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Designing cities for 21st-century weather

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Designing cities for 21st-century weather


Weather extremes, such as heatwaves and torrential rainfalls, are becoming more frequent and more intense across the United States under climate change.

In late September of this year, flash-flooding surged down neighborhood streets and subway stairways in New York City, as a historic rainfall led to canceled flights and closed roads and city officials urged people to stay at home or shelter in place. Some areas of the city saw up to 2.58 inches of rain in one day, nearly 50% more than the city sewer system’s maximum capacity, causing wastewater problems for many low-lying homes and businesses.

Intuitively, when an extreme weather event hits a city, the more residents it has, the larger number of people are affected. Currently, 83% of the United States population lives in urban settings, according to the U.S. Census. This number is expected to grow over the coming decades, rendering urban climate resilience extraordinarily important. As a result, many people have the impression that the growing sizes of cities are making weather extremes worse for the people who live there.

However, cities are designed and built by people. So, it stands to reason that if some methods of land development increase population exposures to extreme weather conditions, others might hold the potential to moderate or even reduce population exposures as the climate changes over the coming decades.

To explore this idea, University of Delaware researcher Jing Gao, assistant professor in the College of Earth, Ocean and Environment and a resident faculty member in the Data Science Institute, and colleague Melissa Bukovsky, associate professor in the Haub School of Environment and Natural Resources at the University of Wyoming, investigated how changes in urban land and population will affect future populations’ exposures to weather extremes under climate conditions at the end of the 21st century.

The researchers looked at urban areas across the continental United States, including cities large and small, with various development densities and in different climate regions. They used a data-driven model developed by Gao to predict how urban areas across the country will grow by 2100, based on development trends observed over the past 40 years. The research team considered how these urban land changes might affect weather extremes like heat waves, cold waves, heavy rainfalls and severe thunderstorms. They then analyzed how many people would be exposed to these extremes under different climate and urban development conditions at the end of the century.

The research team’s simulations showed that at the end of the 21st century, how a city is laid out or organized spatially, often called an urban land pattern, has the potential to reduce population exposures to future weather extremes, even for heat waves under very high urban expansion rates. Further, how the urban landscape is designed — meaning how buildings are clustered or dispersed and how they fit into the surrounding environment — seem to matter more than simply the size of a city. This is true even while climate change is increasing population exposures.


These findings apply to all cities, from large metropolitan areas like New York City to smaller towns in more rural contexts, such as Newark, Delaware.

“Regardless of the size of a city, well planned urban land patterns can reduce population exposures to weather extremes,” Gao said. “In other words, cities large and small can reduce their risks caused by weather extremes by better arranging their land developments.”

These findings differ from current common perceptions. For example, existing literature in this area has almost exclusively focused on limiting the amount of urban land development, Gao said.

In contrast, the new findings from this research encourage researchers and practitioners from a wide range of related fields to reconsider how cities are designed and built so that they can be in harmony with their regional natural surroundings and more resilient to potential climate risks over the long run.

Gao likened the effects of climate change and urban land patterns on extreme weather risks to the effects of a person’s diet and activity level on their risk for health problems. Properly designed urban land patterns, she said, are like physical exercises that work to counteract poor dietary choices, contributing to a reduced risk for disease, while helping a person become more fit in general.

“Carefully designed urban land patterns cannot completely erase increased population exposures to weather extremes resulting from climate change, but it can generate a meaningful reduction of the increase in risks,” Gao said.


And the cost to start is small, Gao said. No extravagant measure, such as leveling and rebuilding a large area at once, is required.

“Instead, when building new and renovating existing parts of a city, we should adjust our mindset to consider how the new development and renovation will change the way the city as a whole situates in its natural surroundings, and how the city and its surrounds can be one integrated human-environment system at large scales over the long run,” Gao said. “The key is to start adjusting how we think about development now.”

Next steps in the work

The researchers are working to identify specific characteristics about the spatial arrangement of a city that can make it more — or less — resilient to future weather extremes. Identifying these patterns can help guide development that is more sustainable in the face of increasing instances of extreme weather. Through their efforts, the research team hopes to provide actionable suggestions for how to design and build urban areas that reduce their residents’ exposures to weather extremes in the long run.

