Solar Energy

Study reveals plunge in lithium-ion battery costs

Published

4 years ago

March 24, 2021

sarosh

Study reveals plunge in lithium-ion battery costs

The cost of the rechargeable lithium-ion batteries used for phones, laptops, and cars has fallen dramatically over the last three decades, and has been a major driver of the rapid growth of those technologies. But attempting to quantify that cost decline has produced ambiguous and conflicting results that have hampered attempts to project the technology’s future or devise useful policies and research priorities.

Now, MIT researchers have carried out an exhaustive analysis of the studies that have looked at the decline in the prices these batteries, which are the dominant rechargeable technology in today’s world. The new study looks back over three decades, including analyzing the original underlying datasets and documents whenever possible, to arrive at a clear picture of the technology’s trajectory.

The researchers found that the cost of these batteries has dropped by 97 percent since they were first commercially introduced in 1991. This rate of improvement is much faster than many analysts had claimed and is comparable to that of solar photovoltaic panels, which some had considered to be an exceptional case. The new findings are reported today in the journal Energy and Environmental Science, in a paper by MIT postdoc Micah Ziegler and Associate Professor Jessika Trancik.

While it’s clear that there have been dramatic cost declines in some clean-energy technologies such as solar and wind, Trancik says, when they started to look into the decline in prices for lithium-ion batteries, “we saw that there was substantial disagreement as to how quickly the costs of these technologies had come down.” Similar disagreements showed up in tracing other important aspects of battery development, such as the ever-improving energy density (energy stored within a given volume) and specific energy (energy stored within a given mass).

“These trends are so consequential for getting us to where we are right now, and also for thinking about what could happen in the future,” says Trancik, who is an associate professor in MIT’s Institute for Data, Systems and Society. While it was common knowledge that the decline in battery costs was an enabler of the recent growth in sales of electric vehicles, for example, it was unclear just how great that decline had been.

Through this detailed analysis, she says, “we were able to confirm that yes, lithium-ion battery technologies have improved in terms of their costs, at rates that are comparable to solar energy technology, and specifically photovoltaic modules, which are often held up as kind of the gold standard in clean energy innovation.””

It may seem odd that there was such great uncertainty and disagreement about how much lithium-ion battery costs had declined, and what factors accounted for it, but in fact much of the information is in the form of closely held corporate data that is difficult for researchers to access.

Most lithium-ion batteries are not sold directly to consumers – you can’t run down to your typical corner drugstore to pick up a replacement battery for your iPhone, your PC, or your electric car. Instead, manufacturers buy lithium-ion batteries and build them into electronics and cars. Large companies like Apple or Tesla buy batteries by the millions, or manufacture them themselves, for prices that are negotiated or internally accounted for but never publicly disclosed.

In addition to helping to boost the ongoing electrification of transportation, further declines in lithium-ion battery costs could potentially also increase the batteries’ usage in stationary applications as a way of compensating for the intermittent supply of clean energy sources such as solar and wind. Both applications could play a significant role in helping to curb the world’s emissions of climate-altering greenhouse gases.

“”I can’t overstate the importance of these trends in clean energy innovation for getting us to where we are right now, where it starts to look like we could see rapid electrification of vehicles and we are seeing the rapid growth of renewable energy technologies,” Trancik says. “”Of course, there’s so much more to do to address climate change, but this has really been a game changer.””

The new findings are not just a matter of retracing the history of battery development, but of helping to guide the future, Ziegler points out. Combing all of the published literature on the subject of the cost reductions in lithium-ion cells, he found “very different measures of the historical improvement. And across a variety of different papers, researchers were using these trends to make suggestions about how to further reduce costs of lithium-ion technologies or when they might meet cost targets.”

But because the underlying data varied so much, “the recommendations that the researchers were making could be quite different.” Some studies suggested that lithium-ion batteries would not fall in cost quickly enough for certain applications, while others were much more optimistic. Such differences in data can ultimately have a real impact on the setting of research priorities and government incentives.

The researchers dug into the original sources of the published data, in some cases finding that certain primary data had been used in multiple studies that were later cited as separate sources, or that the original data sources had been lost along the way. And while most studies have focused only on the cost, Ziegler says it became clear that such a one-dimensional analysis might underestimate how quickly lithium-ion technologies improved; in addition to cost, weight and volume are also key factors for both vehicles and portable electronics. So, the team added a second track to the study, analyzing the improvements in these parameters as well.

