Solar Energy

Study reveals plunge in lithium-ion battery costs

Published

3 years ago

March 24, 2021

sarosh

Study reveals plunge in lithium-ion battery costs

The cost of the rechargeable lithium-ion batteries used for phones, laptops, and cars has fallen dramatically over the last three decades, and has been a major driver of the rapid growth of those technologies. But attempting to quantify that cost decline has produced ambiguous and conflicting results that have hampered attempts to project the technology’s future or devise useful policies and research priorities.

Now, MIT researchers have carried out an exhaustive analysis of the studies that have looked at the decline in the prices these batteries, which are the dominant rechargeable technology in today’s world. The new study looks back over three decades, including analyzing the original underlying datasets and documents whenever possible, to arrive at a clear picture of the technology’s trajectory.

The researchers found that the cost of these batteries has dropped by 97 percent since they were first commercially introduced in 1991. This rate of improvement is much faster than many analysts had claimed and is comparable to that of solar photovoltaic panels, which some had considered to be an exceptional case. The new findings are reported today in the journal Energy and Environmental Science, in a paper by MIT postdoc Micah Ziegler and Associate Professor Jessika Trancik.

While it’s clear that there have been dramatic cost declines in some clean-energy technologies such as solar and wind, Trancik says, when they started to look into the decline in prices for lithium-ion batteries, “we saw that there was substantial disagreement as to how quickly the costs of these technologies had come down.” Similar disagreements showed up in tracing other important aspects of battery development, such as the ever-improving energy density (energy stored within a given volume) and specific energy (energy stored within a given mass).

“These trends are so consequential for getting us to where we are right now, and also for thinking about what could happen in the future,” says Trancik, who is an associate professor in MIT’s Institute for Data, Systems and Society. While it was common knowledge that the decline in battery costs was an enabler of the recent growth in sales of electric vehicles, for example, it was unclear just how great that decline had been.

Through this detailed analysis, she says, “we were able to confirm that yes, lithium-ion battery technologies have improved in terms of their costs, at rates that are comparable to solar energy technology, and specifically photovoltaic modules, which are often held up as kind of the gold standard in clean energy innovation.””

It may seem odd that there was such great uncertainty and disagreement about how much lithium-ion battery costs had declined, and what factors accounted for it, but in fact much of the information is in the form of closely held corporate data that is difficult for researchers to access.

Most lithium-ion batteries are not sold directly to consumers – you can’t run down to your typical corner drugstore to pick up a replacement battery for your iPhone, your PC, or your electric car. Instead, manufacturers buy lithium-ion batteries and build them into electronics and cars. Large companies like Apple or Tesla buy batteries by the millions, or manufacture them themselves, for prices that are negotiated or internally accounted for but never publicly disclosed.

In addition to helping to boost the ongoing electrification of transportation, further declines in lithium-ion battery costs could potentially also increase the batteries’ usage in stationary applications as a way of compensating for the intermittent supply of clean energy sources such as solar and wind. Both applications could play a significant role in helping to curb the world’s emissions of climate-altering greenhouse gases.

“”I can’t overstate the importance of these trends in clean energy innovation for getting us to where we are right now, where it starts to look like we could see rapid electrification of vehicles and we are seeing the rapid growth of renewable energy technologies,” Trancik says. “”Of course, there’s so much more to do to address climate change, but this has really been a game changer.””

The new findings are not just a matter of retracing the history of battery development, but of helping to guide the future, Ziegler points out. Combing all of the published literature on the subject of the cost reductions in lithium-ion cells, he found “very different measures of the historical improvement. And across a variety of different papers, researchers were using these trends to make suggestions about how to further reduce costs of lithium-ion technologies or when they might meet cost targets.”

But because the underlying data varied so much, “the recommendations that the researchers were making could be quite different.” Some studies suggested that lithium-ion batteries would not fall in cost quickly enough for certain applications, while others were much more optimistic. Such differences in data can ultimately have a real impact on the setting of research priorities and government incentives.

