Solar Energy

Study reveals plunge in lithium-ion battery costs

Published

4 years ago

March 24, 2021

sarosh

Study reveals plunge in lithium-ion battery costs

The cost of the rechargeable lithium-ion batteries used for phones, laptops, and cars has fallen dramatically over the last three decades, and has been a major driver of the rapid growth of those technologies. But attempting to quantify that cost decline has produced ambiguous and conflicting results that have hampered attempts to project the technology’s future or devise useful policies and research priorities.

Now, MIT researchers have carried out an exhaustive analysis of the studies that have looked at the decline in the prices these batteries, which are the dominant rechargeable technology in today’s world. The new study looks back over three decades, including analyzing the original underlying datasets and documents whenever possible, to arrive at a clear picture of the technology’s trajectory.

The researchers found that the cost of these batteries has dropped by 97 percent since they were first commercially introduced in 1991. This rate of improvement is much faster than many analysts had claimed and is comparable to that of solar photovoltaic panels, which some had considered to be an exceptional case. The new findings are reported today in the journal Energy and Environmental Science, in a paper by MIT postdoc Micah Ziegler and Associate Professor Jessika Trancik.

While it’s clear that there have been dramatic cost declines in some clean-energy technologies such as solar and wind, Trancik says, when they started to look into the decline in prices for lithium-ion batteries, “we saw that there was substantial disagreement as to how quickly the costs of these technologies had come down.” Similar disagreements showed up in tracing other important aspects of battery development, such as the ever-improving energy density (energy stored within a given volume) and specific energy (energy stored within a given mass).

“These trends are so consequential for getting us to where we are right now, and also for thinking about what could happen in the future,” says Trancik, who is an associate professor in MIT’s Institute for Data, Systems and Society. While it was common knowledge that the decline in battery costs was an enabler of the recent growth in sales of electric vehicles, for example, it was unclear just how great that decline had been.

Through this detailed analysis, she says, “we were able to confirm that yes, lithium-ion battery technologies have improved in terms of their costs, at rates that are comparable to solar energy technology, and specifically photovoltaic modules, which are often held up as kind of the gold standard in clean energy innovation.””

It may seem odd that there was such great uncertainty and disagreement about how much lithium-ion battery costs had declined, and what factors accounted for it, but in fact much of the information is in the form of closely held corporate data that is difficult for researchers to access.

Most lithium-ion batteries are not sold directly to consumers – you can’t run down to your typical corner drugstore to pick up a replacement battery for your iPhone, your PC, or your electric car. Instead, manufacturers buy lithium-ion batteries and build them into electronics and cars. Large companies like Apple or Tesla buy batteries by the millions, or manufacture them themselves, for prices that are negotiated or internally accounted for but never publicly disclosed.

In addition to helping to boost the ongoing electrification of transportation, further declines in lithium-ion battery costs could potentially also increase the batteries’ usage in stationary applications as a way of compensating for the intermittent supply of clean energy sources such as solar and wind. Both applications could play a significant role in helping to curb the world’s emissions of climate-altering greenhouse gases.

“”I can’t overstate the importance of these trends in clean energy innovation for getting us to where we are right now, where it starts to look like we could see rapid electrification of vehicles and we are seeing the rapid growth of renewable energy technologies,” Trancik says. “”Of course, there’s so much more to do to address climate change, but this has really been a game changer.””

The new findings are not just a matter of retracing the history of battery development, but of helping to guide the future, Ziegler points out. Combing all of the published literature on the subject of the cost reductions in lithium-ion cells, he found “very different measures of the historical improvement. And across a variety of different papers, researchers were using these trends to make suggestions about how to further reduce costs of lithium-ion technologies or when they might meet cost targets.”

But because the underlying data varied so much, “the recommendations that the researchers were making could be quite different.” Some studies suggested that lithium-ion batteries would not fall in cost quickly enough for certain applications, while others were much more optimistic. Such differences in data can ultimately have a real impact on the setting of research priorities and government incentives.

