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Top 10 climate science insights unveiled

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Top 10 climate science insights unveiled


The report equips policymakers with the latest and most pivotal climate science research from the previous 18 months, synthesised to help inform negotiations at COP28 and policy implementation through 2024 and beyond. Simon Stiell, the UNFCCC Executive Secretary says: “The 10 New Insights in Climate Science report provides an essential tool for decision makers at a critical time in the climate calendar each year. Scientific findings from reports like these should inform the ambitious and evidence-based action plans needed in this critical decade of accelerated climate action.”

The 10 full list of insights:

  • Overshooting 1.5°C is fast becoming inevitable. Minimising the magnitude and duration of overshoot is essential.
  • A rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out is required to stay within the Paris Agreement target range.
  • Robust policies are critical to attain the scale needed for effective carbon dioxide removal (CDR).
  • Over-reliance on natural carbon sinks is a risky strategy; their future contribution is uncertain.
  • Joint governance is necessary to address the interlinked climate and biodiversity emergencies.
  • Compound events amplify climate risks and increase their uncertainty.
  • Mountain glacier loss is accelerating.
  • Human immobility in areas with climate risks is increasing.
  • New tools to operationalise justice enable more effective climate adaptation.
  • Reforming food systems can contribute to just climate action.

Professor Laura Pereira from the Wits Global Change Institute, who contributed to the report and who is presenting at COP28 says: “Given the lack of mitigation action to date, inadequate climate commitments by developed countries, and a development model that remains coupled to carbon emissions, exceeding 1.5C is indeed fast becoming inevitable (Insight 1). However, now is not the time to succumb to a feeling of hopelessness in the face of powerful drivers leading the world towards the edge of a precipice that will see countless lives lost, homes and ancestral lands destroyed, and species never to be seen again. Rather, this is the time to find the transformative pathways that are needed to get onto a better trajectory for people and planet.”

The scientific insights of the report function as indispensable evidence for decision makers in business and policy, equipping them with the latest climate science to facilitate informed, effective decision-making on holistic climate and nature solutions, especially against the backdrop of the inaugural Global Stocktake at COP28, which underscores the pressing need for transformative actions to fulfil the Paris Agreement’s ambitions.

The report findings underscore the looming inevitability of overshooting the Paris Agreement’s 1.5°C global warming target, emphasising the urgency of a rapid and managed fossil fuel phase-out.

Pereira comments:”Some of the other insights offer important aspects that need to be considered as we confront this challenge head-on. Insight 5 emphasises how the climate and biodiversity crises are fundamentally interconnected and have to be addressed together. Insight 10 talks to the critical need for JUST food system transformations that can contribute to climate action, whilst insight 9 puts justice at the centre of operationalising climate adaptation, which is of critical in developing countries that sit at the forefront of climate injustices. In the African context, it’s also important to highlight that there is a lot of emphasis on carbon removal as an important mechanism for staying within 1.5 degrees (insight 3), but as insight 4 shows relying on natural carbon sinks is risky. ‘Natural’ climate solutions such as planting trees that sequester carbon needs to be done very carefully because of the potential for undermining ecosystems and livelihoods. For example, afforestation in grassy ecosystems (like our grasslands and savanna) might not sequester carbon effectively (as these systems store carbon below ground in the soil rather than aboveground) whilst impacting biodiversity and livelihoods such as pastoralism. So, some important caveats come from taking all of the insights together.”

Prof. Johan Rockström, Director of the Potsdam Institute of Climate Impact Research adds: “Science is clear. COP28 must be the global meeting when the world gets serious about phasing out fossil-fuels. Dubai is the grand mitigation moment for coal, oil and gas, which need to shift from increasing 1%/yr to decreasing globally by at least 5 %/yr, and for nature by protecting remaining carbon sinks and stocks in ecosystems, plus building resilience and new carbon sinks in agriculture. So far, we have failed on both nature and energy, taking us on a dangerous path towards losing sight of the Paris Agreement target — the 1.5°C biophysical limit.”