“Lithium-ion batteries were not adopted because they were the least expensive technology at the time,” Ziegler says. “There were less expensive battery technologies available. Lithium-ion technology was adopted because it allows you to put portable electronics into your hand, because it allows you to make power tools that last longer and have more power, and it allows us to build cars” that can provide adequate driving range. “It felt like just looking at dollars per kilowatt-hour was only telling part of the story,” he says.

That broader analysis helps to define what may be possible in the future, he adds: “We’re saying that lithium-ion technologies might improve more quickly for certain applications than would be projected by just looking at one measure of performance. By looking at multiple measures, you get essentially a clearer picture of the improvement rate, and this suggests that they could maybe improve more rapidly for applications where the restrictions on mass and volume are relaxed.”

Trancik adds the new study can play an important role in energy-related policymaking. “Published data trends on the few clean technologies that have seen major cost reductions over time, wind, solar, and now lithium-ion batteries, tend to be referenced over and over again, and not only in academic papers but in policy documents and industry reports,” she says.

“Many important climate policy conclusions are based on these few trends. For this reason, it is important to get them right. There’s a real need to treat the data with care, and to raise our game overall in dealing with technology data and tracking these trends.”

“”Battery costs determine price parity of electric vehicles with internal combustion engine vehicles,” says Venkat Viswanathan, an associate professor of mechanical engineering at Carnegie Mellon University, who was not associated with this work. “Thus, projecting battery cost declines is probably one of the most critical challenges in ensuring an accurate understanding of adoption of electric vehicles.”

Viswanathan adds that “the finding that cost declines may occur faster than previously thought will enable broader adoption, increasing volumes, and leading to further cost declines. … The datasets curated, analyzed and released with this paper will have a lasting impact on the community.”

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Solar Energy

A single molecule elevates solar module output and stability

Published

7 hours ago

April 24, 2025

sarosh

A single molecule elevates solar module output and stability

by Sophie Jenkins

London, UK (SPX) Apr 24, 2025

A new molecule developed through international collaboration has been shown to significantly improve both the performance and durability of perovskite solar cells, according to a recent study published in *Science*. The discovery centers on a synthetic ionic salt named CPMAC, which originates from buckminsterfullerene (C60) and has been shown to outperform traditional C60 in solar applications.

Researchers from the King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (KAUST) played a key role in the development of CPMAC. While C60 has long been used in perovskite solar cells due to its favorable electronic properties, it suffers from stability issues caused by weak van der Waals interactions at the interface with the perovskite layer. CPMAC was engineered to address these shortcomings.

“For over a decade, C60 has been an integral component in the development of perovskite solar cells. However, weak interactions at the perovskite/C60 interface lead to mechanical degradation that compromises long-term solar cell stability. To address this limitation, we designed a C60-derived ionic salt, CPMAC, to significantly enhance the stability of the perovskite solar cells,” explained Professor Osman Bakr, Executive Faculty of the KAUST Center of Excellence for Renewable Energy and Sustainable Technologies (CREST).

Unlike C60, CPMAC forms ionic bonds with the perovskite material, strengthening the electron transfer layer and thereby enhancing both structural stability and energy output. Cells incorporating CPMAC demonstrated a 0.6% improvement in power conversion efficiency (PCE) compared to those using C60.

Though the gain in efficiency appears modest, the impact scales up dramatically in real-world energy production. “When we deal with the scale of a typical power station, the additional electricity generated even from a fraction of a percentage point is quite significant,” said Hongwei Zhu, a research scientist at KAUST.

Beyond efficiency gains, CPMAC also enhanced device longevity. Under accelerated aging tests involving high heat and humidity over 2,000 hours, solar cells containing CPMAC retained a significantly higher portion of their efficiency. Specifically, their degradation was one third that observed in cells using conventional C60.

Further performance evaluation involved assembling the cells into four-cell modules, offering a closer approximation to commercial-scale solar panels. These tests reinforced the molecule’s advantage in both durability and output.

The key to CPMAC’s success lies in its capacity to reduce defects within the electron transfer layer, thanks to the formation of robust ionic bonds. This approach circumvents the limitations posed by van der Waals forces typical of unmodified C60 structures.

