO

Lopera, Spain (AFP) April 14, 2025

At his farm in southern Spain, Francisco Campos looked worriedly at a green sea of centuries-old olive trees that he fears will face the axe to make way for a proposed solar park.

“Cutting down olive trees to install solar panels is a crime,” the 64-year-old farmer told AFP in Lopera, a town of whitewashed buildings with 3,600 residents in the sunny southern region of Andalusia, Spain’s olive-growing heartland.

Spain is the world’s top producer of olive oil, but the fertile agricultural land long used by olive producers is now in high demand from power firms looking to install solar farms.

And with nearly 3,000 hours of sunshine per year, Andalusia is one of the Spanish regions with the highest number of solar panels as a renewables boom makes the country a European leader in green energy.

Renewable energy firms such as Greenalia and FRV Arroyadas have requested permission to build multiple solar farms near Lopera, which farmers say will affect up to 1,000 hectares (2,500 acres) of property.

The businesses negotiated agreements to lease the bulk of the land required for their projects but encountered significant opposition from hundreds of small landowners.

This prompted the regional government of Andalusia to announce it will expropriate some land needed for the plants, declaring them to be in “the public interest”.

“Is it in the public interest for them to take my land and give it to a company so that the company can profit? This has no benefit for us,” said Campos.

“Our way of life is going to be destroyed,” he added.

– ‘From our ancestors’ –

Campaigners predict that the eight solar projects planned for the area will require the removal of nearly 100,000 olive trees.

The regional government puts the figure significantly lower, at 13,000.

Local residents anticipated power companies would seek to install solar panels in the area, but they never imagined “they would come and take away your property,” said Rafael Alcala, a spokesman for a platform that represents the solar plants’ opponents.

In support of landowners impacted by the latest round of expropriations, dozens of farmers on tractors — some holding signs that read “We don’t want solar plants” — gathered on a recent morning outside Lopera.

“These lands come from our ancestors. What am I going to leave to my children now?” Maria Josefa Palomo, a 67-year-old pensioner, said at the protest.

Losing 500 hectares of olive groves would wipe out more than two million euros ($2.3 million) in annual revenues, according to local olive oil cooperative La Loperana.

Campaigners say 5,000 olive trees have already been uprooted from land belonging to a farmer in Lopera who signed an agreement with one of the firms behind a solar park. More could follow.

In an effort to stop the projects, opponents have filed lawsuits against the regional government and the companies involved.

– ‘Until the end’ –

Spain generated a record 56.8 percent of its electricity last year from renewable sources such as wind and solar, according to grid operator Red Electrica.

Leveraging on its sunny plains, windy hillsides and fast-flowing rivers, Spain intends to raise the share of renewable-generated electricity to 81 percent of the total by 2030 as part of efforts to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions.

The regional government has defended the renewables projects, saying less than one percent of the land they use in the region had to be expropriated from reluctant landowners.

Spanish solar industry group UNEF, which represents more than 800 companies, says the projects boost tax revenues in rural communities.

They generate “significant amounts” that can be used to improve public services, said UNEF head Jose Donoso.

Solar park opponents in Lopera disagree and vow to continue their fight.

“Until the end. Nobody is going to take what is ours away from us,” said Juan Cantera, a 28-year-old farmer.

“Olive oil is everything in Lopera”.

rs/ds/imm/gv/tym

RED ELECTRICA CORPORACION

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