The report also highlights the need for robust policies to attain the scale needed for effective complementary technology solutions, such as carbon dioxide removal (CDR), especially amidst emerging concerns over the future of land and ocean carbon sinks.

Dr Oliver Geden, Senior Fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs and IPCC WG III Vice-Chair says: “While not a replacement for rapid and deep emissions reductions, Carbon Dioxide Removal (CDR) will be necessary to deal with hard-to-eliminate emissions and eventually to reduce the global temperature. Current CDR is predominantly forest-based, but rapid acceleration and deployment at scale of other CDR methods with permanent CO2 removal is required, supported by stronger governance and better monitoring.”

The report spotlights the urgent need for enhanced just climate adaptation strategies that proactively address simultaneous interconnected extreme events and ensure resilience for the most vulnerable. It also accentuates the critical role of food systems in climate action, which are currently responsible for approximately one third of global greenhouse gas emissions. It advocates for the rectification of existing inequalities and emphasises that policies must be adapted to regional and sociocultural contexts, to enable the establishment of just, low-carbon food systems.

As Dr Aditi Mukherji, Director, Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Impact Area Platform CGIAR, explains: “The intimate links between climate change mitigation and adaptation, biodiversity conservation, and broader societal needs, including food security, requires transformative change in how we jointly govern socio-ecological systems at all scales. Most importantly, due to the growing risks of food insecurity, policies and solutions must be designed and implemented with those who suffer the most.”

The 10 New Insights in Climate Science series, launched with the UNFCCC at the COPs since 2017, is a collaborative initiative of Future Earth, the Earth League and the World Climate Research Programme, synthesising the latest developments in climate change research. This year’s report represents the collective efforts of 67 leading researchers from 24 countries.

Dr Wendy Broadgate, Global Hub Director, Future Earth, concludes: “Science shows that we are heading for overshooting 1.5°C degrees. Minimising this overshoot is critical if we want to reduce risks to societies all over the world. COP28 must be the inflection point where collective action to phase out fossil fuels gathers pace.”



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Early dark energy could resolve cosmology’s two biggest puzzles

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A new study by MIT physicists proposes that a mysterious force known as early dark energy could solve two of the biggest puzzles in cosmology and fill in some major gaps in our understanding of how the early universe evolved.

One puzzle in question is the “Hubble tension,” which refers to a mismatch in measurements of how fast the universe is expanding. The other involves observations of numerous early, bright galaxies that existed at a time when the early universe should have been much less populated.

Now, the MIT team has found that both puzzles could be resolved if the early universe had one extra, fleeting ingredient: early dark energy. Dark energy is an unknown form of energy that physicists suspect is driving the expansion of the universe today. Early dark energy is a similar, hypothetical phenomenon that may have made only a brief appearance, influencing the expansion of the universe in its first moments before disappearing entirely.

Some physicists have suspected that early dark energy could be the key to solving the Hubble tension, as the mysterious force could accelerate the early expansion of the universe by an amount that would resolve the measurement mismatch.

The MIT researchers have now found that early dark energy could also explain the baffling number of bright galaxies that astronomers have observed in the early universe. In their new study, reported in the Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, the team modeled the formation of galaxies in the universe’s first few hundred million years. When they incorporated a dark energy component only in that earliest sliver of time, they found the number of galaxies that arose from the primordial environment bloomed to fit astronomers’ observations.

You have these two looming open-ended puzzles,” says study co-author Rohan Naidu, a postdoc in MIT’s Kavli Institute for Astrophysics and Space Research. “We find that in fact, early dark energy is a very elegant and sparse solution to two of the most pressing problems in cosmology.”

The study’s co-authors include lead author and Kavli postdoc Xuejian (Jacob) Shen, and MIT professor of physics Mark Vogelsberger, along with Michael Boylan-Kolchin at the University of Texas at Austin, and Sandro Tacchella at the University of Cambridge.

Big city lights

Based on standard cosmological and galaxy formation models, the universe should have taken its time spinning up the first galaxies. It would have taken billions of years for primordial gas to coalesce into galaxies as large and bright as the Milky Way.