The researchers dug into the original sources of the published data, in some cases finding that certain primary data had been used in multiple studies that were later cited as separate sources, or that the original data sources had been lost along the way. And while most studies have focused only on the cost, Ziegler says it became clear that such a one-dimensional analysis might underestimate how quickly lithium-ion technologies improved; in addition to cost, weight and volume are also key factors for both vehicles and portable electronics. So, the team added a second track to the study, analyzing the improvements in these parameters as well.

“Lithium-ion batteries were not adopted because they were the least expensive technology at the time,” Ziegler says. “There were less expensive battery technologies available. Lithium-ion technology was adopted because it allows you to put portable electronics into your hand, because it allows you to make power tools that last longer and have more power, and it allows us to build cars” that can provide adequate driving range. “It felt like just looking at dollars per kilowatt-hour was only telling part of the story,” he says.

That broader analysis helps to define what may be possible in the future, he adds: “We’re saying that lithium-ion technologies might improve more quickly for certain applications than would be projected by just looking at one measure of performance. By looking at multiple measures, you get essentially a clearer picture of the improvement rate, and this suggests that they could maybe improve more rapidly for applications where the restrictions on mass and volume are relaxed.”

Trancik adds the new study can play an important role in energy-related policymaking. “Published data trends on the few clean technologies that have seen major cost reductions over time, wind, solar, and now lithium-ion batteries, tend to be referenced over and over again, and not only in academic papers but in policy documents and industry reports,” she says.

“Many important climate policy conclusions are based on these few trends. For this reason, it is important to get them right. There’s a real need to treat the data with care, and to raise our game overall in dealing with technology data and tracking these trends.”

“”Battery costs determine price parity of electric vehicles with internal combustion engine vehicles,” says Venkat Viswanathan, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at Carnegie Mellon University, who was not associated with this work. “Thus, projecting battery cost declines is probably one of the most critical challenges in ensuring an accurate understanding of adoption of electric vehicles.”

Viswanathan adds that “the finding that cost declines may occur faster than previously thought will enable broader adoption, increasing volumes, and leading to further cost declines. … The datasets curated, analyzed and released with this paper will have a lasting impact on the community.”

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Solar Energy

Airbus to Provide Over 200 Sparkwing Solar Arrays for MDA AURORA Satellites

Published

2 days ago

September 17, 2024

sarosh

Airbus to Provide Over 200 Sparkwing Solar Arrays for MDA AURORA Satellites

by Clarence Oxford

Los Angeles CA (SPX) Sep 17, 2024

Airbus has been selected by MDA Space Ltd. (TSX:MDA), a global leader in advanced space technology and services, to supply solar arrays for its MDA AURORA TM software-defined satellite product line. This satellite system aims to expand communication networks across the world by enabling satellite constellations for improved global connectivity.

Under the agreement, Airbus will deliver over 200 Sparkwing solar arrays, which will be manufactured at its high-capacity facility in Leiden, the Netherlands. These solar arrays, the largest Sparkwing version to date, feature two wings with five panels each, covering a total photovoltaic area of more than 30 square meters.

MDA’s AURORA TM supply chain is designed to support Telesat’s Low Earth Orbit (LEO) satellite constellation Lightspeed, an advanced network providing enterprise-class connectivity to customers globally.

“We are delighted to be selected as the supplier of solar arrays to partner with MDA Space for Telesat Lightspeed. Our industrialised Sparkwing solar array product not only meets the demands of this ground-breaking constellation project, but is also tailored to ensure optimal performance in space. The Sparkwing solar arrays are designed for series production, ideally suited for constellations, and we will accordingly contribute to a project enabling space connectivity,” said Rob Postma, Managing Director of Airbus in the Netherlands.

MDA’s AURORA TM satellite product line is designed to address evolving technical and business needs in the satellite industry, providing unmatched flexibility and functionality. This allows operators to significantly improve the performance of satellite constellations while reducing costs and accelerating time to market.

