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Northern Hemisphere summers may last nearly half the year by 2100

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Northern Hemisphere summers may last nearly half the year by 2100

Without efforts to mitigate climate change, summers spanning nearly six months may become the new normal by 2100 in the Northern Hemisphere, according to a new study. The change would likely have far-reaching impacts on agriculture, human health and the environment, according to the study authors.

In the 1950s in the Northern Hemisphere, the four seasons arrived in a predictable and fairly even pattern. But climate change is now driving dramatic and irregular changes to the length and start dates of the seasons, which may become more extreme in the future under a business-as-usual climate scenario.
“Summers are getting longer and hotter while winters shorter and warmer due to global warming,” said Yuping Guan, a physical oceanographer at the State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and lead author of the new study in Geophysical Research Letters, AGU’s journal for high-impact, short-format reports with immediate implications spanning all Earth and space sciences.Guan was inspired to investigate changes to the seasonal cycle while mentoring an undergraduate student, co-author Jiamin Wang. “”More often, I read some unseasonable weather reports, for example, false spring, or May snow, and the like,” Guan said.

The researchers used historical daily climate data from 1952 to 2011 to measure changes in the four seasons’ length and onset in the Northern Hemisphere. They defined the start of summer as the onset of temperatures in the hottest 25% during that time period, while winter began with temperatures in the coldest 25%. Next, the team used established climate change models to predict how seasons will shift in the future.

The new study found that, on average, summer grew from 78 to 95 days between 1952 to 2011, while winter shrank from 76 to 73 days. Spring and autumn also contracted from 124 to 115 days, and 87 to 82 days, respectively. Accordingly, spring and summer began earlier, while autumn and winter started later. The Mediterranean region and the Tibetan Plateau experienced the greatest changes to their seasonal cycles.

If these trends continue without any effort to mitigate climate change, the researchers predict that by 2100, winter will last less than two months, and the transitional spring and autumn seasons will shrink further as well.

“Numerous studies have already shown that the changing seasons cause significant environmental and health risks,” Guan said. For example, birds are shifting their migration patterns and plants are emerging and flowering at different times. These phenological changes can create mismatches between animals and their food sources, disrupting ecological communities.

Seasonal changes can also wreak havoc on agriculture, especially when false springs or late snowstorms damage budding plants. And with longer growing seasons, humans will breathe in more allergy-causing pollen, and disease-carrying mosquitoes can expand their range northward.

Going to extremes

This shift in the seasons may result in more severe weather events, said Congwen Zhu, a monsoon researcher at the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Climate System, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, who was not involved in the new study.

“A hotter and longer summer will suffer more frequent and intensified high-temperature events — heatwaves and wildfires,” Zhu said. Additionally, warmer, shorter winters may cause instability that leads to cold surges and winter storms, much like the recent snowstorms in Texas and Israel, he said.

“”This is a good overarching starting point for understanding the implications of seasonal change,” said Scott Sheridan, a climate scientist at Kent State University who was not part of the new study.

It is difficult to conceptualize a 2- or 5-degree average temperature increase, he said, but “I think realizing that these changes will force potentially dramatic shifts in seasons probably has a much greater impact on how you perceive what climate change is doing.”

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Florida fossil porcupine solves a prickly dilemma 10-million years in the making

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Northern Hemisphere summers may last nearly half the year by 2100


There’s a longstanding debate simmering among biologists who study porcupines. There are 16 porcupine species in Central and South America, but only one in the United States and Canada. DNA evidence suggests North America’s sole porcupine belongs to a group that originated 10 million years ago, but fossils seem to tell a different story. Some paleontologists think they may have evolved just 2.5 million years ago, at the beginning of the ice ages.

A new study published in the journal Current Biology claims to have reconciled the dispute, thanks to an exceptionally rare, nearly complete porcupine skeleton discovered in Florida. The authors reached their conclusion by studying key differences in bone structure between North and South American porcupines, but getting there wasn’t easy. It took an entire class of graduate and undergraduate students and several years of careful preparation and study.

“Even for a seasoned curator with all the necessary expertise, it takes an incredible amount of time to fully study and process an entire skeleton,” said lead author Natasha Vitek. While studying as a doctoral student at the Florida Museum of Natural History, Vitek teamed up with vertebrate paleontology curator Jonathan Bloch to create a college course in which students got hands-on research experience by studying porcupine fossils.

Ancient radiation gave rise to world’s largest rodents

Porcupines are a type of rodent, and their ancestors likely originated in Africa more than 30 million years ago. Their descendants have since wandered into Asia and parts of Europe by land, but their journey to South America is a particularly defining event in the history of mammals. They crossed the Atlantic Ocean — likely by rafting — when Africa and South America were much closer together than they are today. They were the first rodents to ever set foot on the continent, where they evolved into well-known groups like guinea pigs, chinchillas, capybaras and porcupines.