But in 2023, NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope (JWST) made a startling observation. With an ability to peer farther back in time than any observatory to date, the telescope uncovered a surprising number of bright galaxies as large as the modern Milky Way within the first 500 million years, when the universe was just 3 percent of its current age.

“The bright galaxies that JWST saw would be like seeing a clustering of lights around big cities, whereas theory predicts something like the light around more rural settings like Yellowstone National Park,” Shen says. “And we don’t expect that clustering of light so early on.”

For physicists, the observations imply that there is either something fundamentally wrong with the physics underlying the models or a missing ingredient in the early universe that scientists have not accounted for. The MIT team explored the possibility of the latter, and whether the missing ingredient might be early dark energy.

Physicists have proposed that early dark energy is a sort of antigravitational force that is turned on only at very early times. This force would counteract gravity’s inward pull and accelerate the early expansion of the universe, in a way that would resolve the mismatch in measurements. Early dark energy, therefore, is considered the most likely solution to the Hubble tension.

Galaxy skeleton

The MIT team explored whether early dark energy could also be the key to explaining the unexpected population of large, bright galaxies detected by JWST. In their new study, the physicists considered how early dark energy might affect the early structure of the universe that gave rise to the first galaxies. They focused on the formation of dark matter halos — regions of space where gravity happens to be stronger, and where matter begins to accumulate.

“We believe that dark matter halos are the invisible skeleton of the universe,” Shen explains. “Dark matter structures form first, and then galaxies form within these structures. So, we expect the number of bright galaxies should be proportional to the number of big dark matter halos.”

The team developed an empirical framework for early galaxy formation, which predicts the number, luminosity, and size of galaxies that should form in the early universe, given some measures of “cosmological parameters.” Cosmological parameters are the basic ingredients, or mathematical terms, that describe the evolution of the universe.

Physicists have determined that there are at least six main cosmological parameters, one of which is the Hubble constant — a term that describes the universe’s rate of expansion. Other parameters describe density fluctuations in the primordial soup, immediately after the Big Bang, from which dark matter halos eventually form.

The MIT team reasoned that if early dark energy affects the universe’s early expansion rate, in a way that resolves the Hubble tension, then it could affect the balance of the other cosmological parameters, in a way that might increase the number of bright galaxies that appear at early times. To test their theory, they incorporated a model of early dark energy (the same one that happens to resolve the Hubble tension) into an empirical galaxy formation framework to see how the earliest dark matter structures evolve and give rise to the first galaxies.

“What we show is, the skeletal structure of the early universe is altered in a subtle way where the amplitude of fluctuations goes up, and you get bigger halos, and brighter galaxies that are in place at earlier times, more so than in our more vanilla models,” Naidu says. “It means things were more abundant, and more clustered in the early universe.”

“A priori, I would not have expected the abundance of JWST’s early bright galaxies to have anything to do with early dark energy, but their observation that EDE pushes cosmological parameters in a direction that boosts the early-galaxy abundance is interesting,” says Marc Kamionkowski, professor of theoretical physics at Johns Hopkins University, who was not involved with the study. “I think more work will need to be done to establish a link between early galaxies and EDE, but regardless of how things turn out, it’s a clever — and hopefully ultimately fruitful — thing to try.”

We demonstrated the potential of early dark energy as a unified solution to the two major issues faced by cosmology. This might be an evidence for its existence if the observational findings of JWST get further consolidated,” Vogelsberger concludes. “In the future, we can incorporate this into large cosmological simulations to see what detailed predictions we get.”

This research was supported, in part, by NASA and the National Science Foundation.



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Plant-derived secondary organic aerosols can act as mediators of plant-plant interactions

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A new study published in Science reveals that plant-derived secondary organic aerosols (SOAs) can act as mediators of plant-plant interactions. This research was conducted through the cooperation of chemical ecologists, plant ecophysiologists and atmospheric physicists at the University of Eastern Finland.

