Solar Energy

Study reveals plunge in lithium-ion battery costs

Published

4 years ago

March 24, 2021

sarosh

Study reveals plunge in lithium-ion battery costs

The cost of the rechargeable lithium-ion batteries used for phones, laptops, and cars has fallen dramatically over the last three decades, and has been a major driver of the rapid growth of those technologies. But attempting to quantify that cost decline has produced ambiguous and conflicting results that have hampered attempts to project the technology’s future or devise useful policies and research priorities.

Now, MIT researchers have carried out an exhaustive analysis of the studies that have looked at the decline in the prices these batteries, which are the dominant rechargeable technology in today’s world. The new study looks back over three decades, including analyzing the original underlying datasets and documents whenever possible, to arrive at a clear picture of the technology’s trajectory.

The researchers found that the cost of these batteries has dropped by 97 percent since they were first commercially introduced in 1991. This rate of improvement is much faster than many analysts had claimed and is comparable to that of solar photovoltaic panels, which some had considered to be an exceptional case. The new findings are reported today in the journal Energy and Environmental Science, in a paper by MIT postdoc Micah Ziegler and Associate Professor Jessika Trancik.

While it’s clear that there have been dramatic cost declines in some clean-energy technologies such as solar and wind, Trancik says, when they started to look into the decline in prices for lithium-ion batteries, “we saw that there was substantial disagreement as to how quickly the costs of these technologies had come down.” Similar disagreements showed up in tracing other important aspects of battery development, such as the ever-improving energy density (energy stored within a given volume) and specific energy (energy stored within a given mass).

“These trends are so consequential for getting us to where we are right now, and also for thinking about what could happen in the future,” says Trancik, who is an associate professor in MIT’s Institute for Data, Systems and Society. While it was common knowledge that the decline in battery costs was an enabler of the recent growth in sales of electric vehicles, for example, it was unclear just how great that decline had been.

Through this detailed analysis, she says, “we were able to confirm that yes, lithium-ion battery technologies have improved in terms of their costs, at rates that are comparable to solar energy technology, and specifically photovoltaic modules, which are often held up as kind of the gold standard in clean energy innovation.””

It may seem odd that there was such great uncertainty and disagreement about how much lithium-ion battery costs had declined, and what factors accounted for it, but in fact much of the information is in the form of closely held corporate data that is difficult for researchers to access.

Most lithium-ion batteries are not sold directly to consumers – you can’t run down to your typical corner drugstore to pick up a replacement battery for your iPhone, your PC, or your electric car. Instead, manufacturers buy lithium-ion batteries and build them into electronics and cars. Large companies like Apple or Tesla buy batteries by the millions, or manufacture them themselves, for prices that are negotiated or internally accounted for but never publicly disclosed.

In addition to helping to boost the ongoing electrification of transportation, further declines in lithium-ion battery costs could potentially also increase the batteries’ usage in stationary applications as a way of compensating for the intermittent supply of clean energy sources such as solar and wind. Both applications could play a significant role in helping to curb the world’s emissions of climate-altering greenhouse gases.

“”I can’t overstate the importance of these trends in clean energy innovation for getting us to where we are right now, where it starts to look like we could see rapid electrification of vehicles and we are seeing the rapid growth of renewable energy technologies,” Trancik says. “”Of course, there’s so much more to do to address climate change, but this has really been a game changer.””

The new findings are not just a matter of retracing the history of battery development, but of helping to guide the future, Ziegler points out. Combing all of the published literature on the subject of the cost reductions in lithium-ion cells, he found “very different measures of the historical improvement. And across a variety of different papers, researchers were using these trends to make suggestions about how to further reduce costs of lithium-ion technologies or when they might meet cost targets.”

But because the underlying data varied so much, “the recommendations that the researchers were making could be quite different.” Some studies suggested that lithium-ion batteries would not fall in cost quickly enough for certain applications, while others were much more optimistic. Such differences in data can ultimately have a real impact on the setting of research priorities and government incentives.

The researchers dug into the original sources of the published data, in some cases finding that certain primary data had been used in multiple studies that were later cited as separate sources, or that the original data sources had been lost along the way. And while most studies have focused only on the cost, Ziegler says it became clear that such a one-dimensional analysis might underestimate how quickly lithium-ion technologies improved; in addition to cost, weight and volume are also key factors for both vehicles and portable electronics. So, the team added a second track to the study, analyzing the improvements in these parameters as well.

“Lithium-ion batteries were not adopted because they were the least expensive technology at the time,” Ziegler says. “There were less expensive battery technologies available. Lithium-ion technology was adopted because it allows you to put portable electronics into your hand, because it allows you to make power tools that last longer and have more power, and it allows us to build cars” that can provide adequate driving range. “It felt like just looking at dollars per kilowatt-hour was only telling part of the story,” he says.

That broader analysis helps to define what may be possible in the future, he adds: “We’re saying that lithium-ion technologies might improve more quickly for certain applications than would be projected by just looking at one measure of performance. By looking at multiple measures, you get essentially a clearer picture of the improvement rate, and this suggests that they could maybe improve more rapidly for applications where the restrictions on mass and volume are relaxed.”

