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Northern Hemisphere summers may last nearly half the year by 2100

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Northern Hemisphere summers may last nearly half the year by 2100

Without efforts to mitigate climate change, summers spanning nearly six months may become the new normal by 2100 in the Northern Hemisphere, according to a new study. The change would likely have far-reaching impacts on agriculture, human health and the environment, according to the study authors.

In the 1950s in the Northern Hemisphere, the four seasons arrived in a predictable and fairly even pattern. But climate change is now driving dramatic and irregular changes to the length and start dates of the seasons, which may become more extreme in the future under a business-as-usual climate scenario.
“Summers are getting longer and hotter while winters shorter and warmer due to global warming,” said Yuping Guan, a physical oceanographer at the State Key Laboratory of Tropical Oceanography, South China Sea Institute of Oceanology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, and lead author of the new study in Geophysical Research Letters, AGU’s journal for high-impact, short-format reports with immediate implications spanning all Earth and space sciences.Guan was inspired to investigate changes to the seasonal cycle while mentoring an undergraduate student, co-author Jiamin Wang. “”More often, I read some unseasonable weather reports, for example, false spring, or May snow, and the like,” Guan said.

The researchers used historical daily climate data from 1952 to 2011 to measure changes in the four seasons’ length and onset in the Northern Hemisphere. They defined the start of summer as the onset of temperatures in the hottest 25% during that time period, while winter began with temperatures in the coldest 25%. Next, the team used established climate change models to predict how seasons will shift in the future.

The new study found that, on average, summer grew from 78 to 95 days between 1952 to 2011, while winter shrank from 76 to 73 days. Spring and autumn also contracted from 124 to 115 days, and 87 to 82 days, respectively. Accordingly, spring and summer began earlier, while autumn and winter started later. The Mediterranean region and the Tibetan Plateau experienced the greatest changes to their seasonal cycles.

If these trends continue without any effort to mitigate climate change, the researchers predict that by 2100, winter will last less than two months, and the transitional spring and autumn seasons will shrink further as well.

“Numerous studies have already shown that the changing seasons cause significant environmental and health risks,” Guan said. For example, birds are shifting their migration patterns and plants are emerging and flowering at different times. These phenological changes can create mismatches between animals and their food sources, disrupting ecological communities.

Seasonal changes can also wreak havoc on agriculture, especially when false springs or late snowstorms damage budding plants. And with longer growing seasons, humans will breathe in more allergy-causing pollen, and disease-carrying mosquitoes can expand their range northward.

Going to extremes

This shift in the seasons may result in more severe weather events, said Congwen Zhu, a monsoon researcher at the State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather and Institute of Climate System, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, who was not involved in the new study.

“A hotter and longer summer will suffer more frequent and intensified high-temperature events — heatwaves and wildfires,” Zhu said. Additionally, warmer, shorter winters may cause instability that leads to cold surges and winter storms, much like the recent snowstorms in Texas and Israel, he said.

“”This is a good overarching starting point for understanding the implications of seasonal change,” said Scott Sheridan, a climate scientist at Kent State University who was not part of the new study.

It is difficult to conceptualize a 2- or 5-degree average temperature increase, he said, but “I think realizing that these changes will force potentially dramatic shifts in seasons probably has a much greater impact on how you perceive what climate change is doing.”

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New drug shows promise in clearing HIV from brain

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Northern Hemisphere summers may last nearly half the year by 2100


An experimental drug originally developed to treat cancer may help clear HIV from infected cells in the brain, according to a new Tulane University study.

For the first time, researchers at Tulane National Primate Research Center found that a cancer drug significantly reduced levels of SIV, the nonhuman primate equivalent of HIV, in the brain by targeting and depleting certain immune cells that harbor the virus.

Published in the journal Brain, this discovery marks a significant step toward eliminating HIV from hard-to-reach reservoirs where the virus evades otherwise effective treatment.

“This research is an important step in tackling brain-related issues caused by HIV, which still affect people even when they are on effective HIV medication,” said lead study author Woong-Ki Kim, PhD, associate director for research at Tulane National Primate Research Center. “By specifically targeting the infected cells in the brain, we may be able to clear the virus from these hidden areas, which has been a major challenge in HIV treatment.”

Antiretroviral therapy (ART) is an essential component of successful HIV treatment, maintaining the virus at undetectable levels in the blood and transforming HIV from a terminal illness into a manageable condition. However, ART does not completely eradicate HIV, necessitating lifelong treatment. The virus persists in “viral reservoirs” in the brain, liver, and lymph nodes, where it remains out of reach of ART.

The brain has been a particularly challenging area for treatment due to the blood-brain barrier — a protective membrane that shields it from harmful substances but also blocks treatments, allowing the virus to persist. In addition, cells in the brain known as macrophages are extremely long-lived, making them difficult to eradicate once they become infected.

Infection of macrophages is thought to contribute to neurocognitive dysfunction, experienced by nearly half of those living with HIV. Eradicating the virus from the brain is critical for comprehensive HIV treatment and could significantly improve the quality of life for those with HIV-related neurocognitive problems.

