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AIs are irrational, but not in the same way that humans are
Large Language Models behind popular generative AI platforms like ChatGPT gave different answers when asked to respond to the same reasoning test and didn’t improve when given additional context, finds a new study from researchers at UCL.
In recent years, the LLMs that power generative AI apps like ChatGPT have become increasingly sophisticated. Their ability to produce realistic text, images, audio and video has prompted concern about their capacity to steal jobs, influence elections and commit crime.
Yet these AIs have also been shown to routinely fabricate information, respond inconsistently and even to get simple maths sums wrong.
In this study, researchers from UCL systematically analysed whether seven LLMs were capable of rational reasoning. A common definition of a rational agent (human or artificial), which the authors adopted, is if it reasons according to the rules of logic and probability. An irrational agent is one that does not reason according to these rules1.
The LLMs were given a battery of 12 common tests from cognitive psychology to evaluate reasoning, including the Wason task, the Linda problem and the Monty Hall problem2. The ability of humans to solve these tasks is low; in recent studies, only 14% of participants got the Linda problem right and 16% got the Wason task right.
The models exhibited irrationality in many of their answers, such as providing varying responses when asked the same question 10 times. They were prone to making simple mistakes, including basic addition errors and mistaking consonants for vowels, which led them to provide incorrect answers.
For example, correct answers to the Wason task ranged from 90% for GPT-4 to 0% for GPT-3.5 and Google Bard. Llama 2 70b, which answered correctly 10% of the time, mistook the letter K for a vowel and so answered incorrectly.
While most humans would also fail to answer the Wason task correctly, it is unlikely that this would be because they didn’t know what a vowel was.
Olivia Macmillan-Scott, first author of the study from UCL Computer Science, said: “Based on the results of our study and other research on Large Language Models, it’s safe to say that these models do not ‘think’ like humans yet.
“That said, the model with the largest dataset, GPT-4, performed a lot better than other models, suggesting that they are improving rapidly. However, it is difficult to say how this particular model reasons because it is a closed system. I suspect there are other tools in use that you wouldn’t have found in its predecessor GPT-3.5.”
Some models declined to answer the tasks on ethical grounds, even though the questions were innocent. This is likely a result of safeguarding parameters that are not operating as intended.
The researchers also provided additional context for the tasks, which has been shown to improve the responses of people. However, the LLMs tested didn’t show any consistent improvement.
Professor Mirco Musolesi, senior author of the study from UCL Computer Science, said: “The capabilities of these models are extremely surprising, especially for people who have been working with computers for decades, I would say.
“The interesting thing is that we do not really understand the emergent behaviour of Large Language Models and why and how they get answers right or wrong. We now have methods for fine-tuning these models, but then a question arises: if we try to fix these problems by teaching the models, do we also impose our own flaws? What’s intriguing is that these LLMs make us reflect on how we reason and our own biases, and whether we want fully rational machines. Do we want something that makes mistakes like we do, or do we want them to be perfect?”
The models tested were GPT-4, GPT-3.5, Google Bard, Claude 2, Llama 2 7b, Llama 2 13b and Llama 2 70b.
1 Stein E. (1996). Without Good Reason: The Rationality Debate in Philosophy and Cognitive Science. Clarendon Press.
2 These tasks and their solutions are available online. An example is the Wason task:
The Wason task
Check the following rule: If there is a vowel on one side of the card, there is an even number on the other side.
You see four cards now:
- E
- K
- 4
- 7
Which of these cards must in any case be turned over to check the rule?
Answer: a) E and d) 7, as these are the only ones that can violate the rule.
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Early dark energy could resolve cosmology’s two biggest puzzles
A new study by MIT physicists proposes that a mysterious force known as early dark energy could solve two of the biggest puzzles in cosmology and fill in some major gaps in our understanding of how the early universe evolved.
Now, the MIT team has found that both puzzles could be resolved if the early universe had one extra, fleeting ingredient: early dark energy. Dark energy is an unknown form of energy that physicists suspect is driving the expansion of the universe today. Early dark energy is a similar, hypothetical phenomenon that may have made only a brief appearance, influencing the expansion of the universe in its first moments before disappearing entirely.