Importantly, the researchers emphasized that these characteristics will likely vary from region to region, now and as climate changes. For instance, what works in arid Phoenix, Arizona, will probably differ from what will work in humid New Orleans, Louisiana. Likewise, what might work today for a city could differ from what will work in the future, as climate conditions evolve.

“Eventually, we want our work to be directly useful to urban design and planning efforts, offering insights and tools for decision makers to influence long-term social and environmental well-being at scale,” Bukovsky said. “First, though, we need to identify what development patterns can improve various cities’ long-term climate resilience. We will continue collaborating in the future.”



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New drug shows promise in clearing HIV from brain

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An experimental drug originally developed to treat cancer may help clear HIV from infected cells in the brain, according to a new Tulane University study.

For the first time, researchers at Tulane National Primate Research Center found that a cancer drug significantly reduced levels of SIV, the nonhuman primate equivalent of HIV, in the brain by targeting and depleting certain immune cells that harbor the virus.

Published in the journal Brain, this discovery marks a significant step toward eliminating HIV from hard-to-reach reservoirs where the virus evades otherwise effective treatment.

“This research is an important step in tackling brain-related issues caused by HIV, which still affect people even when they are on effective HIV medication,” said lead study author Woong-Ki Kim, PhD, associate director for research at Tulane National Primate Research Center. “By specifically targeting the infected cells in the brain, we may be able to clear the virus from these hidden areas, which has been a major challenge in HIV treatment.”

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is an essential component of successful HIV treatment, maintaining the virus at undetectable levels in the blood and transforming HIV from a terminal illness into a manageable condition. However, ART does not completely eradicate HIV, necessitating lifelong treatment. The virus persists in “viral reservoirs” in the brain, liver, and lymph nodes, where it remains out of reach of ART.

The brain has been a particularly challenging area for treatment due to the blood-brain barrier — a protective membrane that shields it from harmful substances but also blocks treatments, allowing the virus to persist. In addition, cells in the brain known as macrophages are extremely long-lived, making them difficult to eradicate once they become infected.

Infection of macrophages is thought to contribute to neurocognitive dysfunction, experienced by nearly half of those living with HIV. Eradicating the virus from the brain is critical for comprehensive HIV treatment and could significantly improve the quality of life for those with HIV-related neurocognitive problems.

Researchers focused on macrophages, a type of white blood cell that harbors HIV in the brain. By using a small molecule inhibitor to block a receptor that increases in HIV-infected macrophages, the team successfully reduced the viral load in the brain. This approach essentially cleared the virus from brain tissue, providing a potential new treatment avenue for HIV.

The small molecule inhibitor used, BLZ945, has previously been studied for therapeutic use in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and brain cancer, but never before in the context of clearing HIV from the brain.

The study, which took place at the Tulane National Primate Research Center, utilized three groups to model human HIV infection and treatment: an untreated control group, and two groups treated with either a low or high dose of the small molecule inhibitor for 30 days. The high-dose treatment lead to a notable reduction in cells expressing HIV receptor sites, as well as a 95-99% decrease in viral DNA loads in the brain .

In addition to reducing viral loads, the treatment did not significantly impact microglia, the brain’s resident immune cells, which are essential for maintaining a healthy neuroimmune environment. It also did not show signs of liver toxicity at the doses tested.

The next step for the research team is to test this therapy in conjunction with ART to assess its efficacy in a combined treatment approach. This could pave the way for more comprehensive strategies to eradicate HIV from the body entirely.

This research was funded by the National Institutes of Health, including grants from the National Institute of Mental Health and the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, and was supported with resources from the Tulane National Primate Research Center base grant of the National Institutes of Health, P51 OD011104.



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Chemical analyses find hidden elements from renaissance astronomer Tycho Brahe’s alchemy laboratory

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In the Middle Ages, alchemists were notoriously secretive and didn’t share their knowledge with others. Danish Tycho Brahe was no exception. Consequently, we don’t know precisely what he did in the alchemical laboratory located beneath his combined residence and observatory, Uraniborg, on the now Swedish island of Ven.

