world news
What will victory in Gaza mean for Israel?
The IDF invasion is progressing, and the military is starting to seriously “clean” even some deeper parts of northern Gaza of Hamas terrorists. This has left top IDF officials, if not euphoric, feeling that they have taken control of the war narrative.
But even if they are achieving their daily tactical objectives and even if they say their success is moving faster than they expected, it is extremely unclear how much fundamental progress has been made in toppling Hamas regarding many key parameters.
To date, about a week into the invasion and despite its many successes, the IDF is far from having killed or arrested the vast majority of Hamas’s forces. It also has not succeeded in even slowing, let alone eliminating, its rocket fire on either the Gaza border communities or the Tel Aviv area. In addition, the IDF – and the country – suffered a reeling blow this week when dozens of soldiers were killed in Gaza.
But let’s frame these challenges and setbacks against the IDF’s clear successes.What have the IDF’s clear successes been in Gaza?
After an initial horrific first day on October 7, the positive trajectory for the IDF versus Hamas has been clear.
Within days of October 7, 1,500 Hamas terrorists in Israel’s South were killed, and by the end of the first week, Hamas was cleared out of the South.
Israel then spent a couple of weeks hammering Hamas with unrelenting airstrikes.
About a week ago, the IDF started a slow-motion, incremental invasion of northern Gaza, with some smaller incursions also into other parts of Gaza.
At press time, the IDF had killed thousands of Hamas terrorists, including the 1,500 killed in the early days.
With large numbers of troops, the IDF has penetrated into Gaza neighborhoods that it had not entered in nearly 20 years, including the Shati refugee camp near the coast, the Zeitun neighborhood, and the al-Furqan neighborhood.
SO FAR, the mix of using armored personnel carriers in conjunction with artillery, tanks, drones, and aircraft is mostly succeeding in flushing out Hamas’s would-be ambushing forces without a significant loss of life to IDF forces.
Hamas and Islamic Jihad are estimated to have a fighting force of 15,000-50,000. Whatever “thousands killed” means, which the IDF has said it has achieved, that is nowhere near even the lower estimate of enemy forces in Gaza.
How much of Hamas’s forces must be killed to render it unable to maintain control of Gaza is hard to say, but it is difficult to see that happening if less than 60%-80% of its forces are not arrested or killed.
So how does the IDF achieve this, which it has not to date?
Some of this depends on where Hamas is hiding.
If a majority of its forces are in tunnels in the north, then once the IDF blankets the north with more troops and destroys or enters the vast network of tunnels (some estimate 1,300 for all of Gaza), it will find and arrest or kill most of Hamas.
But what if a majority of Hamas forces are hiding in Gaza’s dozens of hospitals? A recent UN estimate said that 117,000 Palestinians are taking refuge in Gaza’s many hospitals.
If only 10% of those “refugees” double as Hamas fighters who are temporarily fading into the civilian populace, how will the IDF be able to know when it encounters Hamas terrorists? And when will the IDF make the difficult decision to approach and take control of sensitive locations like the hospitals in question?
Of all of the hospitals, Shifa Hospital, which is in northern Gaza, is known as the most important because many top Hamas officials are said to hide there anytime war breaks out. When will the IDF take over Shifa, and will it use air power and artillery or go in with special forces?
As soon as the IDF does “take the plunge” to systematically take away tunnels as well as hospitals, mosques, and UN facilities, as hideout spots for Hamas, the terrorist group will drive up the cost in IDF deaths and Palestinian civilian deaths.
Israelis have not flinched all that much to date from losing a couple dozen soldiers in the war’s recent fighting, given that Hamas slaughtered over 1,000 civilians and killed around 1,400 Israelis total in the first day or so of the war.
But when the invasion starts going systematically into the areas where Hamas is hiding, and a couple dozen dead Israeli soldiers rises to over 100 – or reaches the 2014 IDF intelligence estimates of the cost in lives of an invasion being 500-1,000 IDF soldiers – will the Israeli public still maintain support?
Another possibility is that most Hamas forces fled to southern Gaza with the one million civilians who fled there from northern Gaza.
The IDF has activities in the south, but the invasion has not started there in a serious way.
If most Hamas terrorists are in the south, then until the IDF starts invading there in a serious way, the true fight will not have started (this despite approaching a month into the war).
WITH ALL of these questions in the air, a fundamental question for Israeli resilience and toleration of continuation of the war will be whether the IDF can reduce rocket fire substantially.
The IDF has excitedly announced that several top rocket commanders and anti-tank commanders had been killed and countless rocket crews had been bombed, but as of Wednesday, Hamas was still managing to fire at a steady pace both at the Gaza border communities and at Tel Aviv and other areas in the center of the country.