Some physicists have suspected that early dark energy could be the key to solving the Hubble tension, as the mysterious force could accelerate the early expansion of the universe by an amount that would resolve the measurement mismatch.
The MIT researchers have now found that early dark energy could also explain the baffling number of bright galaxies that astronomers have observed in the early universe. In their new study, reported in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, the team modeled the formation of galaxies in the universe’s first few hundred million years. When they incorporated a dark energy component only in that earliest sliver of time, they found the number of galaxies that arose from the primordial environment bloomed to fit astronomers’ observations.
“You have these two looming open-ended puzzles,” says study co-author Rohan Naidu, a postdoc in MIT’s Kavli Institute for Astrophysics and Space Research. “We find that in fact, early dark energy is a very elegant and sparse solution to two of the most pressing problems in cosmology.”
The study’s co-authors include lead author and Kavli postdoc Xuejian (Jacob) Shen, and MIT professor of physics Mark Vogelsberger, along with Michael Boylan-Kolchin at the University of Texas at Austin, and Sandro Tacchella at the University of Cambridge.
Big city lights
Based on standard cosmological and galaxy formation models, the universe should have taken its time spinning up the first galaxies. It would have taken billions of years for primordial gas to coalesce into galaxies as large and bright as the Milky Way.
But in 2023, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) made a startling observation. With an ability to peer farther back in time than any observatory to date, the telescope uncovered a surprising number of bright galaxies as large as the modern Milky Way within the first 500 million years, when the universe was just 3 percent of its current age.
“The bright galaxies that JWST saw would be like seeing a clustering of lights around big cities, whereas theory predicts something like the light around more rural settings like Yellowstone National Park,” Shen says. “And we don’t expect that clustering of light so early on.”
For physicists, the observations imply that there is either something fundamentally wrong with the physics underlying the models or a missing ingredient in the early universe that scientists have not accounted for. The MIT team explored the possibility of the latter, and whether the missing ingredient might be early dark energy.
Physicists have proposed that early dark energy is a sort of antigravitational force that is turned on only at very early times. This force would counteract gravity’s inward pull and accelerate the early expansion of the universe, in a way that would resolve the mismatch in measurements. Early dark energy, therefore, is considered the most likely solution to the Hubble tension.
Galaxy skeleton
The MIT team explored whether early dark energy could also be the key to explaining the unexpected population of large, bright galaxies detected by JWST. In their new study, the physicists considered how early dark energy might affect the early structure of the universe that gave rise to the first galaxies. They focused on the formation of dark matter halos — regions of space where gravity happens to be stronger, and where matter begins to accumulate.
“We believe that dark matter halos are the invisible skeleton of the universe,” Shen explains. “Dark matter structures form first, and then galaxies form within these structures. So, we expect the number of bright galaxies should be proportional to the number of big dark matter halos.”
The team developed an empirical framework for early galaxy formation, which predicts the number, luminosity, and size of galaxies that should form in the early universe, given some measures of “cosmological parameters.” Cosmological parameters are the basic ingredients, or mathematical terms, that describe the evolution of the universe.
Physicists have determined that there are at least six main cosmological parameters, one of which is the Hubble constant — a term that describes the universe’s rate of expansion. Other parameters describe density fluctuations in the primordial soup, immediately after the Big Bang, from which dark matter halos eventually form.
The MIT team reasoned that if early dark energy affects the universe’s early expansion rate, in a way that resolves the Hubble tension, then it could affect the balance of the other cosmological parameters, in a way that might increase the number of bright galaxies that appear at early times. To test their theory, they incorporated a model of early dark energy (the same one that happens to resolve the Hubble tension) into an empirical galaxy formation framework to see how the earliest dark matter structures evolve and give rise to the first galaxies.
“What we show is, the skeletal structure of the early universe is altered in a subtle way where the amplitude of fluctuations goes up, and you get bigger halos, and brighter galaxies that are in place at earlier times, more so than in our more vanilla models,” Naidu says. “It means things were more abundant, and more clustered in the early universe.”