The researchers dug into the original sources of the published data, in some cases finding that certain primary data had been used in multiple studies that were later cited as separate sources, or that the original data sources had been lost along the way. And while most studies have focused only on the cost, Ziegler says it became clear that such a one-dimensional analysis might underestimate how quickly lithium-ion technologies improved; in addition to cost, weight and volume are also key factors for both vehicles and portable electronics. So, the team added a second track to the study, analyzing the improvements in these parameters as well.

“Lithium-ion batteries were not adopted because they were the least expensive technology at the time,” Ziegler says. “There were less expensive battery technologies available. Lithium-ion technology was adopted because it allows you to put portable electronics into your hand, because it allows you to make power tools that last longer and have more power, and it allows us to build cars” that can provide adequate driving range. “It felt like just looking at dollars per kilowatt-hour was only telling part of the story,” he says.

That broader analysis helps to define what may be possible in the future, he adds: “We’re saying that lithium-ion technologies might improve more quickly for certain applications than would be projected by just looking at one measure of performance. By looking at multiple measures, you get essentially a clearer picture of the improvement rate, and this suggests that they could maybe improve more rapidly for applications where the restrictions on mass and volume are relaxed.”

Trancik adds the new study can play an important role in energy-related policymaking. “Published data trends on the few clean technologies that have seen major cost reductions over time, wind, solar, and now lithium-ion batteries, tend to be referenced over and over again, and not only in academic papers but in policy documents and industry reports,” she says.

“Many important climate policy conclusions are based on these few trends. For this reason, it is important to get them right. There’s a real need to treat the data with care, and to raise our game overall in dealing with technology data and tracking these trends.”

“”Battery costs determine price parity of electric vehicles with internal combustion engine vehicles,” says Venkat Viswanathan, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at Carnegie Mellon University, who was not associated with this work. “Thus, projecting battery cost declines is probably one of the most critical challenges in ensuring an accurate understanding of adoption of electric vehicles.”

Viswanathan adds that “the finding that cost declines may occur faster than previously thought will enable broader adoption, increasing volumes, and leading to further cost declines. … The datasets curated, analyzed and released with this paper will have a lasting impact on the community.”

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Solar Energy

MIT, Harvard and Mass General lead 408 MW green energy push

Published

1 day ago

November 24, 2024

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MIT, Harvard and Mass General lead 408 MW green energy push

by Nicole Morell | MIT Office of Sustainability

Boston MA (SPX) Nov 25, 2024

MIT is co-leading an effort to enable the development of two new large-scale renewable energy projects in regions with carbon-intensive electrical grids: Big Elm Solar in Bell County, Texas, came online this year, and the Bowman Wind Project in Bowman County, North Dakota, is expected to be operational in 2026. Together, they will add a combined 408 megawatts (MW) of new renewable energy capacity to the power grid. This work is a critical part of MIT’s strategy to achieve its goal of net-zero carbon emissions by 2026.

The Consortium for Climate Solutions, which includes MIT and 10 other Massachusetts organizations, seeks to eliminate close to 1 million metric tons of greenhouse gases each year – more than five times the annual direct emissions from MIT’s campus – by committing to purchase an estimated 1.3-million-megawatt hours of new solar and wind electricity generation annually.

“MIT has mobilized on multiple fronts to expedite solutions to climate change,” says Glen Shor, executive vice president and treasurer. “Catalyzing these large-scale renewable projects is an important part of our comprehensive efforts to reduce carbon emissions from generating energy. We are pleased to work in partnership with other local enterprises and organizations to amplify the impact we could achieve individually.”

The two new projects complement MIT’s existing 25-year power purchase agreement established with Summit Farms in 2016, which enabled the construction of a roughly 650-acre, 60 MW solar farm on farmland in North Carolina, leading to the early retirement of a coal-fired plant nearby. Its success has inspired other institutions to implement similar aggregation models.