Researchers focused on macrophages, a type of white blood cell that harbors HIV in the brain. By using a small molecule inhibitor to block a receptor that increases in HIV-infected macrophages, the team successfully reduced the viral load in the brain. This approach essentially cleared the virus from brain tissue, providing a potential new treatment avenue for HIV.

The small molecule inhibitor used, BLZ945, has previously been studied for therapeutic use in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) and brain cancer, but never before in the context of clearing HIV from the brain.

The study, which took place at the Tulane National Primate Research Center, utilized three groups to model human HIV infection and treatment: an untreated control group, and two groups treated with either a low or high dose of the small molecule inhibitor for 30 days. The high-dose treatment lead to a notable reduction in cells expressing HIV receptor sites, as well as a 95-99% decrease in viral DNA loads in the brain .

In addition to reducing viral loads, the treatment did not significantly impact microglia, the brain’s resident immune cells, which are essential for maintaining a healthy neuroimmune environment. It also did not show signs of liver toxicity at the doses tested.

The next step for the research team is to test this therapy in conjunction with ART to assess its efficacy in a combined treatment approach. This could pave the way for more comprehensive strategies to eradicate HIV from the body entirely.

This research was funded by the National Institutes of Health, including grants from the National Institute of Mental Health and the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke, and was supported with resources from the Tulane National Primate Research Center base grant of the National Institutes of Health, P51 OD011104.



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Chemical analyses find hidden elements from renaissance astronomer Tycho Brahe’s alchemy laboratory

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Northern Hemisphere summers may last nearly half the year by 2100


In the Middle Ages, alchemists were notoriously secretive and didn’t share their knowledge with others. Danish Tycho Brahe was no exception. Consequently, we don’t know precisely what he did in the alchemical laboratory located beneath his combined residence and observatory, Uraniborg, on the now Swedish island of Ven.

Only a few of his alchemical recipes have survived, and today, there are very few remnants of his laboratory. Uraniborg was demolished after his death in 1601, and the building materials were scattered for reuse.

However, during an excavation in 1988-1990, some pottery and glass shards were found in Uraniborg’s old garden. These shards were believed to originate from the basement’s alchemical laboratory. Five of these shards — four glass and one ceramic — have now undergone chemical analyses to determine which elements the original glass and ceramic containers came into contact with.

The chemical analyses were conducted by Professor Emeritus and expert in archaeometry, Kaare Lund Rasmussen from the Department of Physics, Chemistry, and Pharmacy, University of Southern Denmark. Senior researcher and museum curator Poul Grinder-Hansen from the National Museum of Denmark oversaw the insertion of the analyses into historical context.

Enriched levels of trace elements were found on four of them, while one glass shard showed no specific enrichments. The study has been published in the journal Heritage Science.

“Most intriguing are the elements found in higher concentrations than expected — indicating enrichment and providing insight into the substances used in Tycho Brahe’s alchemical laboratory,” said Kaare Lund Rasmussen.

The enriched elements are nickel, copper, zinc, tin, antimony, tungsten, gold, mercury, and lead, and they have been found on either the inside or outside of the shards.

Most of them are not surprising for an alchemist’s laboratory. Gold and mercury were — at least among the upper echelons of society — commonly known and used against a wide range of diseases.

“But tungsten is very mysterious. Tungsten had not even been described at that time, so what should we infer from its presence on a shard from Tycho Brahe’s alchemy workshop?,” said Kaare Lund Rasmussen.

Tungsten was first described and produced in pure form more than 180 years later by the Swedish chemist Carl Wilhelm Scheele. Tungsten occurs naturally in certain minerals, and perhaps the element found its way to Tycho Brahe’s laboratory through one of these minerals. In the laboratory, the mineral might have undergone some processing that separated the tungsten, without Tycho Brahe ever realizing it.

However, there is also another possibility that Professor Kaare Lund Rasmussen emphasizes has no evidence whatsoever — but which could be plausible.

Already in the first half of the 1500s, the German mineralogist Georgius Agricola described something strange in tin ore from Saxony, which caused problems when he tried to smelt tin. Agricola called this strange substance in the tin ore “Wolfram” (German for Wolf’s froth, later renamed to tungsten in English).

“Maybe Tycho Brahe had heard about this and thus knew of tungsten’s existence. But this is not something we know or can say based on the analyses I have done. It is merely a possible theoretical explanation for why we find tungsten in the samples,” said Kaare Lund Rasmussen.

Tycho Brahe belonged to the branch of alchemists who, inspired by the German physician Paracelsus, tried to develop medicine for various diseases of the time: plague, syphilis, leprosy, fever, stomach aches, etc. But he distanced himself from the branch that tried to create gold from less valuable minerals and metals.

In line with the other medical alchemists of the time, he kept his recipes close to his chest and shared them only with a few selected individuals, such as his patron, Emperor Rudolph II, who allegedly received Tycho Brahe’s prescriptions for plague medicine.