Some took on giant proportions. There were lumbering, rat-like animals up to five feet long, equipped with a tiny brain that weighed less than a plum. Extinct relatives of the capybara grew to the size of cows.

Porcupines remained relatively small and evolved adaptations for life in the treetops of South America’s lush rainforests. Today, they travel through the canopy with the aid of long fingers capped with blunt, sickle-shaped claws perfectly angled for gripping branches. Many also have long, prehensile tails capable of bearing their weight, which they use while climbing and reaching for fruit.

Despite their excellent track record of getting around, South America was a dead end for many millions of years. A vast seaway with swift currents separated North and South America, and most animals were unable to cross — with a few notable exceptions.

Beginning about 5 million years ago, the Isthmus of Panama rose above sea level, cutting off the Pacific from the Atlantic. This land bridge became the ancient equivalent of a congested highway a few million years later, with traffic flowing in both directions.

Prehistoric elephants, saber-toothed cats, jaguars, llamas, peccaries, deer, skunks and bears streamed from North America to South. The reverse trek was made by four different kinds of ground sloths, oversized armadillos, terror birds, capybaras and even a marsupial.

The two groups met with radically different fates. Those mammals migrating south did fairly well; many became successfully established in their new tropical environments and survived to the present. But nearly all lineages that ventured north into colder environments have gone extinct. Today, there are only three survivors: the nine-banded armadillo, the Virginia opossum and the North American porcupine.

New fossils catch evolution in the act

Animals that traveled north had to contend with new environments that bore little resemblance to the ones they left behind. Warm, tropical forests gave way to open grasslands, deserts and cold deciduous forests. For porcupines, this meant coping with brutal winters, fewer resources and coming down from the trees to walk on land. They still haven’t quite gotten the hang of the latter; North American porcupines have a maximum ground speed of about 2 mph.

South American porcupines are equipped with a menacing coat of hollow, overlapping quills, which offer a substantial amount of protection but do little to regulate body temperature. North American porcupines replaced these with a mix of insulating fur and long, needle-like quills that can be raised when they feel threatened. They also had to modify their diet, which changed the shape of their jaw.

“In winter, when their favorite foods are not around, they will bite into tree bark to get at the softer tissue underneath. It’s not great food, but it’s better than nothing,” Vitek said. “We think this type of feeding selected for a particular jaw structure that makes them better at grinding.”

They also lost their prehensile tails. Although North American porcupines still like climbing, it’s not their forte. Museum specimens often show evidence of healed bone fractures, likely caused by falling from trees.

Many of these traits can be observed in fossils. The problem is there aren’t many fossils to go around. According to Vitek, most are either individual teeth or jaw fragments, and researchers often lump them in with South American porcupines. Those that are considered to belong to the North American group lack the critical features that would provide paleontologists with clues to how they evolved.

So when Florida Museum paleontologist Art Poyer found an exquisitely preserved porcupine skeleton in a Florida limestone quarry, they were well aware of its significance.

“When they first brought it in, I was amazed,” said Bloch, senior author of the study. “It is so rare to get fossil skeletons like this with not only a skull and jaws, but many associated bones from the rest of the body. It allows for a much more complete picture of how this extinct mammal would have interacted with its environment. Right away we noticed that it was different from modern North American porcupines in having a specialized tail for grasping branches.”

By comparing the fossil skeleton with bones from modern porcupines, Bloch and Vitek were confident they could determine its identity. But the amount of work this would require was more than one person could do on their own in a short amount of time. So they co-created a paleontology college course, in which the only assignment for the entire semester was studying porcupine bones.

“It’s the kind of thing that could only be taught at a place like the Florida Museum, where you have both collections and enough students to study them,” Vitek said. “We focused on details of the jaw, limbs, feet and tails. It required a very detailed series of comparisons that you might not even notice on the first pass.”

The results were surprising. The fossil lacked the reinforced bark-gnawing jaws and possessed a prehensile tail, making it appear more closely related to South American porcupines. But, Vitek said, other traits bore a stronger similarity to North American porcupines, including the shape of the middle ear bone as well as the shapes of the lower front and back teeth.

With all the data combined, analyses consistently provided the same answer. The fossils belonged to an extinct species of North American porcupine, meaning this group has a long history that likely began before the Isthmus of Panama had formed. But questions remain as to how many species once existed in this group or why they went extinct.

“One thing that isn’t resolved by our study is whether these extinct species are direct ancestors of the North American porcupine that is alive today,” Vitek said. “It’s also possible porcupines got into temperate regions twice, once along the Gulf Coast and once out west. We’re not there yet.”

Jennifer Hoeflich, Isaac Magallanes, Sean Moran, Rachel Narducci, Victor Perez, Jeanette Pirlo, Mitchell Riegler, Molly Selba, María Vallejo-Pareja, Michael Ziegler, Michael Granatosky and Richard Hulbert of the Florida Museum of Natural History are also authors on the paper.