Trancik adds the new study can play an important role in energy-related policymaking. “Published data trends on the few clean technologies that have seen major cost reductions over time, wind, solar, and now lithium-ion batteries, tend to be referenced over and over again, and not only in academic papers but in policy documents and industry reports,” she says.

“Many important climate policy conclusions are based on these few trends. For this reason, it is important to get them right. There’s a real need to treat the data with care, and to raise our game overall in dealing with technology data and tracking these trends.”

“”Battery costs determine price parity of electric vehicles with internal combustion engine vehicles,” says Venkat Viswanathan, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at Carnegie Mellon University, who was not associated with this work. “Thus, projecting battery cost declines is probably one of the most critical challenges in ensuring an accurate understanding of adoption of electric vehicles.”

Viswanathan adds that “the finding that cost declines may occur faster than previously thought will enable broader adoption, increasing volumes, and leading to further cost declines. … The datasets curated, analyzed and released with this paper will have a lasting impact on the community.”

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Solar Energy

Sandia evaluates heat shields for Mars Sample Return and Titan missions

Published

2 days ago

October 16, 2024

sarosh

Sandia evaluates heat shields for Mars Sample Return and Titan missions

by Clarence Oxford

Los Angeles CA (SPX) Oct 16, 2024

Sandia National Laboratories’ National Solar Thermal Test Facility is utilizing solar energy to simulate the intense heat experienced during atmospheric reentry and hypersonic flight. The latest tests aim to support NASA missions, including the Mars Sample Return campaign, a joint effort with the European Space Agency to bring Martian rock samples to Earth for analysis. These samples could reveal evidence of ancient life and aid preparations for future human missions to Mars.

As part of the Mars Sample Return mission, a Sample Retrieval Lander would carry the heaviest payload ever sent to Mars, along with a rocket for launching the collected samples into Martian orbit. Heat shield materials for the lander recently underwent testing at Sandia, said Sandia engineer and test director Ken Armijo. “This would be the first mission to return rocks from Mars to Earth; it’s got a bigger payload,” Armijo explained. “The heavier the payload and the bigger the entry vehicle, the hotter the vehicle gets during atmospheric entry, and the better the heat shield needs to be.”

Sandia’s solar testing facility uses hundreds of heliostat mirrors to focus sunlight on samples up to three feet wide, simulating atmospheric conditions on different planets. Unlike arc jets and lasers, which consume significant power, this approach saves between 15,000 to 60,000 kilowatts per test, equivalent to running 5,000 to 20,000 clothes dryers simultaneously.

The facility’s solar power tower, 200 feet tall and equipped with 212 heliostats, provides a unique environment for testing materials under high solar flux and heat. “We have high flux and high flux distribution on the Solar Tower,” said Armijo. The facility can simulate hypersonic flight conditions and accommodate large test samples, including full aircraft sections. Sunlight is concentrated up to 3,500 times its normal intensity, allowing precise control over heat exposure.

Compared to the $100,000-per-day cost of arc jet testing and the $150,000-per-day cost of laser testing, solar testing costs about $25,000 per day, Armijo noted. The intensity of sunlight can be adjusted by varying the number of heliostats focused on the sample, mimicking different reentry conditions. NASA’s lead engineer for the Sample Retrieval Lander’s heat shield, Brandon Smith, commented, “Sandia’s ability to test at this size nicely complements our other test facilities.”

Testing also supports NASA’s Dragonfly mission to Titan, Saturn’s largest moon, with heat shield materials made from Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator, developed at NASA’s Ames Research Center. Previously used in missions like Stardust and Mars 2020, the material was tested on two-foot-wide samples at Sandia. The facility’s capability to test larger samples allowed NASA to simulate the stress and strain experienced during atmospheric entry.

Dragonfly, a rotorcraft designed to explore Titan’s methane-rich atmosphere, faces unique challenges due to Titan’s dense atmosphere, which is four times thicker than Earth’s. To recreate the thermal conditions of Martian and Titan atmospheric entry, nitrogen gas is blown over the heat shield samples during tests. A newly installed gas line running from the base to the top of the power tower ensures adequate gas flow, said Armijo.

Daniel Ray, a mechanical technologist at Sandia, was responsible for setting up the gas line and addressing issues during tests. “My role on every project is to make it work,” Ray said. He resolved an issue with the carbon felt catching fire by designing ceramic shields to protect the system.

In 2022, Sandia also supported the Applied Physics Laboratory’s tests on a heat exchanger prototype intended for future spacecraft. The prototype endured light levels equivalent to 2,000 suns, reaching temperatures of 3,100 degrees Fahrenheit, demonstrating its ability to withstand the intense heat of a close solar flyby.

The facility’s history includes various aerospace projects, such as testing radar protection domes and evaluating materials for space shuttles and military aircraft. Sandia has refined its solar testing methods over the years, said Armijo. “Because we can dial-in the profiles, we have more confidence that it’s going to survive and function well during a mission. Having confidence that it will make it to Mars, land and pick up the rocks safely is important.”