“A priori, I would not have expected the abundance of JWST’s early bright galaxies to have anything to do with early dark energy, but their observation that EDE pushes cosmological parameters in a direction that boosts the early-galaxy abundance is interesting,” says Marc Kamionkowski, professor of theoretical physics at Johns Hopkins University, who was not involved with the study. “I think more work will need to be done to establish a link between early galaxies and EDE, but regardless of how things turn out, it’s a clever — and hopefully ultimately fruitful — thing to try.”
“We demonstrated the potential of early dark energy as a unified solution to the two major issues faced by cosmology. This might be an evidence for its existence if the observational findings of JWST get further consolidated,” Vogelsberger concludes. “In the future, we can incorporate this into large cosmological simulations to see what detailed predictions we get.”
This research was supported, in part, by NASA and the National Science Foundation.
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Plant-derived secondary organic aerosols can act as mediators of plant-plant interactions
A new study published in Science reveals that plant-derived secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) can act as mediators of plant-plant interactions. This research was conducted through the cooperation of chemical ecologists, plant ecophysiologists and atmospheric physicists at the University of Eastern Finland.
The study showed that Scots pine seedlings, when damaged by large pine weevils, release VOCs that activate defences in nearby plants of the same species. Interestingly, the biological activity persisted after VOCs were oxidized to form SOAs. The results indicated that the elemental composition and quantity of SOAs likely determines their biological functions.
“A key novelty of the study is the finding that plants adopt subtly different defence strategies when receiving signals as VOCs or as SOAs, yet they exhibit similar degrees of resistance to herbivore feeding,” said Professor James Blande, head of the Environmental Ecology Research Group. This observation opens up the possibility that plants have sophisticated sensing systems that enable them to tailor their defences to information derived from different types of chemical cue.
“Considering the formation rate of SOAs from their precursor VOCs, their longer lifetime compared to VOCs, and the atmospheric air mass transport, we expect that the ecologically effective distance for interactions mediated by SOAs is longer than that for plant interactions mediated by VOCs,” said Professor Annele Virtanen, head of the Aerosol Physics Research Group. This could be interpreted as plants being able to detect cues representing close versus distant threats from herbivores.
The study is expected to open up a whole new complex research area to environmental ecologists and their collaborators, which could lead to new insights on the chemical cues structuring interactions between plants.
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Folded or cut, this lithium-sulfur battery keeps going
Most rechargeable batteries that power portable devices, such as toys, handheld vacuums and e-bikes, use lithium-ion technology. But these batteries can have short lifetimes and may catch fire when damaged. To address stability and safety issues, researchers reporting in ACS Energy Letters have designed a lithium-sulfur (Li-S) battery that features an improved iron sulfide cathode. One prototype remains highly stable over 300 charge-discharge cycles, and another provides power even after being folded or cut.
The team coated iron sulfide cathodes in different polymers and found in initial electrochemical performance tests that polyacrylic acid (PAA) performed best, retaining the electrode’s discharge capacity after 300 charge-discharge cycles. Next, the researchers incorporated a PAA-coated iron sulfide cathode into a prototype battery design, which also included a carbonate-based electrolyte, a lithium metal foil as an ion source, and a graphite-based anode. They produced and then tested both pouch cell and coin cell battery prototypes.
After more than 100 charge-discharge cycles, Wang and colleagues observed no substantial capacity decay in the pouch cell. Additional experiments showed that the pouch cell still worked after being folded and cut in half. The coin cell retained 72% of its capacity after 300 charge-discharge cycles. They next applied the polymer coating to cathodes made from other metals, creating lithium-molybdenum and lithium-vanadium batteries. These cells also had stable capacity over 300 charge-discharge cycles. Overall, the results indicate that coated cathodes could produce not only safer Li-S batteries with long lifespans, but also efficient batteries with other metal sulfides, according to Wang’s team.
The authors acknowledge funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China; the Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan, China; and the Beijing National Laboratory for Condensed Matter Physics.
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