Only a few of his alchemical recipes have survived, and today, there are very few remnants of his laboratory. Uraniborg was demolished after his death in 1601, and the building materials were scattered for reuse.

However, during an excavation in 1988-1990, some pottery and glass shards were found in Uraniborg’s old garden. These shards were believed to originate from the basement’s alchemical laboratory. Five of these shards — four glass and one ceramic — have now undergone chemical analyses to determine which elements the original glass and ceramic containers came into contact with.

The chemical analyses were conducted by Professor Emeritus and expert in archaeometry, Kaare Lund Rasmussen from the Department of Physics, Chemistry, and Pharmacy, University of Southern Denmark. Senior researcher and museum curator Poul Grinder-Hansen from the National Museum of Denmark oversaw the insertion of the analyses into historical context.

Enriched levels of trace elements were found on four of them, while one glass shard showed no specific enrichments. The study has been published in the journal Heritage Science.

“Most intriguing are the elements found in higher concentrations than expected — indicating enrichment and providing insight into the substances used in Tycho Brahe’s alchemical laboratory,” said Kaare Lund Rasmussen.

The enriched elements are nickel, copper, zinc, tin, antimony, tungsten, gold, mercury, and lead, and they have been found on either the inside or outside of the shards.

Most of them are not surprising for an alchemist’s laboratory. Gold and mercury were — at least among the upper echelons of society — commonly known and used against a wide range of diseases.

“But tungsten is very mysterious. Tungsten had not even been described at that time, so what should we infer from its presence on a shard from Tycho Brahe’s alchemy workshop?,” said Kaare Lund Rasmussen.

Tungsten was first described and produced in pure form more than 180 years later by the Swedish chemist Carl Wilhelm Scheele. Tungsten occurs naturally in certain minerals, and perhaps the element found its way to Tycho Brahe’s laboratory through one of these minerals. In the laboratory, the mineral might have undergone some processing that separated the tungsten, without Tycho Brahe ever realizing it.

However, there is also another possibility that Professor Kaare Lund Rasmussen emphasizes has no evidence whatsoever — but which could be plausible.

Already in the first half of the 1500s, the German mineralogist Georgius Agricola described something strange in tin ore from Saxony, which caused problems when he tried to smelt tin. Agricola called this strange substance in the tin ore “Wolfram” (German for Wolf’s froth, later renamed to tungsten in English).

“Maybe Tycho Brahe had heard about this and thus knew of tungsten’s existence. But this is not something we know or can say based on the analyses I have done. It is merely a possible theoretical explanation for why we find tungsten in the samples,” said Kaare Lund Rasmussen.

Tycho Brahe belonged to the branch of alchemists who, inspired by the German physician Paracelsus, tried to develop medicine for various diseases of the time: plague, syphilis, leprosy, fever, stomach aches, etc. But he distanced himself from the branch that tried to create gold from less valuable minerals and metals.

In line with the other medical alchemists of the time, he kept his recipes close to his chest and shared them only with a few selected individuals, such as his patron, Emperor Rudolph II, who allegedly received Tycho Brahe’s prescriptions for plague medicine.

We know that Tycho Brahe’s plague medicine was complicated to produce. It contained theriac, which was one of the standard remedies for almost everything at the time and could have up to 60 ingredients, including snake flesh and opium. It also contained copper or iron vitriol (sulphates), various oils, and herbs.

After various filtrations and distillations, the first of Brahe’s three recipes against plague was obtained. This could be made even more potent by adding tinctures of, for example, coral, sapphires, hyacinths, or potable gold.

“It may seem strange that Tycho Brahe was involved in both astronomy and alchemy, but when one understands his worldview, it makes sense. He believed that there were obvious connections between the heavenly bodies, earthly substances, and the body’s organs. Thus, the Sun, gold, and the heart were connected, and the same applied to the Moon, silver, and the brain; Jupiter, tin, and the liver; Venus, copper, and the kidneys; Saturn, lead, and the spleen; Mars, iron, and the gallbladder; and Mercury, mercury, and the lungs. Minerals and gemstones could also be linked to this system, so emeralds, for example, belonged to Mercury,” explained Poul Grinder-Hansen.