We know that Tycho Brahe’s plague medicine was complicated to produce. It contained theriac, which was one of the standard remedies for almost everything at the time and could have up to 60 ingredients, including snake flesh and opium. It also contained copper or iron vitriol (sulphates), various oils, and herbs.

After various filtrations and distillations, the first of Brahe’s three recipes against plague was obtained. This could be made even more potent by adding tinctures of, for example, coral, sapphires, hyacinths, or potable gold.

“It may seem strange that Tycho Brahe was involved in both astronomy and alchemy, but when one understands his worldview, it makes sense. He believed that there were obvious connections between the heavenly bodies, earthly substances, and the body’s organs. Thus, the Sun, gold, and the heart were connected, and the same applied to the Moon, silver, and the brain; Jupiter, tin, and the liver; Venus, copper, and the kidneys; Saturn, lead, and the spleen; Mars, iron, and the gallbladder; and Mercury, mercury, and the lungs. Minerals and gemstones could also be linked to this system, so emeralds, for example, belonged to Mercury,” explained Poul Grinder-Hansen.

Kaare Lund Rasmussen has previously analyzed hair and bones from Tycho Brahe and found, among other elements, gold. This could indicate that Tycho Brahe himself had taken medicine that contained potable gold.



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Nitrogen emissions have a net cooling effect: But researchers warn against a climate solution

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Northern Hemisphere summers may last nearly half the year by 2100


An international team of researchers has found that nitrogen emissions from fertilisers and fossil fuels have a net cooling effect on the climate. But they warn increasing atmospheric nitrogen has further damaging effects on the environment, calling for an urgent reduction in greenhouse gas emissions to halt global warming.

Published today in Nature, the paper found that reactive nitrogen released in the environment through human activities cools the climate by minus 0.34 watts per square metre. While global warming would have advanced further without the input of human-generated nitrogen, the amount would not offset the level of greenhouse gasses heating the atmosphere.

The paper was led by the Max Planck Institute in Germany and included authors from the University of Sydney. It comes one day after new data from the European Union’s Copernicus Climate Change Service indicated that Sunday, 21 July was the hottest day recorded in recent history.

The net cooling effect occurs in four ways:

  • Short-lived nitrogen oxides produced by the combustion of fossil fuels pollute the atmosphere by forming fine suspended particles which shield sunlight, in turn cooling the climate;

  • ammonia (a nitrogen and hydrogen-based compound) released into the atmosphere from the application of manure and artificial fertilisers has a similar effect;

  • nitrogen applied to crops allows plants to grow more abundantly, absorbing more CO2 from the atmosphere, enabling a cooling effect;

  • nitrogen oxides also play a role in the breakdown of atmospheric methane, a potent greenhouse gas.

The researchers warned that increasing atmospheric nitrogen was not a solution for combatting climate change.

“Nitrogen fertilisers pollute water and nitrogen oxides from fossil fuels pollute the air. Therefore, increasing rates of nitrogen in the atmosphere to combat climate change is not an acceptable compromise, nor is it a solution,” said Professor Federico Maggi from the University of Sydney’s School of Civil Engineering.

Sönke Zaehle from the Max Planck Institute said: “This may sound like good news, but you have to bear in mind that nitrogen emissions have many harmful effects, for example on health, biodiversity and the ozone layer. The current findings, therefore, are no reason to gloss over the harmful effects, let alone see additional nitrogen input as a means of combatting global warming.”

Elemental nitrogen, which makes up around 78 percent of the air, is climate-neutral, but other reactive nitrogen compounds can have direct or indirect effects on the global climate — sometimes warming and at other times cooling. Nitrous oxide (N2O) is an almost 300 times more potent greenhouse gas than CO2. Other forms of nitrogen stimulate the formation of ozone in the troposphere, which is a potent greenhouse gas and enhances global warming.

Professor Maggi said the research was important as it helped the team gain an understanding of the net-effect of the distribution of nitrogen emissions from agriculture.

“This work is an extraordinary example of how complex interactions at planetary scales cannot be captured with simplistic assessment tools. It shows the importance of developing mathematical models that can show the emergence of nonlinear — or unproportional — effects across soil, land, and atmosphere,” he said.

“Even if it appears counter-intuitive, reactive nitrogen introduced in the environment, mostly as agricultural fertilisers, can reduce total warming. However, this is minor compared with the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions required to keep the planet within safe and just operational boundaries.

“New generation computational tools are helping drive new learnings in climate change science, but understanding is not enough — we must act with great urgency to reduce greenhouse gas emissions.”

Gaining a holistic understanding of the impacts of nitrogen

The scientists determined the overall impact of nitrogen from human sources by first analysing the quantities of the various nitrogen compounds that end up in soil, water and air.

They then fed this data into models that depict the global nitrogen cycle and the effects on the carbon cycle, for example the stimulation of plant growth and ultimately the CO2 and methane content of the atmosphere. From the results of these simulations, they used another atmospheric chemistry model to calculate the effect of man-made nitrogen emissions on radiative forcing, that is the radiant energy that hits one square metre of the Earth’s surface per unit of time.



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