A collective approach to enable global impact

MIT, Harvard University, and Mass General Brigham formed the consortium in 2020 to provide a structure to accelerate global emissions reductions through the development of large-scale renewable energy projects – accelerating and expanding the impact of each institution’s greenhouse gas reduction initiatives. As the project’s anchors, they collectively procured the largest volume of energy through the aggregation.

The consortium engaged with PowerOptions, a nonprofit energy-buying consortium, which offered its members the opportunity to participate in the projects. The City of Cambridge, Beth Israel Lahey, Boston Children’s Hospital, Dana-Farber Cancer Institute, Tufts University, the Mass Convention Center Authority, the Museum of Fine Arts, and GBH later joined the consortium through PowerOptions.

The consortium vetted over 125 potential projects against its rigorous project evaluation criteria. With faculty and MIT stakeholder input on a short list of the highest-ranking projects, it ultimately chose Bowman Wind and Big Elm Solar. Collectively, these two projects will achieve large greenhouse gas emissions reductions in two of the most carbon-intensive electrical grid regions in the United States and create clean energy generation sources to reduce negative health impacts.

“Enabling these projects in regions where the grids are most carbon-intensive allows them to have the greatest impact. We anticipate these projects will prevent two times more emissions per unit of generated electricity than would a similar-scale project in New England,” explains Vice President for Campus Services and Stewardship Joe Higgins.

By all consortium institutions making significant 15-to-20-year financial commitments to buy electricity, the developer was able to obtain critical external project financing to build the projects. Owned and operated by Apex Clean Energy, the projects will add new renewable electricity to the grid equivalent to powering 130,000 households annually, displacing over 950,000 metric tons of greenhouse gas emissions each year from highly carbon-intensive power plants in the region.

Complementary decarbonization work underway

In addition to investing in offsite renewable energy projects, many consortium members have developed strategies to reduce and eliminate their own direct emissions. At MIT, accomplishing this requires transformative change in how energy is generated, distributed, and used on campus. Efforts underway include the installation of solar panels on campus rooftops that will increase renewable energy generation four-fold by 2026; continuing to transition our heat distribution infrastructure from steam-based to hot water-based; utilizing design and construction that minimizes emissions and increases energy efficiency; employing AI-enabled sensors to optimize temperature set points and reduce energy use in buildings; and converting MIT’s vehicle fleet to all-electric vehicles while adding more electric car charging stations.

The Institute has also upgraded the Central Utilities Plant, which uses advanced co-generation technology to produce power that is up to 20 percent less carbon-intensive than that from the regional power grid. MIT is charting the course toward a next-generation district energy system, with a comprehensive planning initiative to revolutionize its campus energy infrastructure. The effort is exploring leading-edge technology, including industrial-scale heat pumps, geothermal exchange, micro-reactors, bio-based fuels, and green hydrogen derived from renewable sources as solutions to achieve full decarbonization of campus operations by 2050.

“At MIT, we are focused on decarbonizing our own campus as well as the role we can play in solving climate at the largest of scales, including supporting a cleaner grid in line with the call to triple renewables globally by 2030. By enabling these large-scale renewable projects, we can have an immediate and significant impact of reducing emissions through the urgently needed decarbonization of regional power grids,” says Julie Newman, MIT’s director of sustainability.

+ Fast Forward: MIT’s Climate Action Plan for the Decade

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Solar Energy

Engineers develop additive for affordable renewable energy storage

Published

1 day ago

November 24, 2024

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Engineers develop additive for affordable renewable energy storage

by Clarence Oxford

Los Angeles CA (SPX) Nov 25, 2024

Advancing the promise of renewable energy sources like solar and wind, University of Wisconsin – Madison researchers have designed a water-soluble chemical additive to improve bromide-based aqueous flow batteries. This innovation addresses critical challenges in energy storage, paving the way for safer and more cost-effective solutions.

“Bromide-based aqueous flow batteries are a promising solution, but there are many messy electrochemical problems with them. That’s why there’s no real successful bromide-based products today,” said Patrick Sullivan, a UW – Madison PhD graduate in chemistry. “Yet, our one additive can solve so many different problems.”