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Solar Energy

Computer simulations offer new insights into enhancing solar cell materials

Published

2 days ago

October 16, 2024

sarosh

Computer simulations offer new insights into enhancing solar cell materials

by Robert Schreiber

Berlin, Germany (SPX) Oct 16, 2024

Researchers from Chalmers University of Technology in Sweden have made progress in understanding halide perovskites, a promising class of materials for solar cells. These materials could serve as an efficient and cost-effective alternative to traditional silicon-based cells, but they face challenges with stability. The new insights are expected to aid the development of more reliable and efficient solar cells, key components in the transition to sustainable energy.

Halide perovskites refer to a group of materials recognized for their potential in flexible, lightweight solar cells and various optical applications, such as LEDs. They exhibit high efficiency in light absorption and emission, making them suitable for next-generation solar technologies. However, understanding the causes of rapid degradation remains a hurdle in optimizing these materials.

Advanced computer simulations reveal material behavior

The research team employed advanced computer simulations and machine learning to study 2D perovskite materials, which are typically more stable than their 3D counterparts. The findings, published in *ACS Energy Letters*, provide new insights into the factors that influence the materials’ properties.

“By mapping out the material in computer simulations and subjecting it to different scenarios, we can draw conclusions about how the atoms in the material react when exposed to heat, light, and so on,” explained Professor Paul Erhart from the research team. “We now have a microscopic description of the material that is independent of what experiments have shown, but which we can show to lead to the same behavior as the experiments.”

Simulations allow researchers to analyze material behaviors at a detailed level, offering a unique view that complements experimental data. This approach has made it possible to observe what leads to specific outcomes in experiments, deepening the understanding of 2D perovskites’ functionality.

Machine learning enables broader and deeper analysis

The integration of machine learning techniques allowed the researchers to study larger systems over longer durations than was previously feasible.

“This has given us both a much broader overview than before, but also the ability to study materials in much more detail,” said Associate Professor Julia Wiktor. “We can see that in these very thin layers of material, each layer behaves differently, and that’s something that is very difficult to detect experimentally.”

The composition and interaction of layers in 2D perovskites

2D perovskites consist of inorganic layers separated by organic molecules, which play a crucial role in determining the material’s stability and optical properties. Understanding the atomic movements within these layers and their connection to the organic linkers is essential for designing efficient devices.

“In 2D perovskites, you have perovskite layers linked with organic molecules. What we have discovered is that you can directly control how atoms in the surface layers move through the choice of the organic linkers,” noted Erhart. “This movement is crucial to the optical properties, creating a domino effect that extends deep inside the material.”

Future research directions

The study’s results pave the way for developing more stable and efficient optoelectronic devices by identifying which molecular configurations could enhance performance. The researchers aim to extend their work to more complex systems, focusing on interfaces that are essential for device functionality.

“Our next step is to move to even more complex systems and in particular interfaces that are fundamental for the function of devices,” Wiktor added.

Research Report:Impact of Organic Spacers and Dimensionality on Templating of Halide Perovskites

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Solar Energy

Bright future for solar panels and screens with new nanocrystal research

Published

2 days ago

October 16, 2024

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Bright future for solar panels and screens with new nanocrystal research

by Simon Mansfield

Sydney, Australia (SPX) Oct 16, 2024

Curtin University researchers have made a significant discovery that could enhance everyday technology, from TV screens to solar panels and medical diagnostics. The study, led by Associate Professor Guohua Jia, revealed how to increase the number of molecules, known as ligands, that adhere to zinc sulfide nanocrystals by manipulating the shape of these tiny particles.

Associate Professor Jia from Curtin’s School of Molecular and Life Sciences explained that ligands are essential for influencing the behavior and performance of zinc sulfide nanocrystals across various applications. “Ligands play an important role in controlling the behaviour and performance of zinc sulfide nanocrystals in various important technologies,” Jia said.

The research found that flatter, more uniform particles, termed nanoplatelets, can accommodate a greater number of tightly bound ligands compared to other shapes such as nanodots and nanorods. “In a discovery that could open new possibilities for developing smarter, more advanced devices, our study found flatter, more even particles called nanoplatelets allow more ligands to attach tightly, compared to other shapes like nanodots and nanorods,” Jia explained.

By tailoring the shapes of these nanocrystals, the researchers were able to enhance their interactions with surrounding environments, boosting the efficiency of a wide range of applications. Jia highlighted that these findings could potentially transform the efficiency and performance of products such as LED lights, screens, solar panels, and medical imaging devices.

The discovery also holds promise for advancing optoelectronic devices, which either generate light or utilize it to perform various functions. “Optoelectronics are important in many modern technologies, including telecommunications, medical devices and energy production,” Jia noted. The ability to control the manipulation of light and electricity is vital for the development of faster, more efficient, and compact electronic systems.

The applications include LEDs used in light bulbs and TV screens, solar cells that convert sunlight into electrical power, photodetectors in cameras and sensors, and laser diodes in fiber-optic communication systems.

Research Report:Deciphering surface ligand density of colloidal semiconductor nanocrystals: Shape matters