If Israeli soldier casualties go up and rockets continue without a quick end in sight, and without killing enough Hamas forces to bring an effective end to Hamas’s ability to control Gaza once the IDF leaves, support in Israel for a continued invasion of several months could falter.
Likewise, the longer the invasion continues, with all of the visual, public relations, and diplomatic problems it carries, the greater the pressure will be from the US and the EU for Jerusalem to halt the invasion – whether “the job” is finished or not.
The latest attack on the Jabalya refugee camp, which seems to have hit many civilians as well as many Hamas terrorists, or some similar future incident, is a case in point.
The US and EU will say that Israel did far more than ever before against Hamas, that they gave the Jewish state greater backing for this than usual, but that the cost in Palestinian civilian lives has gotten too high (it already dwarfs the number of Israeli civilians killed, even if the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry numbers are exaggerated), and that it is unclear whether the IDF can succeed in any reasonable amount of time to fully uproot Hamas in any scenario.
An interesting twist is whether simply killing top Hamas leaders Yahya Sinwar and Mohammed Deif would be enough to topple Hamas without cleaning out a majority of its forces. Chances are probably not. As powerful as that duo is, there were many Hamas leaders before them who were killed, and the terrorist group and other terrorist groups in Gaza have always made comebacks.
As long as the broader Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not resolved or someone ruling Gaza is powerful enough to maintain stability and avoid conflict with Israel, simply killing top leaders is unlikely to end the anti-Israel “resistance,” which is a decades-old ideology.
This also fuels the next question that we are not even close to: who will Israel try to hand control of Gaza over to?
The question is “try,” because no one may be willing to take control: whether the Palestinian Authority, the UN, a Western coalition, an Arab coalition, or a hybrid of the above. And anyone who dares to take control may fall to whatever Gaza resistance comes next.
In a small but more positive trend, Hezbollah is being somewhat pushed backward from Israel’s northern border, The Jerusalem Post understands.
Though the Lebanese terrorist group has and will still manage to fire off rockets and anti-tank missiles, constant preemptive strikes by IDF drones, aircraft, artillery, and tanks against Hezbollah terrorists approaching close to the border have sometimes forced the group to attack from slightly deeper in its territory.
While this is more of a tactical win than a strategic win, combined with the strategic picture of Israel succeeding at keeping Hezbollah from intervening with more of its war powers, it has freed up Israel’s hand in the south.
Whether that free hand will move fast enough and skillfully enough to end the Hamas threat after over 15 years remains the open question.•
The United States is deferring the removal of certain Lebanese citizens from the country, President Joe Biden said on Friday, citing humanitarian conditions in southern Lebanon amid tensions between Israel and Hezbollah.
The deferred designation, which lasts 18 months, allows Lebanese citizens to remain in the country with the right to work, according to a memorandum Biden sent to the Department of Homeland Security.
“Humanitarian conditions in southern Lebanon have significantly deteriorated due to tensions between Hezbollah and Israel,” Biden said in the memo.
“While I remain focused on de-escalating the situation and improving humanitarian conditions, many civilians remain in danger; therefore, I am directing the deferral of removal of certain Lebanese nationals who are present in the United States.”Increased attacks since Oct.7
Israel and Hezbollah have been trading fire since Hezbollah announced a “support front” with Palestinians shortly after its ally Hamas attacked southern Israeli border communities on Oct. 7, triggering Israel’s military assault in Gaza.
The fighting in Lebanon has killed more than 100 civilians and more than 300 Hezbollah fighters, according to a Reuters tally, and led to levels of destruction in Lebanese border towns and villages not seen since the 2006 Israel-Lebanon war.
On the Israeli side, 10 Israeli civilians, a foreign agricultural worker and 20 Israeli soldiers have been killed. Tens of thousands have been evacuated from both sides of the border.
Hezbollah is an Iran-backed terrorist group and the most powerful military and political force in Lebanon.
world news
Preparing for war: Haifa mayor describes city’s infrastructure changes tensions in North escalate
Haifa mayor Yona Yahav spoke this past Monday with Lior Rosenfeld on Radio North 104.5FM about the escalation of the war in the North and his entry into political office amidst the security situation.
Yahav began, “I cannot speak on behalf of the North as I don’t know exactly what’s happening there. No one updates me, as if we are not the largest and most important city in the North. Tomorrow, the Home Front Command is coming to see us for the first time, and we will see what they have to say. We are doing everything to ensure that the city itself and our residents are safe and know what to do in case, God forbid, missiles fall on us. They are more accurate than those in 2006.”
Yahav also discussed the city’s preparations for a war in the North.
“We are now changing the entire method of building public structures,” Yahav said. “We are preparing them for prolonged stays. The minimum will be four consecutive days in shelters and such buildings, which require preparation. For example, installing toilets, which we don’t have today, and we have given instructions to build them in places close to where new houses are being built. This has been fully understood, and developers have begun to understand that the talk about evacuation and reconstruction has undergone drastic changes in light of the security situation. For example, road width needs to be maintained for the sake of evacuating residents on these roads. These are things that were not considered until now and must now be taken into account.”