Sullivan, alongside PhD student Gyohun Choi and Assistant Professor Dawei Feng, engineered the additive to enhance battery performance and efficiency. The team’s findings were published in ‘Nature’ on October 23, 2024.

Aqueous Flow Batteries: A Safer Alternative

While lithium-ion batteries are widely used for grid-scale energy storage, their limitations include safety risks, such as fires and explosions, and reliance on a fragile international supply chain. By contrast, aqueous flow batteries, which use water-based electrolytes, offer scalability, sustainability, and improved safety.

The most established flow batteries rely on expensive and scarce vanadium ions. Bromide, a less costly and more abundant alternative, has similar theoretical performance potential. However, bromide-based batteries face practical obstacles. Bromide ions often escape through the membrane, lowering efficiency, or precipitate into an oily residue that disrupts functionality. Worse, the ions can form toxic bromine gas, raising safety concerns.

Solving Challenges with Molecular Engineering

To tackle these issues, Choi and the team developed over 500 molecular candidates, narrowing them to 13 engineered “soft-hard zwitterionic trappers.” These multifunctional additives proved highly effective in resolving bromide flow battery problems.

The additive encapsulates bromide ions, preventing them from passing through the membrane while maintaining their water solubility. It also stabilizes the ions, avoiding the formation of residue or harmful gases. The results have been remarkable. “Our devices with the additive functioned without decay for almost two months compared to ones without it, which typically fail within a day,” Feng explained.

This improvement significantly extends the operational life of the battery, a key factor for renewable energy storage systems designed for long-term use.

Looking Ahead

Choi plans to delve deeper into the science behind additives for halide flow batteries, while Sullivan, now CEO of renewable energy startup Flux XII, will work on scaling the additive for industrial applications. Early tests indicate the additive is viable for large-scale production.

The innovation marks an important step toward achieving reliable and affordable energy storage solutions, a critical component of the renewable energy future.

Research Report:Soft – hard zwitterionic additives for aqueous halide flow batteries

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Solar Energy

Atomic-6 partners with Starpath Robotics for Lunar Power Tower development

Published

1 day ago

November 24, 2024

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Atomic-6 partners with Starpath Robotics for Lunar Power Tower development

by Erica Marchand

Paris, France (SPX) Nov 25, 2024

Atomic-6 has entered into a development contract with Starpath Robotics to design and build a deployable composite boom for Starpath’s advanced solar power generation system. This collaboration brings together Atomic-6’s innovative composite manufacturing techniques and Starpath’s vision for lunar infrastructure development.

Starpath Robotics is working to establish robotic mining operations on the Moon, aiming to produce hundreds of tons of liquid oxygen annually for use in refueling and space industry applications. Long-term plans include scaling up production to tens of thousands of tons annually to support broader space exploration initiatives.

Saurav Shroff, CEO of Starpath Robotics, emphasized the importance of the project: “The Power Tower’s deployable mast is a challenging component to manufacture. A stiff, reliable, and lightweight mast is important in optimizing power-per-mast and, equally importantly, increasing the visible land area on the Moon that can be serviced by high-data-rate long-range communication systems at the top of the tower. In the not-so-distant future, tens, and then hundreds, and then thousands, of Power Towers establish cislunar capabilities suited for a multiplanetary species. To give a size perspective, the Power Tower will be a colossal structure, equivalent to almost one and a half NBA regulation size basketball courts!”

Atomic-6’s Space Mast technology, offering a 15% increase in specific strength compared to traditional composites, is a key enabler of this initiative. The company’s experience with high-performance composites, demonstrated in USAF STTR projects and its Light Wing solar arrays, positions it as a critical partner in this lunar endeavor.

The collaboration aims to deliver and evaluate a high-performance composite mast for the Power Tower. A successful outcome could lead to a follow-on contract to mass-produce and deploy the system on the Moon, with operational testing anticipated by 2026. This project aligns with Starpath’s mission to cut the costs of deep space missions and supports NASA’s Artemis Program goal of establishing a long-term human presence on the Moon.