It is well known that plants release volatile organic compounds (VOCs) into the atmosphere when damaged by herbivores. These VOCs play a crucial role in plant-plant interactions, whereby undamaged plants may detect warning signals from their damaged neighbours and prepare their defences. “Reactive plant VOCs undergo oxidative chemical reactions, resulting in the formation of secondary organic aerosols (SOAs). We wondered whether the ecological functions mediated by VOCs persist after they are oxidated to form SOAs,” said Dr. Hao Yu, formerly a PhD student at UEF, but now at the University of Bern.

The study showed that Scots pine seedlings, when damaged by large pine weevils, release VOCs that activate defences in nearby plants of the same species. Interestingly, the biological activity persisted after VOCs were oxidized to form SOAs. The results indicated that the elemental composition and quantity of SOAs likely determines their biological functions.

“A key novelty of the study is the finding that plants adopt subtly different defence strategies when receiving signals as VOCs or as SOAs, yet they exhibit similar degrees of resistance to herbivore feeding,” said Professor James Blande, head of the Environmental Ecology Research Group. This observation opens up the possibility that plants have sophisticated sensing systems that enable them to tailor their defences to information derived from different types of chemical cue.

“Considering the formation rate of SOAs from their precursor VOCs, their longer lifetime compared to VOCs, and the atmospheric air mass transport, we expect that the ecologically effective distance for interactions mediated by SOAs is longer than that for plant interactions mediated by VOCs,” said Professor Annele Virtanen, head of the Aerosol Physics Research Group. This could be interpreted as plants being able to detect cues representing close versus distant threats from herbivores.

The study is expected to open up a whole new complex research area to environmental ecologists and their collaborators, which could lead to new insights on the chemical cues structuring interactions between plants.



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Folded or cut, this lithium-sulfur battery keeps going

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Most rechargeable batteries that power portable devices, such as toys, handheld vacuums and e-bikes, use lithium-ion technology. But these batteries can have short lifetimes and may catch fire when damaged. To address stability and safety issues, researchers reporting in ACS Energy Letters have designed a lithium-sulfur (Li-S) battery that features an improved iron sulfide cathode. One prototype remains highly stable over 300 charge-discharge cycles, and another provides power even after being folded or cut.

Sulfur has been suggested as a material for lithium-ion batteries because of its low cost and potential to hold more energy than lithium-metal oxides and other materials used in traditional ion-based versions. To make Li-S batteries stable at high temperatures, researchers have previously proposed using a carbonate-based electrolyte to separate the two electrodes (an iron sulfide cathode and a lithium metal-containing anode). However, as the sulfide in the cathode dissolves into the electrolyte, it forms an impenetrable precipitate, causing the cell to quickly lose capacity. Liping Wang and colleagues wondered if they could add a layer between the cathode and electrolyte to reduce this corrosion without reducing functionality and rechargeability.

The team coated iron sulfide cathodes in different polymers and found in initial electrochemical performance tests that polyacrylic acid (PAA) performed best, retaining the electrode’s discharge capacity after 300 charge-discharge cycles. Next, the researchers incorporated a PAA-coated iron sulfide cathode into a prototype battery design, which also included a carbonate-based electrolyte, a lithium metal foil as an ion source, and a graphite-based anode. They produced and then tested both pouch cell and coin cell battery prototypes.

After more than 100 charge-discharge cycles, Wang and colleagues observed no substantial capacity decay in the pouch cell. Additional experiments showed that the pouch cell still worked after being folded and cut in half. The coin cell retained 72% of its capacity after 300 charge-discharge cycles. They next applied the polymer coating to cathodes made from other metals, creating lithium-molybdenum and lithium-vanadium batteries. These cells also had stable capacity over 300 charge-discharge cycles. Overall, the results indicate that coated cathodes could produce not only safer Li-S batteries with long lifespans, but also efficient batteries with other metal sulfides, according to Wang’s team.

The authors acknowledge funding from the National Natural Science Foundation of China; the Natural Science Foundation of Sichuan, China; and the Beijing National Laboratory for Condensed Matter Physics.



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