Yahav’s plans for the success of Haifa’s future
Yahav then discussed his appeal to the transportation minister to stop the Highway 23 Carmel Tunnels’ toll charge.
“We called on the transportation minister to stop the discrimination. Haifa and the North are always discriminated against compared to central Israel, and there’s no reason for this. There are huge tunnels dug in Jerusalem that do not cost residents any money to pass through. There’s no reason why the tunnels dug in Haifa should include a toll. I speak on behalf of Haifa residents, and we are preparing to petition if we do not receive an answer.”
Regarding his entry into his mayoral role about three months ago, Yahav said, “I found a completely ruined city. They destroyed the municipality, and it’s very difficult to move things around. I don’t understand how residents sat idly by and kept quiet. We are trying to go to government offices to fix relations, to get funds, to move projects to bring in fees – and we are doing all this in a short time.
“The ministers are acting openly and with the goodwill to help. I am now waiting for the money on the table. The casino building in Bat Galim will be a luxurious hotel on the Bat Galim seashore. This neighborhood will undergo a complete transformation and will be the most beautiful neighborhood in the country. It will also be the only neighborhood facing a recognized beach. We came to make a change, and we will succeed.”
In conclusion, he touched on the issue of wild boars: “You won’t be able to follow them because soon you won’t see them anymore.”
world news
‘Psychological operation’: Turkey condemns FM Katz social media post depicting toddler Erdogan
Turkey’s Foreign Affairs Ministry released a statement on Sunday condemning a social media post made by Foreign Minister Israel Katz, in which Katz presented Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan as a toddler on the lap of Iran’s Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Katz, in a Sunday post on X, wrote “Erdogan @RTErdogan finances and arms terrorist organizations of Hamas to carry out attacks and murder against Israelis. The General Security Service captured a squad of students from Bir Zeit who were employed by the Hamas headquarters in Turkey to carry out murder attacks in Israel, through training and weapons and tens of thousands of dollars provided to them.
“Erdogan turned Turkey into a state that supports terrorism and subjects Turkey to the Iranian axis of evil in the name of extreme ideology and blatant anti-Semitism.”
Katz’s comments were made in reference to a recently thwarted terror attack planned by the student Hamas cell in Bir Zeit University, north of Ramallah. The attempted attack, the Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) said, was directed by Hamas’s base in Turkey.ארדואן @RTErdogan מממן ומחמש ארגוני טרור של החמאס לביצוע פיגועים ורצח נגד ישראלים. שירות הביטחון הכללי לכד חוליית סטודנטים מביר זית שהופעלו ע”י מפקדת החמאס בטורקיה לביצוע פיגועי רצח בישראל, באמצעות אימונים ונשק ועשרות אלפי דולרים שסופקו להם.ארדואן הפך את טורקיה למדינה תומכת טרור… pic.twitter.com/R0SCjYdngN
— ישראל כ”ץ Israel Katz (@Israel_katz) July 21, 2024
Turkey condemns the social media post
The Turkish ministry responded “The Israeli Foreign Minister is trying to hide Israel’s crimes against the Palestinians behind a series of lies, slander and disrespect.
“Israel’s dirty propaganda targeting Türkiye and President Erdoğan, and psychological operation attempts will not bear fruit.
“The members of the Netanyahu Government, who have killed nearly forty thousand Palestinians in Gaza and are now trying to start a regional war in order to stay in power, will be tried in international courts and held accountable for their crimes.
“Türkiye will continue to speak the truth and defend the right of the Palestinian people to live in justice and peace.”
The ministry cited data provided by the Hamas-run Gaza health ministry, which does not distinguish between combatants and civilians.
Additionally, Turkey has repeatedly asserted that it does not categorize Hamas as a terrorist organization – despite its western allies acknowledging it as such and its proven attacks on Israeli civilians.
-
Solar Energy3 years agoDLR testing the use of molten salt in a solar power plant in Portugal
-
Camera3 years agoCharles ‘Chuck’ Geschke, co-founder of Adobe and inventor of the PDF, dies at 81
-
world news8 months ago
Gulf, France aid Gaza, Russia evacuates citizens
-
world news3 months ago
Jewish diaspora expresses concern as Iranian drones launch toward Israel
-
Camera3 years ago80,000MP panoramas: EarthCam announces world’s highest-resolution robotic webcam
-
TOP SCEINCE3 months agoCan animals count?
-
Solar Energy8 months agoGlencore eyes options on battery recycling project
-
Camera8 months agoDJI Air 3 vs. Mini 4 Pro: which compact drone is best?