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Charge your laptop in a minute or your EV in 10? Supercapacitors can help

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Northern Hemisphere summers may last nearly half the year by 2100


Imagine if your dead laptop or phone could charge in a minute or if an electric car could be fully powered in 10 minutes.

While not possible yet, new research by a team of CU Boulder scientists could potentially lead to such advances.

Published today in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, researchers in Ankur Gupta’s lab discovered how tiny charged particles, called ions, move within a complex network of minuscule pores. The breakthrough could lead to the development of more efficient energy storage devices, such as supercapacitors, said Gupta, an assistant professor of chemical and biological engineering.

“Given the critical role of energy in the future of the planet, I felt inspired to apply my chemical engineering knowledge to advancing energy storage devices,” Gupta said. “It felt like the topic was somewhat underexplored and as such, the perfect opportunity.”

Gupta explained that several chemical engineering techniques are used to study flow in porous materials such as oil reservoirs and water filtration, but they have not been fully utilized in some energy storage systems.

The discovery is significant not only for storing energy in vehicles and electronic devices but also for power grids, where fluctuating energy demand requires efficient storage to avoid waste during periods of low demand and to ensure rapid supply during high demand.

Supercapacitors, energy storage devices that rely on ion accumulation in their pores, have rapid charging times and longer life spans compared to batteries.

“The primary appeal of supercapacitors lies in their speed,” Gupta said. “So how can we make their charging and release of energy faster? By the more efficient movement of ions.”

Their findings modify Kirchhoff’s law, which has governed current flow in electrical circuits since 1845 and is a staple in high school students’ science classes. Unlike electrons, ions move due to both electric fields and diffusion, and the researchers determined that their movements at pore intersections are different from what was described in Kirchhoff’s law.

Prior to the study, ion movements were only described in the literature in one straight pore. Through this research, ion movement in a complex network of thousands of interconnected pores can be simulated and predicted in a few minutes.

“That’s the leap of the work,” Gupta said. “We found the missing link.”



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AI headphones let wearer listen to a single person in a crowd, by looking at them just once

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Northern Hemisphere summers may last nearly half the year by 2100


Noise-canceling headphones have gotten very good at creating an auditory blank slate. But allowing certain sounds from a wearer’s environment through the erasure still challenges researchers. The latest edition of Apple’s AirPods Pro, for instance, automatically adjusts sound levels for wearers — sensing when they’re in conversation, for instance — but the user has little control over whom to listen to or when this happens.

A University of Washington team has developed an artificial intelligence system that lets a user wearing headphones look at a person speaking for three to five seconds to “enroll” them. The system, called “Target Speech Hearing,” then cancels all other sounds in the environment and plays just the enrolled speaker’s voice in real time even as the listener moves around in noisy places and no longer faces the speaker.

The team presented its findings May 14 in Honolulu at the ACM CHI Conference on Human Factors in Computing Systems. The code for the proof-of-concept device is available for others to build on. The system is not commercially available.

“We tend to think of AI now as web-based chatbots that answer questions,” said senior author Shyam Gollakota, a UW professor in the Paul G. Allen School of Computer Science & Engineering. “But in this project, we develop AI to modify the auditory perception of anyone wearing headphones, given their preferences. With our devices you can now hear a single speaker clearly even if you are in a noisy environment with lots of other people talking.”

To use the system, a person wearing off-the-shelf headphones fitted with microphones taps a button while directing their head at someone talking. The sound waves from that speaker’s voice then should reach the microphones on both sides of the headset simultaneously; there’s a 16-degree margin of error. The headphones send that signal to an on-board embedded computer, where the team’s machine learning software learns the desired speaker’s vocal patterns. The system latches onto that speaker’s voice and continues to play it back to the listener, even as the pair moves around. The system’s ability to focus on the enrolled voice improves as the speaker keeps talking, giving the system more training data.

The team tested its system on 21 subjects, who rated the clarity of the enrolled speaker’s voice nearly twice as high as the unfiltered audio on average.

This work builds on the team’s previous “semantic hearing” research, which allowed users to select specific sound classes — such as birds or voices — that they wanted to hear and canceled other sounds in the environment.

Currently the TSH system can enroll only one speaker at a time, and it’s only able to enroll a speaker when there is not another loud voice coming from the same direction as the target speaker’s voice. If a user isn’t happy with the sound quality, they can run another enrollment on the speaker to improve the clarity.

The team is working to expand the system to earbuds and hearing aids in the future.

Additional co-authors on the paper were Bandhav Veluri, Malek Itani and Tuochao Chen, UW doctoral students in the Allen School, and Takuya Yoshioka, director of research at AssemblyAI. This research was funded by a Moore Inventor Fellow award, a Thomas J. Cabel Endowed Professorship and a UW CoMotion Innovation Gap Fund.



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