Sparkwing is the first commercially available, off-the-shelf solar array for small satellites. Initially optimized for Low Earth Orbit missions needing power between 100W and 2000W, it offers customers various panel dimensions and configurations. The arrays can be arranged into wings with one to three panels per wing and require minimal integration effort. The product has evolved to meet the growing demands of higher power missions in LEO and beyond.

The Sparkwing product was developed by Airbus in the Netherlands with support from the Netherlands Space Office and ESA.

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Solar Energy

How solar power is keeping one California community alive as the ground shifts

Published

2 days ago

September 17, 2024

sarosh

How solar power is keeping one California community alive as the ground shifts

by Bradley Bartz

Los Angeles CA (SPX) Sep 17, 2024

The cliffs of the Palos Verdes Peninsula have always been stunning, offering sweeping views of the Pacific Ocean. But beneath the natural beauty of Portuguese Bend, a slow and terrifying force is at work. Here, in one of the most geologically unstable areas in California, the ground is in constant motion. The land is slipping into the sea at a rate of one foot per week, threatening homes and lives with every inch. The Portuguese Bend landslide, once a slow-moving anomaly, has accelerated into a full-scale disaster, and the consequences are being felt daily by the residents.

For those of us who call this place home, the landslide is not a hypothetical future threat-it’s a daily reality. The roadways buckle, driveways disappear, and utility lines fail. Southern California Edison (SCE), the local utility provider, announced a sudden shutoff of power and gas to more than 350 homes. In a cruel twist of fate, residents found themselves not only battling the land but also cut off from the essential services that tether them to modern life.

In the midst of this chaos, we at ABC Solar knew something had to be done. Our team has installed over 100 solar and battery systems in the region, but the landslide has turned this work into something more urgent, more vital. It was no longer just about helping homeowners go green-it became about survival.

Our first major site visit was at a Frank Lloyd Wright Jr. home perched above the shifting land. The house, with its futuristic design and sharp, arrow-like roofs, stood defiant against the forces below. Its driveway had become impassable, but the structure remained. We brought in Walrus Portable Battery Systems, each equipped with 30 kWh of storage, and linked them to solar panels. The owners, cut off from traditional power, now had a clean energy source that allowed them to keep the lights on, the fridge cold, and life moving forward.

And this was just the beginning.

As more homes lost power, our team worked around the clock. We deployed Walrus units to homes in the hardest-hit areas and set up temporary energy solutions. In the Sea View neighborhood, we created what nearly became a mini-grid, connecting six homes with 8 solar panels each, along with Walrus battery systems. Each day, we navigated new bumps in the road-literally. The land changed so fast that driving the same road twice meant encountering new twists and turns, fresh reminders of the ground’s instability.

The question that kept coming up wasn’t about the future of energy but the present: “Can I do my laundry today?” With each successful installation, the answer was “Yes.”

At the Portuguese Bend Riding Club, a sprawling horse ranch on Narcissa Drive, the story was much the same. Power was unreliable, and gas was shut off. When we arrived with two portable solar battery generators, it was clear this wasn’t just an inconvenience-it was a matter of safety. We hooked up the systems to power the refrigerators in two apartments and set the stage for a larger, more permanent solution. Then, at noon, Southern California Edison shut off the power to the entire property. But we didn’t miss a beat-the solar batteries took over without a hitch, bringing smiles and relief to everyone on-site.

In moments like this, the gravity of our work hit home. The loud hum of gas generators was everywhere-an unsettling reminder of the fragility of the grid and the pollution that came with it. Our mission became clear: to replace those generators with clean, quiet solar power. The transition wasn’t always easy. On a 100-degree day, when air conditioning was essential for health reasons, our systems had to stretch to their limits. But the Walrus units, backed by solar panels, rose to the challenge.

But this wasn’t just about deploying technology-it was about adapting to a new way of life. Off-grid living was foreign to many, and the psychological adjustment was just as real as the technical one. We saw it at the ranch, where 4 gas generators roared, drowning out thought and peace. But as our systems took over, the noise subsided, and a new quiet emerged. Solar power didn’t just keep the lights on-it restored a sense of normalcy.