Research Report:C60-based ionic salt electron shuttle for high-performance inverted perovskite solar modules

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Solar Energy

Indonesia says China’s Huayou to replace LGES in EV battery project

Published

13 hours ago

April 24, 2025

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Indonesia says China’s Huayou to replace LGES in EV battery project

by AFP Staff Writers

Jakarta (AFP) April 23, 2025

China’s Zhejiang Huayou Cobalt is replacing South Korea’s LG Energy Solution as a strategic investor in a multibillion-dollar project to build an electric vehicle battery joint venture in Indonesia, officials said on Wednesday.

The South Korean company, which was part of a consortium that signed a 142 trillion rupiah ($8.4 billion) “Grand Project” in 2020, announced its withdrawal from the project this week, citing factors including market conditions and the investment environment.

Energy and Mineral Resources Minister Bahlil Lahadalia said LG Energy Solution’s decision would not significantly affect the project, which aims to establish a local electric vehicle battery value chain in Indonesia.

“Changes only occur at the investor level, where LG no longer continue its involvement… and has been replaced by a strategic partner from China, namely Huayou,” Bahlil said in a statement.

“Nothing has changed from the initial goal, namely making Indonesia as the center of the world’s electric vehicle industry.”

Indonesia, home to the world’s largest nickel reserve, has been seeking to position itself as a key player in the global electric vehicle supply chain by leveraging its vast reserve of the critical mineral to attract investments.

The government decided not to move forward with the South Korean company in the project due to the long negotiation process with the firm to realise its investment, Investment Minister Rosan Roeslani said.

Rosan cited Huayou’s familiarity with Indonesia as one of the reasons why the government chose the company to succeed LG Energy Solution.

“Huayou had invested in Indonesia,” Rosan said.

“They have sources to develop the industry going forward.”

LG Energy Solution said in a statement on Tuesday that it will continue to explore “various avenues of collaboration” with the Indonesian government, including in its battery joint venture.

HLI Green Power, a joint venture between LG Energy Solution and Hyundai Motor Group, operates Indonesia’s first electric vehicle battery plant, which was launched in 2024 with a production capacity of up to 10 Gigawatt hours (GWh) of cells annually.

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Solar Energy

Politecnico di Milano explores global potential of agrivoltaics for land use harmony

Published

1 day ago

April 23, 2025

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Politecnico di Milano explores global potential of agrivoltaics for land use harmony

by Erica Marchand

Paris, France (SPX) Apr 23, 2025

A research team from the Politecnico di Milano has presented new insights into how agrivoltaic systems could resolve growing tensions over land use between agricultural production and solar energy development. Led by Maddalena Curioni, Nikolas Galli, Giampaolo Manzolini, and Maria Cristina Rulli, the study demonstrates that integrating photovoltaic panels with crop cultivation can significantly mitigate land-use conflict while maintaining food output.

Published in the journal Earth’s Future, the study highlights that between 13% and 16% of existing ground-mounted solar installations have displaced former farmland, underscoring the competition for arable land. In contrast, the researchers propose that deploying agrivoltaic systems on between 22% and 35% of non-irrigated agricultural land could enable dual use without substantially affecting crop yields.

Using a spatial agro-hydrological model, the researchers simulated how 22 crop types respond to varying degrees of solar shading from photovoltaic panels. Their simulations covered a broad range of climates and geographies, generating a global suitability map for agrivoltaic deployment. The results underscore the feasibility of this approach in many regions, especially those with compatible crops and moderate solar intensity.

“Agrivoltaics cannot be applied everywhere, but according to our results, it would be possible to combine cultivation and energy production in many areas of the world without significant reductions in yield,” said Nikolas Galli, researcher at the Glob3Science Lab and co-author of the study.

Giampaolo Manzolini, professor in the Department of Energy, noted additional benefits: “Using the land for both cultivation and photovoltaic systems increases overall output per occupied surface area while reducing production costs. In addition, installing crops underneath the photovoltaic panels reduces the panel operating temperature and increases their efficiency.”

“This technology could help reduce land competition while improving the sustainability of agricultural and energy systems,” added Maria Cristina Rulli, who coordinated the research.

The team emphasizes that their findings could inform strategic policy decisions and investment strategies aimed at maximizing land productivity while supporting both food security and renewable energy goals.

Research Report:Global Land-Water Competition and Synergy Between Solar Energy and Agriculture