Kaare Lund Rasmussen has previously analyzed hair and bones from Tycho Brahe and found, among other elements, gold. This could indicate that Tycho Brahe himself had taken medicine that contained potable gold.



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Nitrogen emissions have a net cooling effect: But researchers warn against a climate solution

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An international team of researchers has found that nitrogen emissions from fertilisers and fossil fuels have a net cooling effect on the climate. But they warn increasing atmospheric nitrogen has further damaging effects on the environment, calling for an urgent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to halt global warming.

Published today in Nature, the paper found that reactive nitrogen released in the environment through human activities cools the climate by minus 0.34 watts per square metre. While global warming would have advanced further without the input of human-generated nitrogen, the amount would not offset the level of greenhouse gasses heating the atmosphere.

The paper was led by the Max Planck Institute in Germany and included authors from the University of Sydney. It comes one day after new data from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service indicated that Sunday, 21 July was the hottest day recorded in recent history.

The net cooling effect occurs in four ways:

  • Short-lived nitrogen oxides produced by the combustion of fossil fuels pollute the atmosphere by forming fine suspended particles which shield sunlight, in turn cooling the climate;

  • ammonia (a nitrogen and hydrogen-based compound) released into the atmosphere from the application of manure and artificial fertilisers has a similar effect;

  • nitrogen applied to crops allows plants to grow more abundantly, absorbing more CO2 from the atmosphere, enabling a cooling effect;

  • nitrogen oxides also play a role in the breakdown of atmospheric methane, a potent greenhouse gas.

The researchers warned that increasing atmospheric nitrogen was not a solution for combatting climate change.

“Nitrogen fertilisers pollute water and nitrogen oxides from fossil fuels pollute the air. Therefore, increasing rates of nitrogen in the atmosphere to combat climate change is not an acceptable compromise, nor is it a solution,” said Professor Federico Maggi from the University of Sydney’s School of Civil Engineering.

Sönke Zaehle from the Max Planck Institute said: “This may sound like good news, but you have to bear in mind that nitrogen emissions have many harmful effects, for example on health, biodiversity and the ozone layer. The current findings, therefore, are no reason to gloss over the harmful effects, let alone see additional nitrogen input as a means of combatting global warming.”

Elemental nitrogen, which makes up around 78 percent of the air, is climate-neutral, but other reactive nitrogen compounds can have direct or indirect effects on the global climate — sometimes warming and at other times cooling. Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an almost 300 times more potent greenhouse gas than CO2. Other forms of nitrogen stimulate the formation of ozone in the troposphere, which is a potent greenhouse gas and enhances global warming.

Professor Maggi said the research was important as it helped the team gain an understanding of the net-effect of the distribution of nitrogen emissions from agriculture.

“This work is an extraordinary example of how complex interactions at planetary scales cannot be captured with simplistic assessment tools. It shows the importance of developing mathematical models that can show the emergence of nonlinear — or unproportional — effects across soil, land, and atmosphere,” he said.

“Even if it appears counter-intuitive, reactive nitrogen introduced in the environment, mostly as agricultural fertilisers, can reduce total warming. However, this is minor compared with the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions required to keep the planet within safe and just operational boundaries.

“New generation computational tools are helping drive new learnings in climate change science, but understanding is not enough — we must act with great urgency to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”

Gaining a holistic understanding of the impacts of nitrogen

The scientists determined the overall impact of nitrogen from human sources by first analysing the quantities of the various nitrogen compounds that end up in soil, water and air.

They then fed this data into models that depict the global nitrogen cycle and the effects on the carbon cycle, for example the stimulation of plant growth and ultimately the CO2 and methane content of the atmosphere. From the results of these simulations, they used another atmospheric chemistry model to calculate the effect of man-made nitrogen emissions on radiative forcing, that is the radiant energy that hits one square metre of the Earth’s surface per unit of time.



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