In the coming weeks, we’ll be deploying more Sol-Ark 15kW inverters and Briggs and Stratton batteries, creating long-term solutions for homes in the landslide zone. These systems will provide not just backup power but independence-450 amps of clean energy service that can scale as needed. The future we’re building is one where the land may shift, but the power stays on.

As a neighbor in this community and the founder of ABC Solar, I’ve seen firsthand how disaster brings out both the worst and the best in systems. Southern California Edison’s threats to shut down the sewer systems sparked outrage, and rightly so. Luckily, Janice Hahn stepped in, ordering the county to keep the sewers running with generators. But it shouldn’t take a political intervention to keep basic utilities functioning. This is where renewable energy can and must step in-not just in moments of calm but in the thick of crisis.

The reality is stark: the landslide won’t stop. The homes will keep shifting, and the landscape will change. But the people here are resilient. With solar panels on their roofs and batteries in their garages, they are no longer waiting for the lights to flicker out. They are taking control of their power, their future, and their peace of mind.

For now, I roll solar batteries down the street and see the look of relief on my neighbors’ faces as the lights come back on. Each installation is a small victory against forces bigger than us. In the battle between land and life, we’re learning that the key to survival is energy-clean, renewable, and ours to keep.

Bradley Bartz is the founder and president of ABC Solar Incorporated. He lives in Rancho Palos Verdes and has been working in solar energy since 2000.

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Solar Energy

Folded or cut, this lithium-sulfur battery keeps powering devices

Published

2 days ago

September 17, 2024

sarosh

Folded or cut, this lithium-sulfur battery keeps powering devices

by Clarence Oxford

Los Angeles CA (SPX) Sep 16, 2024

Most rechargeable batteries that power portable devices, such as toys, handheld vacuums and e-bikes, use lithium-ion technology. But these batteries can have short lifetimes and may catch fire when damaged. To address stability and safety issues, researchers reporting in ‘ACS Energy Letters’ have designed a lithium-sulfur (Li-S) battery that features an improved iron sulfide cathode. One prototype remains highly stable over 300 charge-discharge cycles, and another provides power even after being folded or cut.

Sulfur has been suggested as a material for lithium-ion batteries because of its low cost and potential to hold more energy than lithium-metal oxides and other materials used in traditional ion-based versions. To make Li-S batteries stable at high temperatures, researchers have previously proposed using a carbonate-based electrolyte to separate the two electrodes (an iron sulfide cathode and a lithium metal-containing anode). However, as the sulfide in the cathode dissolves into the electrolyte, it forms an impenetrable precipitate, causing the cell to quickly lose capacity. Liping Wang and colleagues wondered if they could add a layer between the cathode and electrolyte to reduce this corrosion without reducing functionality and rechargeability.

The team coated iron sulfide cathodes in different polymers and found in initial electrochemical performance tests that polyacrylic acid (PAA) performed best, retaining the electrode’s discharge capacity after 300 charge-discharge cycles. Next, the researchers incorporated a PAA-coated iron sulfide cathode into a prototype battery design, which also included a carbonate-based electrolyte, a lithium metal foil as an ion source, and a graphite-based anode. They produced and then tested both pouch cell and coin cell battery prototypes.

After more than 100 charge-discharge cycles, Wang and colleagues observed no substantial capacity decay in the pouch cell. Additional experiments showed that the pouch cell still worked after being folded and cut in half. The coin cell retained 72% of its capacity after 300 charge-discharge cycles. They next applied the polymer coating to cathodes made from other metals, creating lithium-molybdenum and lithium-vanadium batteries. These cells also had stable capacity over 300 charge-discharge cycles. Overall, the results indicate that coated cathodes could produce not only safer Li-S batteries with long lifespans, but also efficient batteries with other metal sulfides, according to Wang’s team.

Research Report:Chelating-Type Binders toward Stable Cycling and High-Safety Transition-Metal Sulfide-Based Lithium Batteries